Business news from Ukraine

MACRO MONTHLY SUMMARY, MAIN STATISTICS OF UKRAINE IN JUNE-JULY, 2019

The Institute of International Finance (IIF) predicts a slowdown in real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Ukraine from 3.3% in 2018 to 2.8% in 2019 and its subsequent slight acceleration to 2.9% in 2020.
The National Bank of Ukraine has improved its macro forecast for 2019–2021: the estimate of the real growth of the economy this year has been raised from 2.5% to 3%, and in the next year from 2.9% to 3.2%.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-May 2019 increased by 27.4% compared with January-May 2018, to $2.634 billion, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine on July 10 approved the strategy for the development of exports of agricultural, food and processing industry products until 2026, as well as a plan for its implementation, the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food has said.
Ukraine’s Investment Attractiveness Index in January-June 2019 fell to the level of 2016, being 2.85 points on a 5-grade scale compared with 3.07 in H2 2018, according to findings of the European Business Association (EBA).
The actual inflation rate in Ukraine in June 2019 was higher than the forecast published in the Inflation Report (April 2019), according to the NBU’s commentary on the inflation rate posted on the central bank’s website.
Consumer prices in Ukraine in June 2019 fell by 0.5% compared with May 2019, while in annual terms inflation of 9% was seen, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine reported.
The surplus of Ukraine’s national budget in H1 2019 totaled UAH 2.1 billion, including the deficit of the general fund of the national budget being UAH 6.8 billion, while in January-May 2019 the surplus of the national budget was UAH 7.7 billion with the deficit of the general fund of UAH 2.14 billion, Ukraine’s Finance Ministry has reported on its website, referring to preliminary data from the State Treasury Service of Ukraine.
The deficit of the national budget of Ukraine in January-June 2019 amounted to UAH 871 million, in particular the general fund deficit was UAH 8.67 billion with the target being UAH 22.99 billion, the State Treasury Service has said.
The assets of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) in January-June 2019 decreased by 5.3% and amounted to UAH 993.707 billion, the corresponding financial indicators were published by the central bank in the Uriadovy Kurier edition.
The consolidated balance of payments of Ukraine in May 2019 saw a deficit of $750 million against a deficit of $45 million in April, a surplus of $652 million in March 2019 and $266 million in May 2018, which is associated with large payments on public debt and an increase in cash outside banks.
Industrial production in Ukraine in June 2019 decreased by 2.3% compared with June 2018, after growing in May by 1.6%, April by 5.2%, in March by 2.1% , Ukraine’s State Statistics Service reported.
The transport enterprises of Ukraine (excluding the territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol, as well as part of the JFO area) in January-June 2019 increased freight transportation by 8.2% compared to the same period of 2018, to 328.5 million tonnes, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The transport companies of Ukraine in January-June 2019 carried 2.137 billion people, which is 6.3% less than in the same period of 2018, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The volume of construction work performed in Ukraine in June 2019 increased by 1.7% compared with June 2018, while the indicator in May 2019 vs May 2018 rose by 15.7%.
In January-June 2019, retail trade in Ukraine increased by 10.3% in comparable prices year-over-year, the State Statistics Service reported.

