In May, Ukrainian traders contracted 620 tons of Ukrainian sunflower oil for export, which is showing very fast growth, but in July-August, the export rate may slow down, according to the analytical cooperative “Start”, created within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council (AAC).
“Sunflower oil prices are rising due to limited supply on the world market. The main producers of sunflower oil in the world are Russia and Ukraine. Russia exports the majority of its production to China, while other buying countries turn to Ukraine, where supply is limited. This leads to higher prices for sunflower oil,” the analysts explained.
According to them, the purchase price for sunflower in Ukraine has already exceeded 18 thousand UAH/ton. However, the mills are ready to buy it even at high prices due to low stocks. In addition, the resumption of port operations in March-February led to a significant reduction in sunflower stocks, which also affects the price increase.
Processing plants are operating with minimal profit in anticipation of the new oilseed season. The current prices often bring minimal profit or even losses to the plants, but their main goal is to maintain operations until the rapeseed season starts, when a new crop will be processed, experts believe.
“This week we expect further growth in sunflower prices. The crushing plants will continue to buy sunflower at the current prices, which range from 18.1-18.2 thousand UAH. By the end of the week and early next year, purchase prices are expected to reach 19 thousand UAH/ton,” Pusk predicts.
In the first nine months of the 2023-2024 marketing year (MY), Kernel Agro Holding exported 1 million tons of sunflower oil in bulk to almost 30 countries, the company’s press service reported on Facebook.
“We remain the largest agricultural exporter of sunflower oil and are among the TOP-3 total exports of Ukraine,” the statement said.
According to the agroholding, about 50% of the total volume of sunflower oil was supplied to India, 8% to the UAE, 7% to China and Spain, 5% to Italy, and 2% to Iraq, Singapore, Switzerland, Turkey, and Hong Kong.
“To expand the export opportunities of the entire industry, last year we started offering our infrastructure capacities to other agricultural producers in the market. At the company’s terminals in Odesa region, we provide transshipment services for grain crops and vegetable oil,” Kernel said.
In addition, the agricultural holding is completing the construction of one of the largest oil extraction plants in Europe in Starokonstantinov, Khmelnytsky region. Its processing capacity will be 1 million tons of seeds per year.
“This will allow us to increase the export of vegetable oil, a value-added product, and support agricultural producers in the region by providing them with opportunities to sell their products,” the agricultural holding explained.
As reported, Kernel processed 816 thsd tonnes of sunflower seeds in the third quarter of fiscal year (FY) 2024, up 10% year-on-year.
At the same time, sales of sunflower oil in January-March 2024 increased by 44% year-on-year to 394 thsd tonnes, totaling 1,103 thsd tonnes in the first nine months of 2024.
Before the war, Kernel Agro Holding was the world’s leading producer of sunflower oil (approximately 7% of global production) and its exports (approximately 12%). It is one of the largest producers and sellers of bottled oil in Ukraine. In addition, it is engaged in the cultivation and sale of agricultural products.
Kernel’s net profit for FY2023 amounted to $299 million, while the company ended the previous year with a net loss of $41 million. The agricultural holding’s revenue for FY2023 decreased by 35% to $3.455 billion, but EBITDA increased 2.5 times to $544 million.
In the first half of FY2024, Kernel’s net profit fell 3.6 times compared to the first half of FY2023, to $102 million, and EBITDA halved to $223 million, with revenue down 16% to $1.59 billion.
Over the past week, the prices for sunflower oil in Ukrainian ports increased by $5-10 per ton on CPT-port terms due to the shortage of the product both in Ukraine and on the world market, APK-Inform news agency reported.
“In Ukrainian ports, the demand prices for sunflower oil increased by $5-10/ton on CPT-port terms over the week, due to a small number of offers of this product and a similar trend in the global vegetable oil market,” the agency said in a statement.
As of May 10, the demand prices for sunflower oil were reported mainly in the range of $810-820/ton CPT-port, analysts said.
The exports of sunflower oil from Ukraine in September-April of 2023-2024 marketing year (MY) totaled over 4.4 mln tonnes, up 17% compared to the same period of the previous season, and became the second largest export volume in the history after 2019-2020 MY, when the exports reached 4.49 mln tonnes in the same period, APK-Inform news agency reported.
