The National Bank of Ukraine’s (NBU) increase of the monthly limit on non-cash foreign currency purchases by individuals from 50,000 UAH to 200,000 UAH may lead to a short-term rise in demand, but will not have a significant impact on the foreign exchange market, according to bankers surveyed by Interfax-Ukraine.
“In our opinion, there may be a certain surge in demand for non-cash foreign currency purchases in the first few days after the changes take effect,” said Emal Bakhtari, director of the financial instruments sales department at Raiffeisen Bank.
According to him, the proportion of customers who previously found the monthly limit of 50,000 UAH insufficient is relatively small. He suggested that the National Bank would, if necessary, smooth out short-term spikes in demand through currency interventions.
Serhiy Mamedov, Chairman of the Board of Globus Bank, also does not expect a proportional increase in demand following the fourfold increase in the limit. According to him, the limit determines only the maximum possible transaction amount, whereas the public’s purchase of cash foreign currency was not previously restricted by a similar monthly limit.
Currency liberalization in and of itself is unlikely to pose a threat to exchange rate stability at this point, Mamedov believes. Substantial international reserves give the regulator the ability to smooth out excessive exchange rate fluctuations, and the high discount rate should maintain the attractiveness of hryvnia-denominated instruments; however, this model depends to a large extent on the regularity of international financial assistance.
Anton Kurinny, a dealer in OTP Bank’s Global Markets Department, also forecasts an increase in demand for foreign currency but does not expect this to have a significant impact on the interbank market, where importers’ needs and the shortfall in export proceeds remain the more significant factors.
According to Kurinnyi, additional demand may also arise in the cash market following the increase in the daily limit for currency withdrawals from 100,000 UAH to 200,000 UAH, since the cash exchange rate hovers close to interbank quotes and is sometimes even lower than them.
Mamedov identified the worsening balance between goods imports and exports as a separate risk. According to the data he cited, in January–July 2026, goods imports totaled $58.1 billion, while exports amounted to $24.1 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of approximately $34 billion.
According to the banker, a further increase in the trade imbalance and problems with maritime logistics could intensify structural demand for foreign currency and the need for NBU interventions, while the dynamics of reserves will also depend on the volume of international financing.
Oleksandr Pecheritsyn, director of the analytical research department at Raiffeisen Bank, assesses the risk of a significant outflow of household savings from hryvnia deposits and domestic government bonds (OVGZ) into foreign currency as limited.
In his view, hryvnia-denominated deposits and domestic government bonds remain more attractive than holding savings in foreign currency cash, and the growth in household investments in domestic government bonds was primarily driven by their higher returns relative to the expected devaluation of the hryvnia.
At the same time, Pecheritsyn suggests that raising the limit on non-cash foreign currency purchases could reduce the volume of so-called “technical” foreign currency deposits, which households opened for three months to subsequently obtain foreign currency.
“If the volume of such deposits declines and banks need foreign currency resources to conduct active operations—particularly lending—interest rates on foreign currency deposits may rise slightly. At the same time, this will not necessarily become a general trend across the entire banking sector,” he noted.
Raising the daily limit on cash foreign currency withdrawals could theoretically also boost public interest in foreign currency deposits; however, according to Pecheritsyn’s assessment, given the population’s average incomes and savings, this effect will not be widespread and will not lead to a significant increase in such deposits.
As previously reported, effective August 11, the NBU increased the monthly limit on the public’s purchase of non-cash foreign currency from 50,000 hryvnias to 200,000 hryvnias and extended it to include the purchase of non-cash bank metals and securities issued by foreign entities.
The regulator also raised the daily limit on cash withdrawals by individuals from foreign currency accounts in Ukraine and abroad from 100,000 hryvnias to 200,000 hryvnias and eased a number of other foreign exchange restrictions for individuals and legal entities.
The National Bank stated that the new package of easing measures will not pose risks to the stability of the foreign exchange market and has already been factored into the updated macroeconomic forecast, which projects an increase in international reserves to nearly $70 billion by 2026.