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MACRO MONTHLY SUMMARY, MAIN STATISTICS OF UKRAINE IN MAY-JUNE, 2019

IMF expects the completion of parliamentary elections in Ukraine to continue negotiations on further cooperation with the country, IMF Spokesperson Gerry Rice has said at a briefing in Washington.
The growth of Ukraine’s gross domestic product in January-March 2019 was 2.5% compared to the same period in 2018, the State Statistics Service has reported, while according to its preliminary estimate made in mid-May this figure was 2.2%.
Ukraine could receive the second tranche of EU macro-financial assistance in the amount of EUR 500 million by the end of 2019, Head of the EU Delegation to Ukraine Hugues Mingarelli has said.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said that he does not offer large businessmen Victor Pinchuk, Rinat Akhmetov, Ihor Kolomoisky and other representatives of business any preferences, but offers only honest common rules for everyone.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said about his vision of how to make Ukraine the really rich country and called on business to invest money, time and ideas in Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has invited foreign business to participate in the investment council under the Presidential Administration of Ukraine, which will meet twice a year.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-April 2019 grew by 45.2% compared with January-April 2018, to $2.093 billion, the State Statistics Service said.
Inflation in Ukraine in May 2019 was 0.7% compared to 1% in April, 0.9% in March, 0.5% in February and 1% in January, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine has reported.
The surplus of the Ukrainian national budget in January-May 2019 was UAH 8.6 billion, with the target being UAH 90 billion over the year, according to the Ministry of Finance’s website.
Revenue of Ukraine’s national budget in May 2019 totaled UAH 104.119 billion, which is 8.5% more than it was expected that 7.5% more compared with May 2018, according to information posted on the website of the State Treasury Service of Ukraine.
Money supply in Ukraine in May 2019 decreased by 0.3%, to UAH 1.260 trillion, the corresponding preliminary data are posted on the website of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
The international reserves of Ukraine in May 2019, according to preliminary data, decreased by 5.5%, to $19.402 billion due to significant repayments of government debt, according to the NBU’s website.
The aggregate state (direct) and state-guaranteed debt of Ukraine in May 2019 fell by 1.8% or $1.4 billion, to $78.39 billion.
Ukraine’s gross external debt as of April 1, 2019 was $114.43 billion, which is $0.28 billion, or 0.24%, less than at the beginning of the year, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) said.
The deficit of Ukraine’s consolidated balance of payment in April 2019 totaled $45 million, while the surplus in March was $652 million.
Industrial production in Ukraine in May 2019 increased by 1.6% compared with May 2018, after a rise of 5.2% in April, 2.1% in March, and a fall of 1.8% and 3.3% in February and January respectively, the State Statistics Service has reported.
Industrial prices in Ukraine in May 2019 increased by 2.1%, after falling by 1.5% in April and by 1% in March, growing by 1% in February and January, the State Statistics Service said.
The volume of construction work performed in Ukraine in May 2019 increased by 15.7% compared with May 2018, while the indicator in April 2019 compared with April 2018 rose by 29.4%.
Retail trade turnover in Ukraine in January-May 2019 in comparable prices increased by 9.6% compared with January-May 2018, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) equals 82.8 in May, which is 11.2 points higher than the indicator in April, the values of indices can vary from 0 to 200, according to a study by Info Sapiens.

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MACRO MONTHLY SUMMARY, MAIN STATISTICS OF UKRAINE IN MARCH-APRIL, 2019

Volodymyr Zelensky has won 73.22% of the vote and Petro Poroshenko has received 24.45% of the vote, Ukraine’s Central Election Commission (CEC) said, after counting 100% of the ballot papers cast in the April 21 second round of the presidential election.
Ukrainians expect from a new president in the first 100 days of his activity a price lowering in utility tariffs, the submission to parliament of bills on lifting immunity from deputies, judges and the president, as well as the start or acceleration of investigations into the most resonant corruption crimes.
The Ministry of Economic Development and Trade has worsened the forecast for the growth of Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) in 2019 to 2.8% from 3%. The World Bank has worsened the forecast for the growth of Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2019 to 2.7% from 2.9%, according to the April review of the World Bank “Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, Spring 2019: Financial Inclusion.”
The growth of Ukraine’s real GDP in 2019 will slow down to 2.5%, but as the level of political uncertainty decreases by 2020, economic growth will resume to 3%, according to the macroeconomic forecast of HSBC.
Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2019 will slow down from 3.3% last year to 2.7% this year and 2.6% next year with the hryvnia exchange rate weakening to UAH 30.5 per $1 by the end of 2019 and UAH 31.5/$1 by the end of 2020, Morgan Stanley bank predicts.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) uses the average annual forex rate set at UAH 28.681 per U.S. dollar for 2019 and UAH 29.958 per U.S. dollar for 2020 when converting GDP in hryvnias to U.S. dollars in its updated April 2019 World Economic Outlook, which is almost the same as in the previous outlook issued last October.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) plans in 2019 to increase the volume of investment in the Ukrainian economy to $1 billion, head of the Ukrainian office of the EBRD Marina Petrov has stated.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January and February 2019 grew by 4.5% compared with January and February 2018, to $760 million, the State Statistics Service said.
Inflation in Ukraine in March 2019 was 0.9% compared to 0.5% in February and 1% in January, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine has reported.
The deficit of the national budget of Ukraine in January-March 2019 amounted to UAH 26.166 billion, in particular the general fund deficit was UAH 39.272 billion with the target being UAH 43.54 billion, according to data released by the State Treasury Service.
The deficit of the national budget of Ukraine in the first quarter of 2019 was UAH 25.3 billion with the approved annual figure of UAH 90 billion, such preliminary data of the State Treasury Service were voiced by the Ministry of Finance.
The aggregate state (direct) and state-guaranteed debt of Ukraine in March 2019 increased by 0.7%, or by $0.54 billion compared with February 2019, to $78.78 billion, according to the website of the Ministry of Finance.
Ukraine’s state (direct) debt in January-March 2019 fell by 0.05% or UAH 0.9 billion, to UAH 1.859 trillion, the Finance Ministry of Ukraine has reported on its Facebook page.
Industrial prices in Ukraine in March decreased by 1% after rising by 1% in February and January, the State Statistics Service has said.
Industrial production in Ukraine in March 2019 increased by 2.1% compared with March 2018, which is better than the figures in January and February, when a decline was recorded, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The transport companies of Ukraine in January-March 2019 reduced passenger traffic by 6% compared with January-March 2018, to 1.061 billion people, the State Statistics Service has reported. Transport enterprises of Ukraine in January-March 2019 increased cargo transportation by 8.9% compared to January-March 2018, to 163.3 million tonnes.
The volume of construction work performed in Ukraine in March 2019 increased by 29.7% compared with March 2018, while the indicator in February 2019 compared with February 2018 grew by 19.4%, according to statistics.
Retail trade turnover in Ukraine in comparable prices in January-March 2019 increased by 7.4% compared to January-March 2018, to UAH 235.804 billion the State Statistics Service has reported.

