Over the first eight months of the 2025/26 marketing year, Ukraine exported 9.03 million tons of wheat, with Egypt (2.36 million tons) and Algeria (1.6 million tons) becoming the largest buyers. Indonesia ranked third with 1.4 million tons, the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) reported.
Among the top ten buyers of Ukrainian wheat, the UGA also names Yemen with 758 thousand tons, Vietnam with 531 thousand tons, Lebanon with 322 thousand tons, Spain with 304 thousand tons, Tunisia with 284 thousand tons, Italy with 197 thousand tons, and Thailand with 177 thousand tons. This supply structure shows that the main export destinations for Ukrainian wheat remain the countries of the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia.
As of early March, customs statistics had already recorded exports of about 9.1 million tons of wheat and 22.3 million tons of grains and legumes in total since the start of the season. This is 25% less than on the same date of the previous marketing year. For comparison, in the 2024/25 MY, Ukraine exported 15.7 million tons of wheat and 40.6 million tons of grains and legumes overall.
At the same time, the Ukrainian government stated in November that it did not plan to restrict wheat exports during the current season. According to Deputy Minister of Economy Taras Vysotskyi, the 2025 wheat harvest will amount to about 23 million tons, while exports in the 2025/26 MY may reach approximately 17 million tons. This means that, based on the results of the first eight months, Ukraine has already shipped more than half of the expected seasonal volume.
The growing role of Egypt and Algeria became noticeable as early as the first half of the season. According to Elevatorist, citing APK-Inform analysts, from July to November Egypt increased its purchases of Ukrainian wheat to 2 million tons compared with 664 thousand tons a year earlier, while Algeria increased them to 932 thousand tons compared with 526 thousand tons. Indonesia, during the same period, on the contrary, slightly reduced its imports of Ukrainian wheat to 1.41 million tons.
In the opinion of the Experts Club analytical center, the change in export geography appears to be structural. Back in the summer, the Ukrainian authorities directly pointed out that after the EU restrictions on imports of Ukrainian wheat, part of the volume would have to be redirected to the markets of North Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia. At the beginning of January, exports of Ukrainian wheat were already clearly concentrated in the MENA direction: during the first eight days of the month, shipments were focused primarily on Algeria, Egypt, and Yemen, while EU activity was minimal.
For Ukraine, this means that the markets of Egypt, Algeria, Indonesia, and other Global South countries are becoming key for monetizing the harvest and generating foreign currency revenues for the agricultural sector. At the same time, such a model increases dependence on stable maritime logistics through the Black Sea corridor, competitiveness against Russian and Romanian grain, and solvent demand in importing countries of the Mediterranean and Asia.