In July 2026, the National Bank of Ukraine imposed a fine of 16.1 million UAH on Raiffeisen Bank JSC for a series of violations of anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing laws.
Among the violations identified by the regulator were inadequate customer due diligence and failure to apply a risk-based approach, as well as deficiencies in risk management during the implementation and use of information products and technologies, particularly when conducting transactions without direct contact with the customer.
The NBU also identified instances of untimely reporting of threshold financial transactions to the authorized state body and shortcomings in providing information and documents in response to the regulator’s requests.
In addition to the fine, Raiffeisen Bank received a written warning. It pertains, in particular, to the verification of customers and ultimate beneficial owners falling under the PEP category, internal documents regarding financial monitoring, updating information in customer questionnaires, and the transmission of information about payers.
Raiffeisen Bank has been operating in Ukraine since 1992, initially under the name Bank Aval. Since 2005, the bank has been part of the Austrian Raiffeisen Group. According to the ownership structure as of January 1, 2026, Raiffeisen Bank International AG holds 68.21% of the Ukrainian bank’s shares, while the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development holds 30%. Natalia Gurina is the chair of the bank’s board of directors.
In July 2026, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) imposed a fine totaling 42.545 million UAH on JSC “Ukrainian Capital Bank” for violating financial monitoring and foreign exchange supervision regulations.
The regulator imposed the main fine of 40.545 million UAH for the improper organization and conduct of initial financial monitoring. Specifically, the NBU identified shortcomings in the bank’s application of a risk-based approach, its assessment of customer risks, and its internal documents regarding financial monitoring and customer due diligence. The bank also did not always provide information and documents in a timely and complete manner in response to requests from the inspection team.
An additional fine of 2 million UAH was imposed for violations of foreign exchange legislation. According to the NBU, the bank improperly carried out foreign exchange supervision, failed to ensure a comprehensive analysis of documents related to certain foreign exchange transactions, and did not identify the indicators of such transactions as required by regulations.
In addition, “Ukrainian Capital” received two written warnings. One relates to additional due diligence on customers who are politically exposed persons (PEPs), the automation of certain procedures, and the completion of customer questionnaires. The second concerns the late submission of and errors in statistical reports on foreign exchange transactions.
The NBU announced the imposition of these enforcement measures on August 7, 2026. In total, in July, the regulator imposed sanctions for violations in the areas of financial monitoring and foreign exchange legislation on two banks and 19 non-bank financial institutions.
Ukrainian Capital Bank has been operating in the Ukrainian market since 1992 and was originally registered as Zakarpattia Bank; it has used its current name since 1996. The NBU classifies it as a privately owned bank. According to the regulator, as of February 1, 2026, the bank’s assets totaled 3.079 billion UAH, liabilities amounted to 2.874 billion UAH, and capital stood at 204.7 million UAH. The NBU lists Serhiy Belashov, Liliana Belashova, Daria Zlidar, and Nataliia Kiva as major shareholders. Yevhen Chechyl serves as chairman of the board.
BANK, financial monitoring, FINE, foreign exchange supervision, NBU
In April–June 2026, Ukrsibbank (Kyiv) increased its pre-tax profit by 19.4%, or 342.9 million UAH, to 2.11 billion UAH, while net profit decreased by 11.7%, or by 156.9 million UAH, to 1.18 billion UAH.
According to the bank’s interim consolidated financial statements, Ukrsibbank’s net interest income increased by 10.1% to 3.44 billion UAH, and net fee and commission income rose by 13.9% to 450.0 million UAH.
Profit from foreign currency transactions decreased by 21.8% to 195.5 million UAH, while profit from foreign currency revaluation increased by 80.9% to 959,000 UAH.
In the second quarter, the bank recorded a loss of 7.8 million UAH from the impairment of financial assets, compared to a loss of 290.5 million UAH a year earlier.
Employee compensation expenses rose by 14.1% to 1.16 billion UAH, while other administrative and operating expenses increased by 11.3% to 522.7 million UAH.
For the first half of 2026, Ukrsibbank’s pre-tax profit rose by 1.1% to 3.61 billion UAH, while net profit fell by 30.3% to 1.85 billion UAH.
