Ukraine retains its status as the world’s largest exporter of sunflower oil, with a market share of about 33%, even as Russia actively expands its processing capacity and attempts to displace Ukrainian producers from their traditional markets.
This was reported by Maksym Kharchenko, an analyst at the information and analytical agency “UkrAgroConsult.”
“Russia is constantly breathing down our necks, ramping up processing and, in fact, hot on our heels. They have already partially managed to take advantage of the situation that arose after 2022 and capture our traditional market in India, where we were the No. 1 supplier. A similar picture is emerging in the markets of Turkey and Italy, where the competitor is significantly strengthening its presence,” he said at the Black Sea Grain.Kyiv conference on Wednesday.
According to the analyst, Ukraine’s sunflower processing industry remains critically dependent on exports, as domestic consumption does not exceed 300,000 tons. Despite an export potential of up to 6 million tons of oil per year, shipment volumes have fallen short of 5 million tons in recent years due to logistics and yield issues. It is noteworthy that in February 2026, the margin for sunflower processing in Ukraine remained at around 7%.
According to the agency’s data, the top 5 global sunflower oil exporters include Ukraine (33%), Russia (30%), Argentina (14%), as well as Turkey and Kazakhstan (5% each).
“Ukrainian oil remains in the premium segment. We expect supply in the Black Sea region to increase, which may put some downward pressure on prices. However, given the instability in the Middle East and the rising cost of soybean oil, our product will remain competitive,” says Kharchenko.
The expert added that competition is intensifying in other segments as well. In the new 2026/2027 season, Russia has increased its winter rapeseed acreage by more than 50%, targeting the Chinese market. Although Ukraine’s and Russia’s interests in the rapeseed oil market currently hardly overlap, UkrAgroConsult forecasts an inevitable clash of interests in the future.
At the same time, Ukraine is demonstrating rapid growth in rapeseed oil exports—shipment volumes are already twice as high as last year’s. Key buyers include EU countries (Poland, Spain, Italy) and Thailand. The situation is similar with soybeans: soybean meal exports have jumped by 50%, with Poland becoming the main market.
The agency noted that domestic processing was supported by the 10% export duty on rapeseed and soybeans introduced by Ukraine in 2025. This allowed raw materials to remain in the country and boosted sales of value-added products.
UkrAgroConsult expects oilseed production in Ukraine to continue growing in the 2026/2027 season. In particular, the sunflower harvest could reach 13.7 million tons. Kharchenko emphasized that despite the risks of war, the oilseed sector is recovering the fastest, and the acreage planted with these crops has already exceeded pre-2022 levels.
Ukrainian oil and fat industry companies expect sunflower oil exports to decline by 6.4% in the 2025/26 marketing year—to 4.4 million tons from 4.7 million tons the previous season, according to the UkroliyaProm association.
According to the association’s estimates, sunflower oil production this season will also decline by 10%—to 4.6 million tons, down from 5.1 million tons in the previous marketing year.
The association explained that the decline in the sunflower segment is linked to the lowest sunflower yield in the past 10 years, which fell by 16.8%, as well as a 7.8% reduction in harvested acreage.
At the same time, despite the decrease in physical shipment volumes, foreign exchange revenue from sunflower oil exports is growing thanks to higher global prices.
According to data from the National Scientific Center “Institute of Agricultural Economics,” the profitability of sunflowers in 2025 stood at 54.7%, which remains one of the highest indicators among agricultural crops and is second only to rye at 56.4%.
Ukroliyaprom emphasized that additional pressure on the industry is being exerted by energy capacity constraints due to shelling of critical infrastructure, threats to the operation of deep-water ports, and attacks on the railway network, which is vital for exports to EU countries.
Sunflower oil exports from Ukraine in the 2025/2026 marketing year (MY) are projected at 4.1 million tons. This is 14% less than the previous season’s figure, the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UAC) reported on Facebook.
According to analysts, the main reason for the decline was a reduction in raw material volumes. Specifically, in the current season, the total area planted with sunflowers was 5.2 million hectares, which is 2.6% less than in the previous MY. Difficult weather conditions, particularly a lack of rainfall, led to a decrease in yield to 2.0 t/ha.
“As a result, the seed harvest is expected to reach 10.1 million tons. This is 10.6% less than in the previous marketing year and 13.5% below the average for the last five years,” experts predict.
