Unrealized exchange commodities, growing losses in dry milk and butter production, and falling butter prices in Europe and worldwide are holding back the growth of raw milk prices in Ukraine, according to the Association of Milk Producers (AMP).
The industry association noted that the average purchase price of extra-grade milk as of October 6 was UAH 17.45/kg excluding VAT, which is UAH 0.1 more than in the previous month, Prices for premium milk (UAH 17.15/kg excluding VAT) and first-grade milk (UAH 16.80/kg excluding VAT) remained unchanged.
“Prices also remained stable compared to the results of monitoring in the second half of September. Compared to the same period last year, the price of extra grade milk decreased by 25 kopecks,” experts noted.
According to AVM analyst Georgiy Kukhaleishvili, many factors are holding back the growth of raw milk prices in Ukraine. Currently, the supply of exchange goods on the domestic market exceeds demand. Milk processing enterprises have been working at full capacity since mid-August after the suspension of milk exports to the EU following the exhaustion of quotas. At the same time, demand on the domestic market remains low due to a decrease in the number of consumers and a reduction in the purchasing power of the population. Sales of dairy products in supermarkets are growing only when promotional discounts are offered. Warehouses in Ukraine are almost completely filled with exchange goods, which puts pressure on milk prices.
According to the ABM, the situation with butter in the EU is indicative, as it has fallen in price by 24% over the past two months due to the arrival of American butter on the European market at a price of EUR 5,000/ton. In such conditions, European traders are not interested in buying Ukrainian butter, which costs more than American butter. The increase in electricity costs affects the growth of the cost of Ukrainian products and makes it difficult to compete with Americans in the European market, analysts explain.
In Ukraine, in the second half of October, there is a possibility of a maximum price reduction for extra-grade and higher-grade raw milk due to the growing unprofitability of dry milk and butter production at milk processing enterprises and a decline in world prices for butter, they predict.
“However, on October 13, new quotas for the export of dairy products to the EU for Ukrainian companies are expected to be signed. Quotas for butter have increased from 5,000 tons to 7,000 tons, as well as for dry milk. Dairy exports to the EU are expected to resume on October 28, after the quotas come into force in 15 days, which may curb the fall in raw milk prices in Ukraine,” the ABM notes.
The national postal operator Ukrposhta has announced that from October 1, it will reduce rates for sending small PRIME parcels (up to 2 kg) to the US by $1.5-2, and they will cost from 260 UAH, which is less than before, according to the company’s CEO Ihor Smelyansky.
“To support Ukrainian exporters during the busiest pre-holiday sales season in the US, which accounts for more than 25% of annual sales, Ukrposhta… Starting October 1, rates for small PRIME packages will start at 260 hryvnia, which is $1.5-2 less than before,” the company’s CEO Ihor Smelyansky wrote on Facebook on Tuesday.
He specified that this refers to delivery within seven days to more than 15,000 branches throughout the United States.
According to him, in partnership with DHL, Nordi, and Lufthansa, a logistics chain has been built, including parcel processing in Ukraine within 24 hours, delivery to London or Frankfurt within 34-40 hours, then the parcel goes to recipients in the US: New York, Miami, Chicago, Los Angeles.
According to Smiliansky, the introduction of US customs duties on postal items worth up to $800, with a 10% duty for Ukraine compared to 15% for the EU, 25% for Moldova, and 45% for Switzerland, gives Ukrainian small businesses the opportunity to maintain their positions and even increase their volumes, especially given that many countries have not yet resumed deliveries to the US.
Smiliansky added that Ukrposhta has a share of over 50% in the international delivery market.
According to information on the company’s website, the current cost of sending a small PRIME package (no side exceeding 60 cm, and the sum of all measurements not exceeding 90 cm) weighing 100 g to the US is UAH 321.64, and 2 kg – UAH 1,135.6.
In terms of total trade volume, Ukraine cooperates most closely with China, Poland, and Germany. These countries form the basis of the state’s foreign economic relations, exerting a critical influence on imports and exports.
China remains the leader with a total trade volume of $8.99 billion. Poland ranks second with $6.04 billion, while Germany and Turkey are almost equal with $4.28 billion and $4.25 billion, respectively. The United States ranks fifth with $2.86 billion.
The top 10 also includes Italy ($2.38 billion), the Czech Republic ($1.64 billion), Bulgaria ($1.54 billion), Hungary ($1.53 billion), and Romania ($1.50 billion).
“The top ten partners form the basis of Ukraine’s foreign trade balance. China and the EU countries account for the largest volumes of trade, but it is important to take into account the significant negative balance in relations with these countries,” said Maksim Urakin, founder of Experts Club and economist.
He added that although the large volume of trade indicates Ukraine’s integration into global supply chains, dependence on imports from China and Europe creates strategic risks.