The bank’s net interest income for the half-year rose by 11.1% to 6.78 billion UAH, while net fee and commission income increased by 7.4% to 843.6 million UAH.
Loans and advances to customers have increased by 2.8% since the beginning of the year, reaching 22.60 billion UAH. In particular, loans to consumers rose by 29.5% to 4.57 billion UAH, while loans to corporate clients decreased by 2.2% to 17.91 billion UAH, and mortgage loans fell by 13.1% to 126.7 million UAH.
Investments in securities for the first half of the year rose by 6.8% to 112.88 billion UAH. Specifically, investments in government debt instruments increased by 6.7% to 54.01 billion UAH, and investments in corporate debt instruments rose by 5.6% to 13.43 billion UAH.
Ukrsibbank’s customer deposits have grown by 4.3% since the beginning of the year, reaching 162.97 billion UAH. Balances in time deposits increased by 2.5% to 49.12 billion UAH, in demand deposits by 39.3% to 13.73 billion UAH, and in checking accounts by 3.8% to 96.12 billion UAH.
The bank’s total assets increased by 4.9% to 195.46 billion UAH, and its equity rose by 6.8% to 29.07 billion UAH.
The number of Ukrsibbank branches decreased to 214 in the first half of the year from 220 at the beginning of the year.
In terms of ownership structure, Ukrsibbank is owned by BNP Paribas (France)—60%—and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD)—40%.
According to the National Bank, as of June 1, 2026, Ukrsibbank, with total assets of 196.69 billion UAH, ranked eighth among Ukraine’s 58 solvent banks.
asset, BANK, LOAN, PROFIT, UKRSIBBANK
The total volume of mortgage loans in the banking system as of June 1, 2026, reached 50 billion hryvnia, or about 4% of all loans issued, said Olena Dmitrieva, First Deputy Chair of the Board of Globus Bank, on Wednesday during the analytical panel “Market Analytics for the Construction and Real Estate Sectors for the First Half of 2026,” organized by the Confederation of Builders of Ukraine.
“The real estate market is gradually adapting to the conditions of war, but demand remains highly sensitive to shelling, power outages, and rising construction costs. At the same time, the share of mortgages in the total number of residential purchase and sale transactions still accounts for only about 3%,” noted Olena Dmitrieva.
According to her data, as of June 1, 2026, the total volume of mortgage loans in the banking system reached 50 billion hryvnia, or about 4% of all loans issued. Over the past year, banks’ mortgage portfolios have grown by 35%, while the total loan portfolio increased by approximately 10%.
She also emphasized that approximately 42,000 Ukrainian families currently hold mortgage loans, representing only 0.4% of the total number of households. The share of non-performing loans in this segment stands at 12%, primarily due to older foreign-currency loans.
At the same time, the number of new mortgage loans has not yet returned to pre-war levels. In 2025, banks issued about 77% of the number of loans granted in 2021.
“Mortgage portfolios are indeed growing much faster than the credit market as a whole. However, the main driving force behind this growth remains ‘eOselya.’ Without government support, the scale of mortgage lending would be significantly smaller,” Dmytrieva emphasized.
On average, banks issue about 207 loans per month secured by property rights to apartments in buildings under construction, as well as about 238 loans for the purchase of completed housing from developers. Thanks to these two areas of mortgage lending, construction companies receive about 884 million UAH, or approximately $20 million, each month.
Since the “eOselya” program began, about 28,000 loans have been issued for a total of 49 billion UAH. Currently, it accounts for 93% of all new mortgage loans in Ukraine.
Globus Bank was founded in 2007. As of January 2026, its regional network comprises 34 branches, 29 of which are part of the Power Banking network, enabling operations even during power outages.
Its priority areas of activity include lending for energy-efficient projects, mortgage lending in the primary market, auto loans, and lending to small and medium-sized businesses.
Serhiy Mamedov, Chairman of the Board of Globus Bank, is Vice President of the Confederation of Builders of Ukraine and Vice President of the Association of Ukrainian Banks.