MAIN STATISTICS OF UKRAINE IN FEB, 2019

The real gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine in 2018 grew by 3.3% after raising by 2.5% in 2017 and by 2.4% in 2016, the State Statistics Service has stated.
Real wages in Ukraine in February 2019 compared with February 2018 increased by 10.7%, while compared with January 2019 it decreased by 1.7%, the State Statistics Service has reported.
Total wage arrears in Ukraine in January 2019 decreased by 1.2%, and as of February 1, 2019 amounted to UAH 2.614 billion, the State Statistics Service has reported.
Exports of goods from Ukraine in January 2019 from January 2018 grew by 9.2%, to $4.066 billion, while imports increased by a mere 0.7%, to $4.045 billion, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The annual inflation rate in Ukraine in February is in line with the forecast of the central bank, according to the website of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
Inflation in Ukraine in February 2019 was 0.5% compared with 1% in January and 0.8% in December last year, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine has reported.
Industrial prices in Ukraine in February 2019 increased by 1%, as a month earlier, after decreasing in December 2018 by 0.4% and growing in November 2018 by 1.7%, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The deficit of the national budget of Ukraine in January-February 2019 amounted to UAH 13.7 billion, in particular the general fund deficit was UAH 28.65 billion with the target being UAH 28.32 billion, according to the State Treasury Service.
The revenues of the national budget of Ukraine in February 2019 amounted to UAH 70.2 billion, which is 8.3% more than the target and 24.8% more than in February 2018, in particular UAH 56.6 billion was sent to the general fund, or 2.1% less than the target and 12.2% more year-on-year, according to data released by the State Treasury Service.
Revenue of Ukrainian banks, not taking into account insolvent ones, in January and February 2019, totaled UAH 39.279 billion, which is 40.4% more than a year ago, according to a posting on the website of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
The total public (direct) and state-guaranteed debt of Ukraine in February 2019 decreased by 0.02% compared with January 2019, to $78.24 billion, the Ministry of Finance has reported. Ukraine’s payments on gross external debt in 2019 will be $15.7 billion, according to data on the website of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
Industrial production in Ukraine in February 2019 decreased by 1.8% compared with February 2018, which is better than the figure in January, when the decline was 3.3%, the State Statistics Service has reported.
Capital investment in agriculture in 2018 totaled UAH 90 billion, including UAH 25 billion invested in processing, Ukrainian Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman has said.
Transport enterprises of Ukraine in January and February 2019 increased cargo transportation by 5.9% compared to January and February 2018, to 103.1 million tonnes. The transport companies of Ukraine in January and February 2019 reduced passenger traffic by 6% compared with January and February 2018, to 685.4 million people.
The volume of construction work carried out in Ukraine in February 2019 increased by 19.4% compared with February 2018, while in January 2019 from January 2018 this figure increased by 6.2%.
Retail trade turnover in Ukraine in comparable prices in January and February 2019 increased by 6.8% compared to January and February 2018, to UAH 150.913 billion, the State Statistics Service has reported.

