International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff and Ukraine’s official authorities reached a staff-level agreement (SLA – staff-level agreement) on the first and final review under the Monitoring Program with Board of Directors (PMB).
“This agreement, which is subject to IMF management approval, paves the way for the start of discussions on a full-fledged program supported by the Fund,” the IMF said in a statement Friday evening following the mission.
As reported, Ukraine, amid the IMF’s reluctance to immediately allocate significant funding last fall, requested a four-month PMB Monitoring Program from the Fund, which the Fund approved on December 20. Kiev hopes that this program, which does not involve financing, will be replaced by the Extended Funding Facility (EFF) at the beginning of the second quarter of 2023, which may partially cover the gap in covering the $38 billion deficit in the state budget 2023, which now amounts to about $10 billion.
The IMF mission on the first revision of the program worked in Warsaw on February 13-17. It discussed medium-term macroeconomic indicators, fiscal policy, the structure of financing, financial sector policies, and governance.
“Thanks to the joint efforts of the government and the National Bank of Ukraine, all the quantitative and indicative indicators for the end of December, as well as all five structural benchmarks for the end of January were fulfilled. They included the government’s submission of a package of tax bills, the adoption of measures by the Ministry of Finance on the settlement of overdue debts, the development of a conceptual plan for the social protection system, the creation of the Naftogaz NAB and the agreement of key elements of the banking sector diagnosis,” said Gavin Gray, IMF mission chief.
According to him, the timely provision of significant external support is critical to macroeconomic stability and large-scale disbursements will remain necessary in 2023 and beyond to cover financing needs and ensure stability.
Gray also said that efforts to expand issuance in the domestic bond market should continue to help ensure a stable financing structure and eliminate reliance on monetary financing.
The IMF expects the public sector to play an important role in the recovery, and measures to improve the efficiency and transparency of public finance and governance will be critical.
The Fund also pointed out that the economy contracted by 30% in 2022, less than previously expected, and inflation has begun to slow. At the same time, the short-term outlook has worsened since the PMB approval in December, including due to attacks on critical infrastructure. Nevertheless, the economy is adjusting, and a gradual recovery is expected over the course of the year.
“Fiscal policy in 2023 should take into account higher spending needs. Strengthening tax revenues, including by improving revenue management and restoring tax policy to its prewar state, remains a priority. In addition, Ukraine faces the enormous task of creating fiscal space for war-related recovery and a stronger social safety net, leaving no room for measures that undermine tax revenues,” the Fund noted.
According to the IMF, the NBU has reacted prudently to excess liquidity in the banking system, including by raising reserve requirements and increasing the attractiveness of local currency assets to ensure price and external stability.
“With the outbreak of war, the far-reaching emergency measures imposed under martial law helped maintain financial stability. Now preparations are underway for the gradual lifting of emergency measures in order to bring norms in line with international standards. The NBU is prioritizing updating its financial sector strategy, a key element of which will be an independent assessment of banks’ assets when conditions allow,” the Fund pointed out.
According to his staff, a full-fledged program with the IMF would support the Ukrainian government’s efforts to join the EU. In particular, reform initiatives aimed at improving private sector productivity and competitiveness should be advanced to help lay the groundwork for sustainable post-war growth amid moves toward EU accession.
“The authorities are making progress on reforms to strengthen governance, fight corruption and the rule of law, and lay the foundations for post-war growth, although the reform agenda in these areas remains significant… The private sector is also expected to contribute to recovery efforts,” the release also noted.
