The Cabinet of Ministers has approved a draft law amending the Tax Code of Ukraine, which provides for a gradual increase in excise duty on motor fuels by 2028, including gasoline by 68%.
The government’s representative in parliament, Taras Melnychuk, announced the approval of the draft law at a government meeting on Friday on Telegram.
According to his message, the draft law, in particular, proposes to set new rates of excise tax on fuel, taking into account their minimum level provided for by Directive 2003/96/EC, which comes into force on January 1, 2028. As noted in the report, a schedule of annual increases in such rates is established from July 1, 2024 to January 31, 2027 inclusive.
At the same time, MP Yaroslav Zheleznyak (Voice faction) published a schedule of rate increases to the draft law on his Telegram channel, according to which in the first half of this year the excise tax on motor gasoline will be EUR 213.5 per thousand liters, and in the second half of this year – EUR213.5/thousand liters, and in the second half of the year it should increase to EUR242.6/thousand liters and after further gradual increase in 2025-2027 in 2028 it should be EUR359/thousand liters. Thus, based on these figures, the excise tax on gasoline will increase by 68% from 2024 to 2028. The excise tax on diesel fuel, which is EUR139.5/thousand liters, should increase to EUR177.6/thousand liters in the second half of the year and to EUR330/thousand liters in 2028 (plus 136.5%).
As for liquefied gas, the figures are EUR52/thousand liters, EUR55.6/thousand liters, EUR70/thousand liters (plus 34.6%), and for alternative fuels – EUR162/thousand liters, EUR184.08/thousand liters, EUR272.4/thousand liters (plus 68%).
As reported, in mid-March 2022, the Rada adopted a law on additional tax incentives to support businesses during the war, aimed, in particular, at keeping fuel prices down. According to the law, fuel was temporarily subject to zero excise duty and 7% VAT instead of 20% for the period of martial law.
On September 21, 2022, the Rada adopted draft law No. 7668-d on the return of excise taxes on motor fuels, setting them at EUR 100 for gasoline and diesel (hereinafter referred to as per 1 thousand liters), EUR 52 for liquefied gas, butane and isobutane, and EUR 100 for alternative motor fuels and biodiesel. VAT for all fuels remained at 7%.
However, according to this document, from July 1, 2023, the level of fuel taxes returned to the pre-war level: VAT – up to 20%, excise tax on gasoline – up to EUR213, diesel fuel – up to EUR140 per 1 thousand liters.
The price of gasoline in August this year may reach the mark of 60.86 UAH/liter, diesel fuel – 55.61 UAH/liter, gas – 26.63 UAH/liter, according to the data of consulting group A-95, posted by its director Sergei Kuyun in his Facebook on Friday.
He commented that the strongest impetus for the movement of prices at gas stations is created by the “delayed integration of increased taxes and the growth of world quotations”.
“If you put everything in a pile, the prospect of reaching 60 UAH/liter of gasoline and 55 UAH/liter of DT is absolutely real. Yes, I think up to 3 UAH/l will be amortized at the expense of retail markup, but this is such a sedative,” Kuyun wrote.
According to his calculations, the rise in the price of gasoline in July by less than 4 UAH / l, diesel fuel – a little more than 4 UAH / l and autogas by 1.5 UAH / l, despite the forecasts, providing at least a doubling of prices, due to the sale by market players of fuel stocks formed in May and June – before the abolition of preferential taxes.
“The key contribution to July stability was made by well-prepared OKKO, WOG and Ukrnafta, thanks to which prices have not yet crossed the 50 UAH/liter mark,” the expert noted.
At the same time, he pointed out that July fuel is increasingly replacing preliminary volumes with low production costs, and this process will be completed by mid-August.
He called its appreciation on the world market another factor in the projected increase in the price of motor fuel.
“Gasoline and diesel fuel added $130-140/t, which is an average of 5 UAH/liter (of course, with the new 20% VAT). Gas soared by $70/t (1.7 UAH/liter). We are in the season of maximum consumption worldwide, so hope for a significant cooling of prices, in my opinion, is not worth it,” – said the director of A-95.
In addition, he drew attention to the shelling of Ukrainian ports by the Russians, as a result of which tanker owners, according to him, have lost the desire to carry fuel to Romanian ports and Moldovan Giurgiulesti.
“Those who agree have raised freight rates by almost 50% (and some, they say, by 100%) and demand insurance for the lives of the entire crew, including families. One can understand: it’s like that rocket to fly across the Danube… There have also been cases of direct threats to civilian ships by Russian warships. The problems in the south will also keep the prices up,” the expert described the situation.
In his opinion, in order to overcome these problems, which he called not new for the Ukrainian market, it is necessary to increase contracts on land, in the northern and western directions.
In addition, he spoke in favor of consolidation of traders who together could conclude long-term contracts for large tanker shipments, in particular with American companies.
“This would guarantee a resource and a good price on a large volume. In addition, this product would guarantee to replace various toxic resources of diesel fuel from Turkey, India, Saudi Arabia, which frankly smell of “narrow” perfume,” – summarized Kuyun.
As reported, in mid-March 2022, the Rada adopted a law on additional tax incentives to support business during the war, aimed, among other things, to keep fuel prices down. According to it, temporarily, for the period of martial law, zero excise tax and VAT of 7% instead of 20% were set on fuel.
On September 21, 2022, the Rada passed Bill No. 7668-d on the return of excise taxes on motor fuel, setting them at EUR100 for gasoline and diesel (hereinafter – per 1,000 liters), EUR52 for liquefied gas, butane and isobutane, and EUR100 for alternative motor fuel and biodiesel. VAT for all types of fuel remained at 7%.
