Ukrzaliznytsia (UZ), subject to European and state co-financing, plans to implement the Mostytska-Sknyliv project in the next two years and further develop the Lviv-Uzhhorod -Chop and Lviv-Chernivtsi-Vadul-Siret (Romania), which will allow Ukraine to begin restoring and realizing its unique geographical status, said Oleg Yakovenko, director of the strategy and transformation department at Ukrzaliznytsia.
“We also plan to obtain grant funds for the Mostyska-Sknyliv project, which will connect 80 km of European gauge track between the Polish border and Lviv. Next, we are currently conducting technical and economic studies on the corridors connecting Lviv, Chernivtsi, and Romania,” Yakovenko said during the Kyiv International Economic Forum (KIEF) on Thursday, October 16.
According to him, as part of Ukraine’s integration into the European Union, UZ plans to develop 1435 mm gauge railways and European transport corridors on the territory of Ukraine. The European integration reform of the railway industry also envisages a radical change in the functioning of the entire railway model in Ukraine.
“First of all, we are talking about market reform, which involves separating the infrastructure operator within Ukrzaliznytsia from the transport operators. This will allow us to liberalize the market in the future. It will also allow us to create market mechanisms specifically for transport,” Yakovenko explained.
He named the introduction of European rules on technical compatibility and interoperability as another element of the reform. This concerns technical safety standards, as well as changes to the safety management system.
The director of the strategy and transformation department at Ukrzaliznytsia noted that a draft law “On the safety and interoperability of Ukraine’s rail transport” is currently planned to be submitted for adoption by the end of the year, while next year the company expects a law on market liberalization to be introduced.
As Yakovenko explained, it is expected that a so-called infrastructure access tariff will be formed, according to which market participants will be able to purchase certain access to transport routes from the infrastructure operator on a competitive basis.
“These tariffs will be regulated, i.e., they will be formed in accordance with the tariff formation procedure and will reflect economically justified tariffs in accordance with European rules,” emphasized the representative of Ukrzaliznytsia.
It is noted that the new system will introduce separate PSO (Public Service Obligation) contracts between passenger carriers and the state at the national level, as well as between carriers and local authorities. This should remove the financial burden from freight transport.
As reported, in September, a section of standard (“European”) 1435 mm gauge railway was opened between Uzhhorod and Chop in Zakarpattia Oblast, which will allow for direct rail connections between Uzhhorod and a number of European capitals.
In addition, in January 2025, it was reported that the reconstruction of the railway track on the section “Polish State Border – Mostyska II – Sknyliv (Lviv)” would be postponed until 2026, although in February 2024, the then Deputy Prime Minister for Recovery – Minister of Community, Territory and Infrastructure Development Oleksandr Kubrakov announced the start of construction by the end of 2024. Later it became known that Ukraine had failed to attract Connecting Europe Facility (CEF) funding for the project. It was reported that the US Agency for International Development (USAID) was considering financing 50% of the project’s cost, but it has since been liquidated.
CONSTRUCTION, EU, European gauge, GRANT, LVIV, UKRZALIZNYTSIA
Global demand for steel in 2025 will remain at the previous year’s level — about 1.748 billion tons, after a 1.6% decline in 2024. These figures are given in the short-term forecast of the World Steel Association (Worldsteel) — Short Range Outlook (SRO).
In 2026, according to experts, demand will grow by 1.3% to 1.772 billion tons, driven by recovery in Europe, India, and the rapidly developing countries of Asia, the Middle East, and Africa.
According to Worldsteel’s forecast, in the CIS countries, including Ukraine, demand for steel will decline by 5.2% in 2025, to 56.1 million tons, and by another 1.7% in 2026, to 55.2 million tons.
At the same time, India will retain its status as the world’s fastest-growing steel market, with growth of around 9% annually in 2025-2026. Already next year, steel consumption in India will be almost 75 million tons higher than in 2020.
In developing countries (excluding China), demand for steel will increase by 3.4% in 2025 and by 4.7% in 2026, driven by active economic development in ASEAN countries, as well as in Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
In Africa, steel consumption is growing by an average of 5.5% annually, reaching 41 million tons in 2025 — the highest level in the last decade. Growth is driven by investments in construction and improved macroeconomic indicators.
