Despite the negative expectations, Ukraine retained its leadership in the global sunflower oil market in 2023-2024 marketing year (MY), accounting for 42% of the global production, while Russia accounted for 29%, UkrAgroConsult, a Ukrainian information and analytical agency, reports.
The analysts referred to the forecast of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, according to which in 2023-2024 MY the forecast for Ukraine’s gross sunflower production due to higher yields was increased by 27% to 15.5 mln tonnes compared to 2022-2023 MY, and for Russia – by 5% to 17.1 mln tonnes.
The high exports of sunflower oil were achieved due to the increase in harvest. Stable operation of the sea corridor is becoming an important point for Ukraine in realization of the export potential: the country increased exports by 9% compared to 2022-2023 MY, Russia – by 10%, experts noted.
They noted that since the beginning of the war, the markets for sunflower oil have been redistributed. For Ukraine, the European Union has become the key sales destination. In addition, Turkey has reoriented its purchases from Russia to Ukraine, while India and China continued to increase Russian imports.
According to analysts’ forecast, 2024-2025 MY will be a bad harvest year for sunflower. According to the current USDA forecast for September 2024, the global sunflower production is estimated to be the lowest in the last four seasons due to unfavorable weather conditions in the key producing countries – 50.6 mln tonnes, which is 10% less than the previous season. At the same time, Ukraine is expected to reduce the production of this crop by 19% to 12.5 mln tonnes compared to 2023-2024 MY, and Russia – by 6% to 16.0 mln tonnes.
“Ukraine will retain the leadership, but the share in the global production will decrease to 41% vs. 42% in 2023/24 MY in favor of Russia – 33% vs. 29%. The forecast for Russia seems quite optimistic,” UkrAgroConsult stated.
MHP Food and Agricultural Holding, Ukraine’s largest chicken producer, reduced sales of sunflower oil by 7% to 229.27 thousand tons in January-June 2024 compared to the same period last year.
“This is mainly due to a decrease in the production of sunflower cake,” the holding said in a report on the London Stock Exchange on Friday.
“In January-June 2024, MHP also reduced sales of soybean oil by 15%, to 23.82 thousand tons, compared to the same period last year, but they remained stable compared to the previous quarter.
Revenues of the vegetable oils segment in January-June 2024 decreased by 32% to $236 mln, which led to a decrease in adjusted EBITDA (excluding IFRS 16) to $27 mln compared to $48 mln in the same period last year, which the agricultural holding explains by the decline in world oil prices.
“MHP is the largest chicken producer in Ukraine. The company produces grain, sunflower oil, and meat processing products.
As reported, the company received $142 million in net profit in 2023 compared to $231 million in net loss a year earlier. The group’s revenue increased by 14% to $3.021 billion last year.
“In the second quarter of 2024, MHP earned $29 million in net profit, up 71% compared to the second quarter of 2023. Its EBITDA increased by 40% to $153 million, while revenue decreased by 5% to $770 million. The agroholding attributed the increase in profitability to improved performance in the crop sector.
Overall, net profit decreased by 33% to $45 million for the half-year, due to foreign exchange losses of $81 million against $5 million in the first half of 2023. EBITDA increased by 20% to $280 million on a 4% decrease in revenue to $1.489 billion, driven by crop production.
MHP’s founder, majority shareholder and Chairman of the Board is Ukrainian businessman Yuriy Kosyuk.
For the first time, Ukraine will send 2,453.26 tons of sunflower oil to five African countries – the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mozambique, Djibouti, Mauritania, and Palestine – as part of the humanitarian food initiative Grain from Ukraine, the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food reports.
“We are fulfilling the mission of our country, ensuring food security in the world. And we are expanding humanitarian supplies, as announced by President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy during the second Grain from Ukraine summit. We supply not only grain, but also corn, peas, and now sunflower oil. This oil will be shipped in containers from the ports of Greater Odesa,” said Deputy Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Markiyan Dmytrasevych.
Marianne Ward, Acting Director of the UN World Food Program in Ukraine, said that more than 200 thousand tons of agricultural products will be shipped under Grain from Ukraine. Many donor countries have already joined the initiative, including Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Iceland, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Sweden, and Luxembourg.
Mr. Dmytrasevych emphasized the important role of the UN World Food Program in supporting Ukrainians from the frontline areas and internally displaced persons. According to him, in the near future Ukraine will transfer grain for processing to the World Food Program for the production of pasta and bread. These goods will be sent to residents of the frontline areas.
The Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food together with the World Food Program (WFP) are sending humanitarian goods under the Grain from Ukraine program.
As reported, a total of 10 ships with more than 200 thousand tons of agricultural products were sent within the initiative to Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya, Yemen, Nigeria, Sudan, Palestine, and Yemen.
The Grain from Ukraine initiative was launched by President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy in partnership with the UN World Food Program (WFP) to minimize the damage caused to the global food system by Russian aggression and the attempted blockade of Ukrainian ports.
In May, Ukrainian traders contracted 620 tons of Ukrainian sunflower oil for export, which is showing very fast growth, but in July-August, the export rate may slow down, according to the analytical cooperative “Start”, created within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council (AAC).
“Sunflower oil prices are rising due to limited supply on the world market. The main producers of sunflower oil in the world are Russia and Ukraine. Russia exports the majority of its production to China, while other buying countries turn to Ukraine, where supply is limited. This leads to higher prices for sunflower oil,” the analysts explained.
According to them, the purchase price for sunflower in Ukraine has already exceeded 18 thousand UAH/ton. However, the mills are ready to buy it even at high prices due to low stocks. In addition, the resumption of port operations in March-February led to a significant reduction in sunflower stocks, which also affects the price increase.
Processing plants are operating with minimal profit in anticipation of the new oilseed season. The current prices often bring minimal profit or even losses to the plants, but their main goal is to maintain operations until the rapeseed season starts, when a new crop will be processed, experts believe.
“This week we expect further growth in sunflower prices. The crushing plants will continue to buy sunflower at the current prices, which range from 18.1-18.2 thousand UAH. By the end of the week and early next year, purchase prices are expected to reach 19 thousand UAH/ton,” Pusk predicts.
In the first nine months of the 2023-2024 marketing year (MY), Kernel Agro Holding exported 1 million tons of sunflower oil in bulk to almost 30 countries, the company’s press service reported on Facebook.
“We remain the largest agricultural exporter of sunflower oil and are among the TOP-3 total exports of Ukraine,” the statement said.
According to the agroholding, about 50% of the total volume of sunflower oil was supplied to India, 8% to the UAE, 7% to China and Spain, 5% to Italy, and 2% to Iraq, Singapore, Switzerland, Turkey, and Hong Kong.
“To expand the export opportunities of the entire industry, last year we started offering our infrastructure capacities to other agricultural producers in the market. At the company’s terminals in Odesa region, we provide transshipment services for grain crops and vegetable oil,” Kernel said.
In addition, the agricultural holding is completing the construction of one of the largest oil extraction plants in Europe in Starokonstantinov, Khmelnytsky region. Its processing capacity will be 1 million tons of seeds per year.
“This will allow us to increase the export of vegetable oil, a value-added product, and support agricultural producers in the region by providing them with opportunities to sell their products,” the agricultural holding explained.
As reported, Kernel processed 816 thsd tonnes of sunflower seeds in the third quarter of fiscal year (FY) 2024, up 10% year-on-year.
At the same time, sales of sunflower oil in January-March 2024 increased by 44% year-on-year to 394 thsd tonnes, totaling 1,103 thsd tonnes in the first nine months of 2024.
Before the war, Kernel Agro Holding was the world’s leading producer of sunflower oil (approximately 7% of global production) and its exports (approximately 12%). It is one of the largest producers and sellers of bottled oil in Ukraine. In addition, it is engaged in the cultivation and sale of agricultural products.
Kernel’s net profit for FY2023 amounted to $299 million, while the company ended the previous year with a net loss of $41 million. The agricultural holding’s revenue for FY2023 decreased by 35% to $3.455 billion, but EBITDA increased 2.5 times to $544 million.
In the first half of FY2024, Kernel’s net profit fell 3.6 times compared to the first half of FY2023, to $102 million, and EBITDA halved to $223 million, with revenue down 16% to $1.59 billion.
Over the past week, the prices for sunflower oil in Ukrainian ports increased by $5-10 per ton on CPT-port terms due to the shortage of the product both in Ukraine and on the world market, APK-Inform news agency reported.
“In Ukrainian ports, the demand prices for sunflower oil increased by $5-10/ton on CPT-port terms over the week, due to a small number of offers of this product and a similar trend in the global vegetable oil market,” the agency said in a statement.
As of May 10, the demand prices for sunflower oil were reported mainly in the range of $810-820/ton CPT-port, analysts said.