“Poland and Germany are key hubs for Ukrainian exports, but at the same time they are significant sources of imports. Therefore, it is critically important to balance trade flows, preserving positive sectors such as agriculture and metallurgy, and reducing dependence on critical imports,” Urakin noted.
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China remains the undisputed leader among Ukraine’s trading partners in terms of import volume. In the first six months of 2025, Ukraine imported Chinese goods worth US$8.15 billion. This is more than twice the figures for Poland ($3.58 billion) and Germany ($3.18 billion), which ranked second and third, respectively.
High import volumes were also recorded from Turkey ($2.53 billion) and the United States ($2.31 billion). Italy, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Bulgaria, and France round out the top ten key suppliers with volumes ranging from $1.2 billion to $979 million.
“The formation of such an import structure indicates Ukraine’s excessive dependence on Chinese goods, especially in the electronics, technology, and industrial products segments. Such an imbalance poses risks to economic stability, as any political or logistical restrictions will immediately affect the domestic market,” emphasized Maksim Urakin, founder of Experts Club and economist.
At the same time, experts point to the diversification of supplies from European Union countries. Poland, Germany, Italy, and France together account for more than $8.5 billion in imports, forming a significant segment of the domestic consumer and industrial market.
Economists predict that, provided the hryvnia exchange rate remains stable and import flows continue at current levels, the trade deficit with China will continue to grow. This will require an adjustment of state trade policy towards stimulating domestic production and searching for alternative markets.
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Ukraine has the potential to expand bilateral agricultural trade with the US, particularly in the export of meat, eggs, corn, and queen bees, according to the State Service for Food Safety and Consumer Protection following a working visit to the US by the agency’s head, Serhiy Tkachuk.
The State Service noted that during the visit, Tkachuk held meetings with representatives of three departments of the US Department of Agriculture.
Together with the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), the parties discussed increasing bilateral trade in agricultural products. Ukraine has the potential to replace Russian and Chinese products on the American market, the agency assured. Particular attention was paid to opening the US market for Ukrainian poultry and eggs.
Negotiations with the USDA Food Safety Inspection Service (FSIS) focused on access to the US market for Ukrainian poultry meat and eggs. The State Service of Ukraine for Food Safety and Consumer Protection has already provided all the necessary information and expressed its readiness to undergo inspections, including online. This practice has been successfully applied in cooperation with the United Kingdom, Canada, and the EU.
The Ukrainian side emphasized the importance of moving forward with applications for the export of pork and beef, and the FSIS confirmed its readiness to begin technical consultations.
The meeting with the USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) was devoted to the epizootic situation, the procedure for assessing the status of diseases, and inspections.
In addition, the meetings discussed the prospects for exporting Ukrainian corn and queen bees. The American side positively assessed the dynamics regarding corn and promised to consider the issue of bees in the near future.
“These dialogues confirm that even in times of war, the Ukrainian agricultural sector remains a reliable and promising partner. We feel the support of our American colleagues and their willingness to move forward in opening up new opportunities for Ukraine,” concluded the head of the State Food and Consumer Service.
According to the results of a survey conducted by Active Group in collaboration with Experts Club in August 2025, Ukrainians identified priority areas for the development of foreign economic relations.
The majority of respondents – 81.3% – believe that Ukraine should first and foremost develop economic cooperation with the countries of the European Union. The United Kingdom also received a high level of support – 66.5%, while the United States came in third with 62.7%.
Citizens also pay significant attention to Asian countries: 36.2% of respondents support expanding relations with Southeast Asian countries (Japan, South Korea, etc.), and 31.7% with China. At the same time, 29.5% pointed to the importance of deepening cooperation with countries in the Arab and Muslim world.
To a lesser extent, respondents are focused on partnerships with African and South American countries — this direction was supported by 14.8% of Ukrainians. Another 8.3% of respondents were undecided, and 1.0% believe that Ukraine does not need any new economic partnerships.
“These data clearly demonstrate the European and transatlantic orientation of Ukrainians in terms of economic priorities. The EU, the UK, and the US form the basis of foreign economic trust, while Asia and the Arab world are perceived as promising but secondary partners,” commented Active Group Director Oleksandr Pozniy.
According to Experts Club co-founder Maksim Urakin, the survey results confirm the real economic structure of Ukraine’s trade.
“The EU is already Ukraine’s main trading partner, accounting for over 40% of trade turnover, but if we analyze individual countries, China remains the leader. The high levels of support for cooperation with the UK and the US reflect society’s trust in Ukraine’s political and economic partners during this difficult period. At the same time, interest in Asia and the Arab world indicates the need to diversify markets and seek new opportunities in the future,” he stressed.
The survey was conducted using self-completed questionnaires among 800 Ukrainian citizens aged 18 and older. The sample is representative in terms of age, gender, and region.
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