Andriy Ozeychuk, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Ukrainian Steel Construction Center and Director of Rauta, commented on the market situation and prospects for the Ukrainian steel sector.
“The Ukrainian steel market in 2025–2026 will be shaped by the recovery of domestic demand in construction and machine building, as well as the growth of exports of metal structures to the EU. We predict that demand for steel in Ukraine may grow by 6-8% in 2026 due to infrastructure and industrial recovery projects,” Ozeychuk said.
According to him, the steel construction sector will be the driver of this growth:
“The use of metal structures will accelerate the restoration of logistics, industrial, and infrastructure facilities.”
Ozeychuk also stressed that the launch of joint programs with European partners in the field of “green” metallurgy, where Ukraine already has its first pilot initiatives for the production of steel with a low carbon footprint, could give the industry an additional boost.
According to the forecast, demand for steel in the EU+UK region will increase by 1.3% in 2025 and by 3.2% in 2026. This reflects the impact of increased investment in infrastructure and defense amid lower inflation and improved household incomes.
In the US, Worldsteel expects steel consumption to increase by 1.8% in both 2025 and 2026. The main drivers of growth will be government spending on infrastructure, a revival in housing construction, and private investment.
In China, steel demand will continue to decline, by approximately 2% in 2025, due to the prolonged downturn in the real estate market. In 2026, the rate of decline will slow to 1% as the construction sector is expected to bottom out.
Worldsteel warns that a more challenging global trade environment and financial pressure on local authorities could further limit infrastructure investment and reduce demand.
According to Alfonso Hidalgo de Calcerrada, chief economist of the Spanish Steel Manufacturers Association (UNESID) and chairman of the Worldsteel Economic Committee, the organization is “cautiously optimistic” about the market outlook:
“Despite trade disputes and uncertainty, we believe that global steel demand will bottom out in 2025 and show moderate growth in 2026,” the expert said.
He added that this will be facilitated by the resilience of the global economy, growth in infrastructure investment, and easing financial conditions. At the same time, the sector continues to be pressured by high costs, trade barriers, and geopolitical risks.
Worldsteel’s forecast emphasizes that the decline in demand in China is offset by strong growth in India and developing countries, where a new center of global steel production is emerging.
In addition, the protective measures introduced by the European Union — reducing duty-free import quotas and increasing customs duties to 50% — may change the balance between EU producers and exporters from Asia and Eastern Europe.
For more information on the largest steel producers and global industry trends, see the Experts Club video analysis review available on YouTube: Experts Club — Leaders of the global steel industry 1990–2024
CHINA, EU, EXPERTS CLUB, global economy, INDIA, OZEYCHUK, RAUTA, USA, World Steel, WORLDSTEEL
Unrealized exchange commodities, growing losses in dry milk and butter production, and falling butter prices in Europe and worldwide are holding back the growth of raw milk prices in Ukraine, according to the Association of Milk Producers (AMP).
The industry association noted that the average purchase price of extra-grade milk as of October 6 was UAH 17.45/kg excluding VAT, which is UAH 0.1 more than in the previous month, Prices for premium milk (UAH 17.15/kg excluding VAT) and first-grade milk (UAH 16.80/kg excluding VAT) remained unchanged.
“Prices also remained stable compared to the results of monitoring in the second half of September. Compared to the same period last year, the price of extra grade milk decreased by 25 kopecks,” experts noted.
According to AVM analyst Georgiy Kukhaleishvili, many factors are holding back the growth of raw milk prices in Ukraine. Currently, the supply of exchange goods on the domestic market exceeds demand. Milk processing enterprises have been working at full capacity since mid-August after the suspension of milk exports to the EU following the exhaustion of quotas. At the same time, demand on the domestic market remains low due to a decrease in the number of consumers and a reduction in the purchasing power of the population. Sales of dairy products in supermarkets are growing only when promotional discounts are offered. Warehouses in Ukraine are almost completely filled with exchange goods, which puts pressure on milk prices.
According to the ABM, the situation with butter in the EU is indicative, as it has fallen in price by 24% over the past two months due to the arrival of American butter on the European market at a price of EUR 5,000/ton. In such conditions, European traders are not interested in buying Ukrainian butter, which costs more than American butter. The increase in electricity costs affects the growth of the cost of Ukrainian products and makes it difficult to compete with Americans in the European market, analysts explain.