However, according to this document, from July 1, 2023 the level of fuel taxes returned to the pre-war level: VAT – to 20%, excise duty on gasoline – to EUR213, on diesel – to EUR140 per 1,000 liters.
First deputy prime minister of economy of Ukraine Yulia Sviridenko predicts that the retail price of diesel fuel during the month will increase by 5 UAH/liter, gasoline – by 7-8 UAH/liter.
“We see and forecast together with gas station operators that by the end of July the increase will be 5 UAH for diesel and 7-8 UAH for gasoline,” she said on the air of the national marathon on Tuesday.
Sviridenko specified that arithmetically returning to the prewar level of excises on motor fuel and increase of VAT on it may lead to increase of price on diesel fuel up to 8 UAH/liter and petrol – up to 11 UAH/liter. At the same time the accumulated fuel reserves and lack of shortages should not lead to a sharp rise in prices.
“We see that there will not be a sharp rise in price. There are several factors – there is no shortage, there are stocks, the market in Europe is flooded with resources, so there will not be sharp jumps. Much, of course, depends on the price situation in the world, but today we do not expect sharp fluctuations,” she added.
As it was reported with reference to director of A-95 Sergii Kuyun, fuel prices will not rise from July 1, but will rise gradually. According to him, the tax burden on gasoline will increase by 11 UAH / l, 8 UAH / l – on diesel fuel, 3 UAH / l – on liquefied gas.
“Some part of it, at least 2-3 hryvnias per liter will be taken by the network, but diesel will add 100 per cent 5 hryvnias per liter, petrol – 7-8 hryvnias per liter. The price for gas will be the same 3 hryvnias/liter higher,” he predicted in his comments to Energoreforma a few days before the end of June.
Much will depend on the purchase price of petroleum products, most of which are imported. According to Kuyun, if world prices fail, there will be preconditions for them to compensate the increase of tax burden.
In the middle of March 2022, the Rada passed a law on additional tax incentives for business support during the war, aimed, in particular, at keeping fuel prices down. According to it, temporarily, for the period of martial law, a zero excise tax and VAT of 7% instead of 20% were set for fuel.
On September 21, 2022, the Rada passed the bill No. 7668-d on the return of excise taxes on motor fuel, setting them at EUR100 for gasoline and diesel (hereinafter 1,000 liters), EUR52 for liquefied gas, butane and isobutane, and EUR100 for alternative motor fuel and biodiesel.
VAT for all fuels remained at 7%. But according to this law, starting July 1, 2023, fuel taxes return to the prewar level: VAT – to 20%, excise tax on gasoline – to EUR213, diesel fuel – to EUR140 per 1000 liters.
Gasoline imports for 28 days in December increased by half compared to November, diesel fuel – by 10%, wrote in Facebook director of consulting group A-95 Sergey Kuyun on Thursday.
“In 28 days of December, gasoline imports increased one and a half times compared to November, diesel fuel – by 10%. For the last three days of the year, the result will be even better,” he said.
According to the expert, some networks of filling stations already have a reserve of fuel for the entire January 2023.
“Yesterday the “precipitation” of prices has already begun, today it is expected to continue,” Kuyun added.
According to the price bulletin of the group “A-95”, the average retail price of gasoline A-95 in Ukraine on Thursday, in particular, was 51.99 UAH / liter, down from December 27 by 0.8% (52.38 UAH / liter), the price of “A-95 +” – 53.07 UAH / liter (0.1% lower than on December 27 – 53.13 UAH / liter).
Average retail prices for gasoline in Ukraine in the period from August 20 to August 28 fell by UAH 0.40-0.50 per liter, according to the data of the A-95consulting group (Kyiv).
In particular, the prices for gasoline grade A-92 fell by 1.4% (by UAH 0.42), to UAH 28.89 per liter, A-95 – by 1.7% (UAH by 0.51), to UAH 29.71 per liter, premium A-95 – by 1.6% (by UAH 0.51), to UAH 31.62 per liter.
In addition, the average price of diesel fuel for the week fell by 1% (by UAH 0.29), to UAH 27.93 per liter, while the price of LPG grew by 0.1% (by UAH 0.02), to UAH 17.48 per liter.
As reported, the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine on August 26 announced the cost of gasoline to be UAH 25.53 per liter and diesel fuel – UAH 21.11 per liter, from which the price caps for fuel at filling stations are calculated at the end of August and beginning of September.
Taking into account the trade margins, the price cap for “ordinary” gasoline for its sale through the filling station network shall not exceed UAH 30.53 per liter, for “ordinary” diesel fuel – UAH 28.11 per liter. Compared to the middle of August, the average price for gasoline fell by UAH 0.53 per liter, for diesel fuel – by UAH 1.14 per liter.
The setting of the price caps does not include “branded premium fuel” with improved quality indicators.
The Ministry of Economy of Ukraine announced the average cost of gasoline at UAH 26.64 per liter and diesel fuel at UAH 22.25 per liter, on which the fuel selling price caps at filling stations at the end of July is based.
Thus, taking into account the trade markups, the price cap for “ordinary” gasoline for its sale through the filling station network shall not exceed UAH 31.64 per liter and for “ordinary” diesel fuel – UAH 29.25 per liter.
Compared to the middle of the month, the average price for gasoline fell by UAH 0.23 per liter, for diesel fuel – by UAH 0.35 per liter.