Due to the smaller harvest, UCAB estimates processing volumes at 10.1 million tons, meaning oil production will drop by 13.1% to 4.3 million tons. Meanwhile, the domestic market will consume only about 240,000 tons of the product.
“Domestic consumption in Ukraine continues to decline due to the partial occupation of territories, forced population migration, and military operations. Therefore, the vast majority of the product will be exported,” explained UCAB, noting that in 2025, sunflower oil alone generated the highest foreign exchange revenue among the entire agricultural sector.
The association expressed confidence that despite the negative production trends, Ukrainian sunflower oil retains its position as a key export commodity in the EU, Middle East, and Asian markets.
In July 2025-February 2026, Ukraine retained its position as the leading supplier of sunflower oil to the European Union and provided almost 92% of the total imports of this product by the bloc’s countries, according to the specialized publication OFI Magazine, citing data from the European Commission.
According to a report by the German Union for the Promotion of Plants and Proteins (UFOP), in the first seven months of the 2025-2026 marketing year (MY, July-June), the EU-27 countries imported a total of just under 1.04 million tons of sunflower oil. Despite its leadership, the total import figure decreased compared to the same period last year, when it amounted to 1.28 million tons.
According to UFOP estimates, the annual sunflower harvest in Ukraine decreased from 13 million tons in 2024 to 10.5 million tons in 2025, as the decline in harvest led to a reduction in processing volumes and limited sunflower oil exports.
Researchers at Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft also noted significant pressure from Russian attacks on infrastructure and port facilities, which complicated oil logistics.
Market observers, in turn, noted the stabilization of sunflower oil export flows despite security risks.
Moldova (5% of the market) and Serbia (less than 2%) ranked second and third among suppliers. Moldova showed an increase in supplies, while Serbia lagged significantly behind the previous year’s level.
Sunflower oil exports from Ukraine in August 2025 fell to 150,000 tons, which was the lowest monthly volume in more than three years and the second lowest monthly figure in almost 14 seasons, according to the information and analytical agency APK-Inform.
Analysts noted that the decline occurred in all major areas, in particular, there were no deliveries to India.
“The decline in exports of this product during the period was due to seasonal factors, in particular, a reduction in the supply of sunflower seeds on the domestic market, which limited processing, as well as a decline in demand from some importers in anticipation of cheaper oil from the new harvest,” experts explained.
They noted that, according to the results of the current 2024-2025 marketing year, Ukraine exported 4.73 million tons of sunflower oil, which is 24% less than the previous season and the lowest figure for the last three seasons.
“The main factors that limited exports of this product from Ukraine were the smaller sunflower harvest in 2024 and the low margin on its processing,” analysts recalled, adding that supplies to the main markets in the season that has just ended increased slightly.
The top three importers of Ukrainian oil were India (767,000 tons; +44% compared to 2023/24 MY), Spain (656,000 tons; +11%), and Italy (504,000 tons; +28%).
“Overall, the current season has been quite difficult for the Ukrainian sunflower processing sector, forcing factories to seek better profitability in soybean and rapeseed processing, and also prompting the promotion of ”soybean-rapeseed amendments,” APK-Inform summarized.
Ukraine is increasing exports of sunflower oil to India. In July 2025, it supplied 78,000 tons to this country, which is 57% more than in June, according to the analytical agency UkrAgroConsult.
The agency cited Indian sources, according to which Ukrainian oil accounted for 39% of total imports of this product to India in July, which amounted to 200,000 tons. Thus, for the first time since the start of the war,
Ukraine has overtaken Russia, whose exports to India in this segment amounted to 49,000 tons, or 25% of the total volume imported into the country.
“In recent seasons, Russia has dominated the Indian sunflower oil market, while Ukraine’s share has fluctuated between 13% and 34%. However, in the second half of the 2024/25 season, Russian producers reduced production volumes due to low profitability, which led to a decrease in supply on foreign markets. An additional factor was the non-zero export duty on Russian oil,” experts explained.
According to analysts, Ukraine exported 767,000 tons of sunflower oil to India between September 2024 and July 2025, which is 55% more than in the same period of the previous season.
“This figure is a record since 2022, confirming India’s position as a key importer of Ukrainian oil. The growth in exports reflects the stable recovery of Ukraine’s position in the global market,” UkrAgroConsult concluded.
