The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its report for June published on Friday increased the forecast for Ukrainian corn crop for trade year (TY) 2022/23 by 5 million tonnes compared to the forecast a month ago, to 25 million tonnes, while keeping the export estimate at the level of 9 million tonnes.
U.S. experts increased the forecast for carryovers for 2022/23 TY by 4 million tonnes, to 12.07 million tonnes compared to 6.77 million tonnes for 2021/22 TY.
In addition, USDA raised the estimate of domestic consumption in 2022/23 TY by 1.5 million tonnes, to 10.7 million tonnes.
According to the report, in general, the forecast for the feed grain harvest in Ukraine for 2022/23 TY has been increased by 5.2 million tonnes, to 31.76 million tonnes, although at the same time, the export estimate has been reduced by 0.2 million tonnes, to 10.83 million tonnes.
U.S. experts have increased the forecast of feed grain carryovers following the results of 2022/23 TY by 3.9 million tonnes, to 13.06 million tonnes compared to 7.77 million tonnes at its beginning.
In addition, USDA raised the estimate of domestic consumption of feed grains in 2022/23 TY by 1.5 million tonnes, to 15.65 million tonnes.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture recalled that in 2020/21 TY, the wheat harvest in Ukraine amounted to 25.42 million tonnes, and exports reached 16.85 million tonnes. According to its estimates, in 2021/22 TY, with a crop that has grown to 33.01 million tonnes, exports will increase to 19 million tonnes, and carryovers – from 1.51 to 5.61 million tonnes. In addition, U.S. experts expect domestic wheat consumption in Ukraine to grow to 10 million tonnes in 2021/22 TY from 8.7 million tonnes in the previous TY due to livestock.
As for corn, according to the report, in the past 2020/21 TY, its harvest in Ukraine was 30.3 million tonnes, and exports – 23.86 million tonnes. According to USDA estimates, in this ending trade year, with a corn crop that has grown to 42.13 million tonnes, its exports will decrease to 23 million tonnes, and carryovers will jump from 0.83 to 6.77 million tonnes. In addition, U.S. experts expect domestic corn consumption in Ukraine to grow to 13.2 million tonnes in 2021/22 TY from 7.1 million tonnes in the previous TY, also due to livestock.
In general, the feed grain harvest in Ukraine in 2020/21 TY, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, was 39.59 million tonnes, and exports were 28.15 million tonnes. According to USDA estimates, in this ending TY, with a coarse grain harvest that has grown to 53.51 million tonnes, it will increase only to 29.06 million tonnes, and carryovers will jump from 1.65 to 7.77 million tonnes. In addition, the experts expect in 2021/22 TY an increase in domestic consumption of coarse grains in Ukraine to 18.37 million tonnes from 12.41 million tonnes in the previous TY, also due to livestock.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in the report for August improved the forecast for the export of Ukrainian wheat in the 2021/2022 marketing year (MY, July-June) by 2.5 million tonnes compared to the forecast in July, to 23.5 million tonnes.
The forecast for wheat harvest in Ukraine in the new marketing year has been increased by 3 million tonnes compared to the July forecast, to a record 33 million tonnes. As noted in the USDA, this figure has been increased due to the expansion of the area under this crop, as well as due to its higher yield this season.
In the August report, the USDA also improved the forecast for the corn crop and its exports from Ukraine in 2021/2022 MY by 1.5 million tonnes compared to the July forecast. Thus, corn production is expected to grow from 37.5 million tonnes to 39 million tonnes, its export – from 30.5 million tonnes to 32 million tonnes. As explained, the forecast for corn harvest in Ukraine has been increased, as the reduction in acreage under this crop is more than offset by an increase in its yield prospects.
As reported, since the beginning of 2021/2022 MY and as of August 6, 2021, Ukraine has exported 3.63 million tonnes of grains and legumes, which is 12% more than on the same date of the previous MY. It also exported 1.31 million tonnes of barley (23.2% more compared to the same date in 2020/2021MY), 1.25 million tonnes of wheat (a quarter less), 1.05 million tonnes of corn (2.1 times more), 13,500 tonnes of flour (1.6 times less).
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) predicts that export of vegetable oil from Ukraine in the 2019/20 agricultural year (September-August) will be 6.12 million tonnes, which is 90,000 tonnes less than in 2018/19 agri-year (6.21 million tonnes).
According to the May report, forecast for oilseed crushing for 2019/20 agri-year were improved by 150,000 tonnes, to 16.8 million tonnes.
USDA said that next agri-year sunflower seed production in Ukraine could decrease by 200,000 tonnes year-over-year, to 14.8 million tonnes, meal – by 123,000 tonnes, to 5.99 million tonnes and oil – by 129,000 tonnes, to 6.24 million tonnes.
Export of sunflower seeds in 2019/20 agri-year should grow by 50%, to 150,000 tonnes, meal – by 6%, to 4.7 million tonnes and oil – by 3.4%, to 5.6 million tonnes.
