The total gross harvest of grains and oilseeds in Ukraine in 2023 is expected to be 68 million tons, 8.5% less than in 2022, when it was 73.8 million tons, and 36% less than in 2021 (106 million tons), this forecast was released by the Ukrainian Grain Association (UZA).
“The significantly lower volume of the future harvest is due to both the occupation of part of the territory of Ukraine, mines, hostilities, and the lack of funds and other resources for farmers to conduct a full sowing campaign and grow crops,” UZA said in a statement.
According to its estimate, the total area sown in Ukraine will be 28.2% less than in previous years – about 19.5 million hectares. “Of course, much depends on how the sowing season will end and on further weather conditions,” the association said.
According to its analysts, exports from Ukraine in the new season 2023/2024 could amount to 43.9 million tons. In the current season (which ends June 30, 2022), exports could reach 56.4 million tons, preserving the marine export route. At the same time, transitional balances at the beginning of the new season could be about 11.9 million tons of grains and oilseeds, which is three times more than in previous seasons, except in 2022/2023 MY, when balances were the maximum (about 25 million tons).
“A characteristic feature of this year will be a drop in the volume of grain crops due to a decrease in the area sown under them compared to last year and a simultaneous increase in the forecast of oilseed crops due to an increase in the area sown under them,” the UZA stressed.
According to grain market analysts, the harvest of wheat in Ukraine in 2023 could reach only 17.9 million tons (in 2022 – 20.2 million tons, and in 2021 – a record 33 million tons), with a reduction in acreage under wheat by more than 2 million hectares.
“Even this harvest is enough to meet domestic demand and food security of the country (especially when about 7 million Ukrainians have left the country), but will reduce the export potential for food security in the world,” the association explained.
According to its data, the export of wheat in 2023/2024 MY, given the smaller harvest, could be about 15 million tons, taking into account the fact that at the beginning of the season transitional residues will amount to 5.3 million tons.
UZA also forecast a barley crop of 4.4 million tons in 2023 (10.1 million tons in 2021 and 5.8 million tons in 2022) and expects to export this crop in 2023/2024 MY at 2 million tons.
Corn harvest in the new season in the UZA expects at 23.3 million tons, linking this figure with the reduction of cultivation areas on 800 thousand hectares (in 2021 – 37.6 million tons, in 2022 – 27.3 million tons). According to experts of the Association, the export of this crop may be about 19 million tons, taking into account the transition stocks at the beginning of the new season at the level of 2.3 million tons.
Analysts at UZA forecast the sunflower harvest in 2023 at 12.7 million tons, due to the increase of cultivated areas under it also by 800 thousand hectares (in 2022 – 11.1 million tons, in 2021 – 16.9 million tons). UZA expects sunflower seed export at 1.2 million tons, and sunflower oil production may reach 11.5 million tons.
UZA’s preliminary forecast for rapeseed harvest in 2023 is 3.8 million tons, with exports in 2023/2024 MY at 3.5 million tons. The soybean crop is at nearly 4.4 million tons and exports 2023/2024 MY will be 3 million tons.
According to analysts, the forecast voiced exports of grains and oilseeds in 2023/2024 MY will be valid if the work of the Ukrainian Black Sea ports. “The world has already seen that export of grain through Ukrainian ports and ensuring the safety of navigation in the Black Sea is the only way to quickly and efficiently supply Ukrainian grain to the countries that badly need it,” the business association stressed.
UZA stressed that the reduction of crops and exports from Ukraine will have a negative impact on the availability of grain on the world market and will lead to higher prices and, consequently, to an increase in food inflation in the world.
According to the forecast of Ministry of Agrarian Policy, announced in late March, the area of cereals and leguminous crops in 2023 will be 10.24 million hectares, which is 1.4 million fewer than in 2022, while the area under oilseeds will grow by 0.92 million hectares – to 8.85 million hectares. In particular, winter wheat will be 4166 thousand hectares (-834 thousand hectares against the previous year), spring wheat – 285 thousand hectares (+67 thousand hectares), winter barley – 536 thousand hectares (-255 thousand hectares).
