Grain harvest in Ukraine in the 2018/19 agricultural year (July-June) could grow by 3% compared with the previous year, to 61.85 million tonnes, according to projections of the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA). “In the 2017/18 agri-year exports of grain will be 40.6 million tonnes, and next agri-year we forecast growth of exports by 6%, to 43.3 million tonnes,” UGA President Mykolav Horbachev said.
In particular, wheat harvest in the 2018/19 agir-year could expand by 2.2%, to 27.1 million tonnes, that for corn – by 9%, to 27 million tonnes, and the barley harvest could narrow by 9.3%, to 7.8 million tonnes.
The association said that in the 2018/19 agri-year wheat exports could grow by 5.8%, to 18 million tonnes, corn – by 10.5%, to 21 million tonnes, and barley exports could fall by 6.5%, to 4.3 million tonnes.
As of April 24, 2018, Ukraine exported 15.4 million tonnes of wheat, 4.1 million tonnes of barley and 13.8 million tonnes of corn, according to the UGA.
The grain harvest in Ukraine may grow from 61.3 million tonnes in 2017 to 62 million tonnes in 2018, according to the UkrAgroConsult consulting agency. “This year the gross harvest will reach the level of 62 million tonnes. Exports will amount to 41 million tonnes for the 2017/2018 marketing year. In the next marketing year we forecast growth of exports by at least one million tonnes,” grain market analyst at UkrAgroConsult Maryna Sych said at a press conference at Interfax-Ukraine.
According to her, this year there is a competition between crops due to the fact that the timing of sowing early and late spring crops has almost coincided.
“Now we have virtually a week to fulfill the barley sowing plan, as further it will be necessary to start sowing maize and sunflower. The question of implementing the plan for sowing spring barley remains open,” she said. UkrAgroConsult expects in the current conditions that the area under barley this year will be reduced, the yield will be about 7.7-7.8 million tonnes. If the farmers manage to fulfill the barley sowing plan, the crop can reach eight million tonnes against 8.3 million tonnes in 2017.
The area under maize, according to the agency, will remain at last year’s level. There may be a slight increase in the area if it is necessary to compensate for the reduction of barley crops. The maize harvest is projected at 26 million tonnes, or at 28 million tonnes if the sowing area is increased, compared to 24.1 million tonnes in 2017.
The analysis of weather information and gardeners’ reports on the situation in the gardens make it possible to hope for a record high apple harvest, as well as the yield of many other types of fruits and berries in Ukraine in 2018, the Ukrainian Horticultural Association has said. According to a preliminary forecast of the association, the anomalously cold and snowy March of the current year with a high probability will delay the flowering of the gardens, which will allow reducing the likelihood of losses from spring frosts, while the relatively stable climatic conditions of the winter allowed gardeners to almost completely prevent damage and depletion of trees.
The experts expect the total harvest in 2018 to increase, as a significant number of young gardens will begin to bear fruit.
The union said the EU expects a record high apple harvest after last year’s frosts sharply reduced productivity in the gardens. Accordingly, competition in the European apple market will intensify, which will affect prices.
“It’s worth expecting a sharp decline in prices in the apple market in Ukraine. Especially it will be difficult for producers who grow apples of not very popular varieties and low quality. It is likely that such apples will be sold at the same price as industrial ones. At the same time, quality apples of prospective varieties will be actively exported, so exporting producers can even increase their revenue compared to the 2017/2018 season. Quality apples will be sold in the domestic market at a 30-50% lower price than in the previous season,” the association notes.