Dynamics of the consumer price index in 2002-2020, in %
Consumer sentiment of Ukrainians in February 2020 deteriorated by 7.1 points, to 81.9 points on a 200-point scale, according to the website of Info Sapiens research agency. “All the indicator’s components decreased and the short-term economic expectations most of all,” the agency said on its website.
“In February the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) kept decreasing. Comparing to the peak level reached in September 2019, the index lost 16 points and almost a half of this decline (7 p.) happened in February regarding the January 2020. The most significant decrease happened in the west (19 p.), north and east (10 p. each) regions. The CCI in Kyiv and in the central region is stable,” Info Sapiens analysts comment.
“In February, the Index of Economic Expectations (ІЕE) decreased by 8.9 points to the level of 86.8. The Index of Expectations of the Country’s Economic Development over the next year (х3) decreased by 12.8 points and equals 80.1. The Index of Expectations of the Country’s Economic Development over the next five years (х4) decreased to the level of 93.7, which is 7.7 points lower than in January,” it said.
“The Index of the Current Situation (ICS) decreased by 4.5 points to the level of 74.5. The Index of Current Personal Financial Standing (х1) equaled 70.7, which is 5.7 points lower than the indicator in January. The Index of Propensity to Consume (х5) decreased by 3.3 p. and reached the indicator of 78.4,” according to the report.
“In February, the indicator of Index of Expectations of Changes in Unemployment equaled 128.7, which is 9.9 p. higher than previous month,” the report says.
Consumer confidence of Ukrainians in December 2018 improved compared with November by 2.4 points, to 62.2 on a 200-point scale, following the November trend after a significant decline in October 2018, GfK Ukraine has reported on the results of a monthly study, clarifying that from January 2019 it stopped this research project. This indicator is also 1.9 points higher compared to December 2017, the report says.
“In December, the optimism of consumers recovered after a slight recession in October-November. The consumer confidence of the citizens with average and higher than average income has improved the most. In December, these groups saw the significant increase of the index of expected changes in future income and propensity to consume. Instead, the pessimism has increased in the group of citizens with lower than average income,” GfK Ukraine analysts said.
The largest positive trend was shown by the index of propensity to consume, which rose by 3.7 points in December 2018, to 71.6, the study indicates.
Ukrainians were also optimistic about the expectations of changes in unemployment: the corresponding index rose by 3.5 points, to 134. The index of expected changes in personal financial standing grew by 3.2 points, to 61.8.
In addition, the inflation expectations index improved, dropping by 2.6 points, to 186.6, and the economic expectations index increased by 2.6 points, to 63.6.
Consumer confidence of Ukrainians in March 2018 improved by 2.3 points, to 57.7 compared to the February figures after a negative trend in January and February, according to data from GfK Ukraine. According to the report, in March Ukrainians were optimistic about the stability of the national currency: the devaluation expectations index showed the greatest dynamics and fell by 9.9 points, to 149.9. GfK Ukraine also notes that in March the index of propensity to consume rose by 6.8 points compared to February (to 65.2), while the index of expected changes in personal financial standing was up by 4.3 points (to 58.8).
“The most positive dynamics of the index of propensity to consume and the index of expected changes in personal financial standing has been recorded in the large cities (over 500,000 residents),” GfK Ukraine analysts commented.
In March, Ukrainians were also optimistic about inflationary processes: the index of inflationary expectations fell by 4.2, to 183, GfK Ukraine said. GfK Ukraine has been surveying households to determine consumer confidence in Ukraine since June 2000. Some 1,000 respondents are polled.