“The demand for this product in the current season from the key global importers was boosted by the more attractive price of sunflower oil compared to other vegetable oils, which resulted in the active increase of sunflower processing by the Ukrainian plants,” the analysts explained.
They also pointed out that an important factor is ensuring relatively stable shipments of oil by sea.
The agency’s experts reminded that they estimated the export of sunflower oil for the season-2023/24 at 5.6 mln tonnes (+4% compared to April estimates; -1% compared to 2022-2023 MY). However, given that about 79% of the forecast has already been exported, a significant decline in monthly shipments is expected by the end of the season.
“The decrease of the exports of the product in May-August of the current season may be due to the decrease of sunflower crushing amid the depletion of the stocks, which are estimated as the minimum for the last three seasons in the whole country as of the beginning of May”, – summarized APK-Inform.
In the third quarter of fiscal year 2024, Kernel processed 816 thousand tons of sunflower seeds, up 10% year-on-year.
According to the company’s announcement on the Warsaw Stock Exchange on Tuesday, six crushing plants of the agricultural holding operated at almost full capacity, while two plants were idle due to the proximity to the Russian border and the war zone.
In addition, at the end of February, Kernel started commissioning the Starokonstantinovka oilseed processing plant in Khmelnytsky region. At the time of writing, the plant has reached over 90% of its processing capacity at the commissioning stage. The plant is expected to be fully operational by May 2024 and reach its maximum processing capacity of 1 million tons of sunflower seeds annually.
At the same time, sales of sunflower oil in January-March 2024 increased by 44% year-on-year to 394 thsd tonnes, totaling 1,103 thsd tonnes in 9M2024.
Sales of bottled sunflower oil in the third quarter of FY2024 amounted to 5% of total sales (19 thousand tons).
Kernel emphasized that the volume of loading of the group’s granaries in the third quarter of fiscal year 2024 was at a seasonally low level – 254 thousand tons, which amounted to 2.7 million tons for 9 months of fiscal year 2024, which corresponds to the same period last year.
The export terminal’s transshipment volume for the reporting period increased to 2,464 thsd tonnes of grain, sunflower oil and meal, which showed a 2.3-fold increase. This was driven by consistent export activity via the Black Sea, increased volumes of sunflower oil produced, transshipment through port terminals acquired earlier in the season, along with the provision of transshipment services to third parties.
Despite the high transshipment volumes of the terminals, the volume of grain exports from Ukraine in January-March amounted to 1.877 thousand tons, which is 2.3 times more than in the same period last year, the company stated.
Before the war, Kernel Agro Holding was the world’s leading producer of sunflower oil (approximately 7% of global production) and its exports (approximately 12%). It is one of the largest producers and sellers of bottled oil in Ukraine. In addition, it is engaged in the cultivation and sale of agricultural products.
Kernel’s net profit for FY2023 amounted to $299 million, while the company ended the previous year with a net loss of $41 million. The agricultural holding’s revenue for FY2023 decreased by 35% to $3.455 billion, but EBITDA increased 2.5 times to $544 million.
In the first half of FY2024, Kernel’s net profit fell 3.6 times compared to the first half of FY2023, to $102 million, and EBITDA halved to $223 million, with revenue down 16% to $1.59 billion.
Moldovan Agriculture and Food Minister Vladimir Bola will meet on Monday with sunflower seed producers and processors due to the difficult situation in his country with sunflower oil production. According to the Moldovan news agency Infotag, the decision to discuss the problem was made after Floarea Soarelui, the largest oil producer, shut down two plants. The producers said they had no raw materials, as farmers refused to sell their seeds at the current market price, and sunflower imports are strictly licensed.
“Today, Moldova’s sunflower seed stocks are about 350 thsd tonnes, so any statements about lack of stocks are speculation. At the same time, the pricing policy should be objective, fair and responsible towards the end consumer,” Bola wrote on Facebook.
He emphasized that “by abandoning political statements and relying solely on the economic component,” the Ministry of Agriculture of Moldova will provide a platform for dialogue between seed producers and processors.
“Each party will provide real figures so that we can make decisions and find viable solutions for the new sunflower harvest,” Bola said.
As reported, Moldova has extended the licensing of sunflower seed imports from Ukraine for three months.
