Analysts at Alfa-Bank Ukraine expect a reduction in the grain harvest in 2022 to 56 million tons, which will be the lowest figure in the last 10 years and will mean a decrease of 34% to a record figure for 2021.
“Even this historically small harvest will provide a significant resource of grain for export. Now available transport channels do not make it possible to ship such volumes of marketable products abroad,” commented the head of the analytical department Alexei Blinov in the bank’s report.
It is indicated that the assessment of the future harvest is based on calculations of the sown area in the zone of occupation or active hostilities, as well as the current dynamics of the sown area in the territories controlled by Ukraine. Analysts at Alfa-Bank Ukraine also expect some reduction in yields due to lack of fertilizers and plant protection products.
“The key to Ukraine’s agricultural exports, and this is the food security of the world, should be the lifting of the blockade of Ukrainian seaports,” Blinov stressed.