Ukrainian banks expect further growth in their business and household loan portfolios over the next 12 months, as well as an increase in demand for all types of corporate and retail loans in the third quarter, according to the results of a survey by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
At the same time, these expectations have become more subdued: the balance of responses regarding growth in the business loan portfolio fell to 38.2% from 72.2% in the first quarter of 2026, and for retail loans—to 38.9% from 65.1%.
Banks forecast a slight improvement in the quality of the corporate loan portfolio over the next 12 months: the balance of responses stood at 7.3% compared to 7.1% a quarter earlier. At the same time, for the fourth consecutive quarter, respondents expect the quality of loans to households to deteriorate, although the corresponding balance has become less negative—“minus” 16.3% versus “minus” 17%.
Financial institutions also expect growth in deposits from businesses and households. The balance of responses regarding the expected change in the volume of corporate sector deposits rose to 53.7% from 50.7%, reaching its highest level since the start of the full-scale invasion, while the balance for household deposits rose to 53.8% from 53.3%.
In the second quarter, business demand for loans increased: the overall balance of responses rose to 35.5% from 34.4% in January–March, also reaching its highest level since the start of the full-scale invasion.
Demand for long-term loans saw the sharpest increase—rising to 35.4% from 24.6%. Demand for loans to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) rose to 24.7% from 23.8%, while demand for loans to large enterprises also increased, though at a slower pace than a quarter ago: the balance of responses fell to 26.9% from 34%.
Banks cited the need for capital investments and working capital as the main drivers of the growth in corporate demand. In the third quarter, they expect demand to increase for all types of business loans, particularly long-term ones.
Household demand also rose in the second quarter for both mortgage and consumer loans. According to banks’ estimates, demand for consumer loans has been growing since the second quarter of 2023, and for mortgages—since the beginning of 2025.
In July–September, respondents expect a further increase in household demand for loans, particularly for mortgages. Several large banks cited lower borrowing costs and improved prospects for the real estate market as the main drivers of rising mortgage demand.
Lending standards for the corporate sector remained virtually unchanged in the second quarter: the balance of responses stood at 1.7%, compared with “minus” 2.9% a quarter earlier. Standards for SMEs eased, though to a lesser extent than in January–March: “minus” 3.3% versus “minus” 25.2%.
In the third quarter, banks generally do not plan to change their corporate lending standards but expect them to ease for SME loans.
The approval rate for business loan applications remained largely unchanged in the second quarter: the balance of responses stood at 0% compared to 12.6% a quarter earlier. At the same time, for SMEs, it stood at 13% versus 24.4%, as some banks reported the possibility of providing them with larger loans.
For households, banks eased standards in the second quarter for both mortgages and consumer loans. For mortgages, the net balance of responses fell to “minus” 14.9% from zero, while for consumer loans it stood at “minus” 21.5% compared with “minus” 23.1% a quarter earlier.
Competition among banks remained the main factor behind the easing of consumer lending standards. For mortgages, additional factors included expectations regarding overall economic activity and the outlook for the real estate market.
Banks also expect a further easing of standards for both mortgage and consumer loans in the third quarter.
The approval rate for household loan applications rose in April–June. Banks reported lower interest rates, higher loan amounts, and longer terms for consumer loans, as well as lower mortgage costs and somewhat stricter collateral requirements for mortgages.
Banks assessed the debt burden on businesses in the second quarter as moderate, although assessments regarding SMEs tended toward the low end of the scale. The debt burden on households remained low.
In the second quarter, banks recorded an increase in credit, foreign exchange, and liquidity risks. The balance of responses regarding credit risk rose to 30.3% from 24.9% a quarter ago; for foreign exchange risk, it stood at 14.5% versus 21.3%; for liquidity risk, 8.4% versus 18.8%; while interest rate and operational risks remained largely unchanged.
At the same time, respondents expect currency and credit risks, in particular, to intensify in the third quarter.
The survey was conducted from June 16 to July 8, 2026, among credit managers at 25 banks, which accounted for 96% of the banking system’s total assets.
BANK, BUSINESS, LOAN, NBU, POPULATION
