The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) has reduced the forecast for the harvest of grain and oilseeds in Ukraine in 2022 by 7.1% compared to the July forecast – to 64.5 million tons from 69.4 million tons, according to the UGA website .
This change in forecasts was caused by a 5.8% reduction in sown areas under these crops to 18.0 million hectares from 19.1 million hectares due to the consequences of Russian aggression in Ukraine.
“Despite the stubbornness and courage of Ukrainian farmers, there are objective obstacles to harvesting in mined, occupied areas and destroyed crops,” the UGA statement says.
According to her, the total export of grain and oilseeds from Ukraine in the 2022/2023 marketing year (MY, July-June) can reach 32.8 million tons (in the July forecast – 31.5 million tons), provided that sea grain corridors are maintained and further expanding the capacity of border crossings on the western borders of Ukraine. At the same time, the transitional balances of agricultural products in the country at the beginning of MY 2022/2023 amounted to 26 million tons of grain and oilseeds, and by the end of the MY they are expected to increase to 30.5 million tons.
“In general, the export of grains and oilseeds in 2022/2023 MY can be expected at the indicated level if the Ukrainian Black Sea ports for export remain open. Export of grain through Ukrainian ports and ensuring the safety of navigation in the Black Sea is the only way to quickly and efficiently supply Ukrainian grain to countries who are in dire need of it,” the organization said in a statement.
According to UGA forecasts, in 2022, a wheat harvest is expected at the level of 19 million tons (-8.6% compared to the July forecast of the organization); 24 million tons of corn (-12.1%); 5.4 million tons of barley (-18%); 9 million tons of sunflower (forecast kept); 2.2 million tons of soybeans (forecast kept); 3 million tons of rapeseed (2 times increase).
In the August forecast, the Association retained its export forecasts compared to July – for example, wheat exports in 2022/2023 MY are expected to be at the level of 10 million tons, corn – 10 million tons, barley – 2 million tons, sunflower – 6 million tons, soybeans – 1 .8 million tons. However, rapeseed exports will double to 2.8 million tons.
As reported with reference to the data of the State Statistics Service, in 2021 Ukraine harvested a record harvest of grain and leguminous crops in the amount of 85.7 million tons, which is 32% more than in 2020. In total, 32.07 million tons of wheat (+28.9%), 41.87 million tons of corn (+38.2%) and 9.42 million tons of barley (+23.3%) were harvested.
Ukraine in 2021 also harvested 16.38 million tons of sunflower (+25% compared to 2020), 10.8 million tons of sugar beet (+18.1%), 3.5 million tons of soybeans (+24.4%), 2.92 million tons of rapeseed and 42 thousand tons of oilseed flax (an increase of 3.7 times).
The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) is an association of producers, processors and large grain exporters who annually export about 90% of Ukrainian grain products.
