Rising costs of raw materials and energy resources have led to an average 40% increase in the price of bread and flour in Ukraine over the past two years, according to the Ukrainian Flour Millers Association.
According to the association’s analytical report, published on the APK-Inform website, the price growth rate has been consistently high: in 2024, bread rose in price by 20-22%, and in 2025 — by another 19-23%. A similar 40% increase over a two-year period was also recorded for wheat flour.
According to the association, the price of premium wheat bread rose by 44% over the year to UAH 63.5/kg, rye bread by 45% to UAH 50.6/kg, and loaves by 34% to UAH 30.9/kg.
“Currently, the actual selling prices of flour are 10-15% lower than the declared prices and are practically equal to the cost price. With the average cost of grade 2 wheat at 10,300 UAH/ton and processing costs of no less than 2,500 UAH/ton, a 3% profit margin is a great achievement for flour millers,” the report notes.
Experts note that unlike bakers, who can compensate for the low profitability of social varieties with premium and small-piece products, millers are deprived of this opportunity due to the small sales volumes of packaged flour.
At the same time, “Flour Millers of Ukraine” noted a growing trend in Ukraine toward home baking.
“The population is increasingly turning to home baking. It is much cheaper, tastier, and becoming fashionable,” the industry association noted, adding that premium bread under the Tsar Bread and Kulynichi brands, which is distinguished by its excellent taste, costs more than UAH 100 per 1 kg and is unaffordable for many residents of Ukraine.
Flour exports from Ukraine fell to 66,800 tons in 2025, the lowest level since 2006, according to a report by the Ukrainian Flour Millers Association published by APK-Inform.
According to the data, this figure is 36.6% lower than the pre-war level in 2021 (105,300 tons) and 15.3% lower than the volume in 2022 (78,900 tons).
“The war has practically blocked the opportunity for our flour millers to earn extra money on the international market. Problems with logistics have led to the loss of almost all our usual markets. Only Moldova remains, and there is now an opportunity to export to the European Union, which accounts for more than half of the total volume,” the document notes.
The association emphasized that deliveries are currently carried out exclusively by rail and road transport. At the same time, experts stressed that until Ukrainian ports are opened, there will be no opportunity to compete with other exporters on the world market, nor any hope for growth in foreign trade volumes.
According to the Ukrainian Flour Millers Association, the recorded volume of flour exports of 66.8 thousand tons is the lowest since 2006, when only about 10.5 thousand tons of this product were supplied to foreign markets.
Wheat flour exports from Ukraine in the 2025/2026 season may amount to 65,000 tons, which is 2.6% lower than in the previous marketing year (67,000 tons), according to the information and analytical agency APK-Inform.
Analysts noted that in the first seven months of the 2025-2026 marketing year (MY, July-June), shipments to foreign markets amounted to 37.5 thousand tons, which is 7% less than in July-January of the previous season. In particular, in January 2026, exports fell by 23% to 4.3 thousand tons.
The main consumers of Ukrainian flour remain Moldova with a share of 30%, Palestine with 20%, and the Czech Republic with 16%. At the same time, the volumes of purchases by key importers decreased: Moldova imported 11.4 thousand tons (-8%), Palestine — 7.3 thousand tons (-10%), and the Czech Republic — 5.9 thousand tons (-32%). At the same time, analysts recorded an increase in demand from Israel and Spain, which purchased 3 thousand tons and 2.7 thousand tons, respectively, during the specified period.
Analysts attribute the decline in export estimates to a reduction in domestic production. In July-January 2025/26 MY, Ukraine produced 510.5 thousand tons of flour, which is 10% less than in the previous season, according to APK-Inform.
In December 2025, Tunisia imported 6.2 thousand tons of Ukrainian bran and feed flour (HS code 2302) worth $1.1 million, which is almost 26% of the total volume of supplies from Ukraine during this period in physical terms, according to the information and analytical agency “ APK-Inform ” reported.
“These are the first deliveries of this type of Ukrainian product to Tunisia since the beginning of both the marketing and calendar year. At the same time, in 2024, this country did not purchase the specified Ukrainian products,” analysts said.
According to their information, since the beginning of the 2025/26 marketing year (July 1 – December 23), Ukraine has supplied 168.6 thousand tons of bran and feed meal to foreign markets for a total of $26.8 million. The main buyers were Turkey (111.2 thousand tons), Syria (15.6 thousand tons), and Romania (9.7 thousand tons).
“In 2025/26 MY, flour production in Ukraine may reach 1.9 million tons (-8.4% compared to 2024/25 MY), which will result in wheat bran production of 530 thousand tons. At the current export rates, this will allow the export potential of this segment to reach 320-330 thousand tons, which is 8-11% less than in the previous marketing year,” APK-Inform noted.
For the first time in 2025, a separate annual quota for the supply of 30,000 tons of Ukrainian flour to the European Union has been granted, which opens up opportunities for long-term planning for the domestic flour milling business, said Rodion Rybchinsky, director of the Ukrainian Flour Millers Association.
“The top 10 export-oriented companies have already invested around EUR 17 million in modernization and now understand that these investments will have prospects,” he said at the “Agribusiness in Ukraine” conference in Kyiv on Thursday.
He recalled that until 2022, flour was exported within the joint quota with wheat. Flour millers usually did not have time to deliver their products to the EU, as grain traders were the first to choose the quota. Only after the opening of trade preferences in 2022 did Ukrainian flour begin to actively enter the EU market, and in 2023, flour exports to EU countries amounted to 73,000 tons.
“These volumes became an argument in the negotiations: if 73,000 tons were successfully delivered to the EU, the question of Ukrainian flour’s non-compliance with European quality requirements would be moot,” said Rybchynskyi.
According to him, Ukrainian flour is now available in Germany, the Czech Republic, Spain, and Italy, which is clear proof of the high quality of Ukrainian products.
Rybchynskyi noted that during the 11 months of 2025, Ukraine supplied 26,000 tons of this product to the EU, so by the end of the year, domestic producers will be able to fully use the quota. At the same time, the biggest problem for flour millers in 2026, if we assess the prospects of the industry, will be the labor shortage.
He named the European Millers’ Congress in France as one of the most anticipated events in the industry next year, during which the Ukrainian side will try to find arguments and establish contact, in particular, with the Romanian Association of Flour Producers, as well as try to lay the groundwork for a review of quotas in 2028. According to Rybchynsky’s estimates, Ukraine is capable of supplying 300,000 tons of flour to the EU market.
Ukraine exported 26,000 tons of wheat flour in the first five months of the 2025-2026 marketing year (MY, July-June), which is 11% less than in the same period of the previous MY. of which 5.4 thousand tons (-7%) were shipped in November, according to the information and analytical agency “APK-Inform.”
Analysts specified that the main volume of exports went to Moldova (30%), the Czech Republic (18%), and Palestine (16%).
“Importers have significantly reduced their purchases of Ukrainian products. For example, Moldova purchased 7.9 thousand tons this season, which is 10% less than in the previous season, and the Czech Republic purchased 4.7 thousand tons (-23%). Palestine reduced its imports, purchasing only 4.3 thousand tons compared to 5.7 thousand tons in the 2024/25 season (-25%),” experts said.
According to their estimates, in July-November 2025/26 MY, Ukraine produced 371.7 thousand tons of flour, which is 8% less than in the same period of 2024/25 MY.
“In general, wheat processing in 2025/26 MY is expected to reach 2.6 million tons, which is 2% less than last season,” APK-Inform predicts.