In Ukraine, in the second half of October, there is a possibility of a maximum price reduction for extra-grade and higher-grade raw milk due to the growing unprofitability of dry milk and butter production at milk processing enterprises and a decline in world prices for butter, they predict.
“However, on October 13, new quotas for the export of dairy products to the EU for Ukrainian companies are expected to be signed. Quotas for butter have increased from 5,000 tons to 7,000 tons, as well as for dry milk. Dairy exports to the EU are expected to resume on October 28, after the quotas come into force in 15 days, which may curb the fall in raw milk prices in Ukraine,” the ABM notes.
In January-July 2025, Ukraine exported agricultural and food products worth $5.73 billion to the European Union, which is $891 million, or 13%, less than in the same period last year, according to an EU report.
At the same time, Ukraine managed to maintain its fourth place in the list of suppliers of agricultural products to the EU during this period. Ahead of it are Brazil ($9.1 billion), the United Kingdom ($7.8 billion), and the United States ($6.9 billion).
The ranking of the largest suppliers of agricultural products to the EU also includes China ($5.24 billion), Côte d’Ivoire ($5.05 billion), Turkey ($3.68 billion), Vietnam ($2.81 billion), Argentina ($2.57 billion), and Switzerland ($2.51 billion).
In total, agricultural imports to the EU in January-July 2025 are estimated at $96.8 billion (+16%).
Agricultural exports from the EU during the same period amounted to $118.7 billion (+2%). At the same time, $2.1 billion (+17%) worth of goods were supplied to Ukraine.
Renewable energy sources (RES) in the European Union accounted for 54% of total electricity generation in the second quarter of 2025, up 1.3 percentage points from 52.7% a year earlier, the EU statistics office said.
This was mainly due to higher generation from solar power plants (SPPs), which accounted for 19.9% of total output.
At the same time, June was the first month in history when SES accounted for the bulk of generation (22%). This was followed by nuclear power plants (21.6%), wind power plants (15.8%), hydropower plants (14.1%) and gas-fired power plants (13.8%).
The most significant share of RES in total generation was recorded in Denmark (94.7%), where RES account for a significant amount of electricity generation. This is followed by Latvia (93.4%), Austria (91.8%), Croatia (89.5%) and Portugal (85.6%).
The lowest share of RES is in Slovakia (19.9%), Malta (21.2%) and the Czech Republic (22.1%).
Slovakia and a number of EU countries bordering Ukraine are advocating the creation of a special fund to compensate their farmers for losses caused by the growth in imports of Ukrainian agricultural products. This was announced by Slovak Minister of Agriculture Richard Takáč (Smer-SD) following a meeting of the EU Council on Agriculture in Brussels, according to the TASR news agency.
According to him, the European Commission had previously talked about a 25% increase in quotas for Ukrainian goods, but in reality the figures are much higher — “for honey and sugar, the increase is 400-500%.”
“One problem is quantity, another is product quality and safety. European farmers are required to comply with strict rules on fertilizers, pesticides, and EU standards, while in Ukraine such standards are often absent,” Takáč emphasized.
The minister noted that it was Ukraine’s neighboring countries, which experience the main influx of products, that approached the European Commission with this initiative, while Western European countries often benefit from cheaper imports and do not feel the pressure.
Takach suggested that Slovakia would not be able to “achieve 100% success” in the negotiations, but he is counting on a compromise solution.
“In the new EU financial plan and within the framework of the common agricultural policy, I see an opportunity to create a fund specifically for countries bordering Ukraine. This fund should compensate our farmers and processors for their losses,” he said, adding that Slovakia will seek support through the government and the prime minister.
According to him, agreements on this have already been reached with his Polish counterpart. The issue of increased quotas for Ukrainian agricultural products will also be discussed during the upcoming joint meeting of the governments of Ukraine and Slovakia.
Since 2022, the EU has provided Ukraine with unprecedented access to the common market to support the economy in wartime. However, a number of Eastern European countries — Poland, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia, and Bulgaria — have repeatedly complained about the growing pressure on their producers of grain, sugar, and other crops.