SAVINGS OF UKRAINIANS UAH 16.8 BLN UP – STATISTICS

The income of the population of Ukraine in 2018 amounted to UAH 3.22 trillion, expenses to UAH 3.202 trillion, while the savings of Ukrainians rose by UAH 16.8 billion, the State Statistics Service has reported.
According to its data, disposable income, which can be used to purchase goods and pay for services, over this period grew by 21.9%.
Disposable income per capita in the third quarter amounted to UAH 57,909, which is 22.5% more than in 2018.

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MACRO MONTHLY SUMMARY, MAIN STATISTICS OF UKRAINE IN JAN, 2019

Capital investments in Ukraine for 2018 increased by 16.4%, while for 2017 by 22.1%, the State Statistics Service has said.
Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2018 increased by 3.4% compared to the same period of 2017, while it grew by 2.8% in the third quarter, by 3.8% in the second quarter, and by 3.1% in the first quarter, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine said.
The Economic Development and Trade Ministry of Ukraine expects that the country’s economy will grow by 3.8% in 2020 and by 4.1% in 2021.
Ukraine’s Economic Development and Trade Ministry has promptly assessed growth of the country’s GDP at 3.2%, Ukrainian Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman said at a government meeting.
The indicator of economic sentiment in Ukraine calculated by the State Statistics Service in the first quarter of 2019 was 106.3% compared with 104% and 106.1% respectively in the fourth and first quarters of 2018.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in 2018 was estimated at $5.83 billion, which was 2.3 times more than the indicator in 2017, the State Statistics Service reported.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in 2018 grew by 54.5% compared with 2017, to $9.801 billion (to $6.343 billion in 2017), the State Statistics Service said.
The surplus of Ukraine’s foreign trade in services in 2018 increased by 15.5% from 2017, to $6.049 billion ($5.238 billion in 2017), the State Statistics Service reported.
Ukraine in 2018 expanded geography of export of goods and increased the number of companies, which were authorized to export food of animal origin, according to a report of the State Service for Food Safety and Consumers’ Protection.
Inflation in Ukraine in January 2019 was 1% against 0.8% in December 2018, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine said.
Industrial producers’ prices in Ukraine in January 2019 increased by 1% after a decline in December 2018 by 0.4% and an increase in November by 1.7%, in October by 0.3% and September by 1.2%, the State Statistics Service.
The deficit of the national budget of Ukraine in January 2019 amounted to UAH 11.93 billion, in particular the general fund deficit was UAH 18.2 billion with the target being UAH 15.82 billion, according to the State Treasury Service.
Revenue of Ukraine’s national budget in January 2019 totaled UAH 54.49 billion, which is UAH 6.56 billion or 10.8% less than the target for the period, and UAH 700 million or 1.3% less than in January 2018.
The assets of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) in 2018 increased by 2.4% and amounted to UAH 1.051 trillion, the corresponding financial indicators were published by the central bank in the Holos Ukrainy newspaper.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has reviewed downwards the assessment of growth of real GDP of the country in 2018 to 3.3% from 3.4%, according to a posting on the website of the central bank.
The aggregate state (direct) and state-guaranteed debt of Ukraine in January 2019 decreased by 0.09%, or $ 70million, compared to December 2018, to $78.25 billion, the Ministry of Finance has reported.
The ratio of the state debt and the gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine in 2018 fell to 60.9% from 68% in 2017, according to a presentation of the Economic Development and Trade Ministry of Ukraine.
Ukraine’s international reserves did not change in January 2019 and remained at the level of $20.82 billion in the equivalent, according to the website of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
The surplus of Ukraine’s balance of payment in 2018 grew by 12.1% compared with the previous year, to $2.88 billion, according to preliminary data published by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
Industrial production in Ukraine in January 2019 decreased by 3.3% compared with January 2018, whereas in January last year its growth by 4.3% was recorded, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The volume of sold industrial products (goods, services) in 2018 stood at UAH 2.507 trillion, which is 16.5% more than in 2017, in particular the volume sold abroad was worth UAH 681.927 billion, the State Statistics Service has reported.
Transport enterprises of Ukraine in January 2019 increased cargo transportation by 4.8% compared to January 2018, to 51.5 million tonnes. The transport companies of Ukraine in January 2019 reduced passenger traffic by 6.5% compared with January 2018, to 342.9 million people, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The volume of construction work performed in Ukraine in January 2019 increased by 6.2% compared with January 2018, while the indicator in December 2018 compared with December 2017 fell by 8.8%, according to statistics.
Retail trade turnover in Ukraine in comparable prices in January 2019 increased by 6.3% compared to January 2018, the State Statistics Service has reported.

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