Business news from Ukraine

AVERAGE MONTHLY WAGE BY REGION FOR JULY 2020, UAH

Average monthly wage by region for July 2020, UAH.

NUMBER OF CATTLE IN UKRAINE DOWN – STATISTICS

The number of cattle (big cattle) in Ukraine (excluding the temporarily occupied territory of Crimea, Sevastopol, the JFO zone) as of August 1, 2020 amounted to 3.45 million heads, which is 6.7% less than on the same date in 2019.
According to the State Statistics Service (Derzhstat), the number of cows by the indicated date has decreased by 6.3% – to 1.78 million heads.
The number of pigs decreased by 4.4% – to 6.12 million heads, the number of sheep and goats – by 6.2%, to 1.45 million heads.
The poultry population in the country decreased by 3.4% compared to August 1, 2019, to 248.8 million heads.
According to preliminary data from the State Statistics Service, the number of cattle in Ukraine in 2019 amounted to 3.12 million heads, which is 6.5% less than in 2018. The number of pigs decreased by 4.9% to 5.73 million heads, sheep and goats by 4.8%, to 1.21 million heads, and poultry increased by 4.2% – to 220.46 million heads.

,

MACRO MONTHLY SUMMARY, MAIN STATISTICS OF UKRAINE IN MAY 2020

BofA Global Research analysts again worsened the forecast for the pace of real GDP in Ukraine: in 2020, they now expect it to fall by 6.8% compared to 5.6% earlier, and in 2021 – by 6.5% instead of the previous estimate of 7.4%. The reduction of Ukraine’s GDP in January-April 2020 will deepen to 5%, the Ministry of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture of Ukraine expects in a review of economic activity in April.
Ukraine’s economy will shrink by 3.5% in 2020 due to the coronavirus-related crisis, while the global economy will lose 5.2% overall, the World Bank announced this in the updated Global Economic Prospects.
Ukraine’s GDP will fall by 6.7% in 2020, but the country’s economy will recover by 5.7% in 2021, ICU Investment Group predicts.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reviewed downwards its forecast for Ukraine’s GDP decline in 2020 to 8.2% from 7.7% in its April World Economic Outlook.
The Cabinet of Ministers has said that a drop of Ukraine’s GDP in 2020 could be up to 8% compared to 2019, according to the updated government action plan.
The decline of Ukraine’s GDP in January-March 2020 was 1.3% year-over-year, while according to the preliminary assessment published in the middle of May, the indicator was 1.5%.
The fall in Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020 may be deeper than expected in the April forecast of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), that is, below the 5% level, the regulator’s website reports.
Head of Dragon Capital Tomas Fiala predicts a decline in Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020 by about 7% and its recovery in 2021 by about 4%.
The ICU Investment Group estimates Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP) decline in May 2020 at 10.3% year-over-year and predicts a 10% year-over-year decline in the second quarter, Head of the macroeconomic research department of the group Serhiy Nikolaichuk has said.
The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) new program for Ukraine betrays Ukraine’s national interests, Opposition Platform-For Life faction co-chairman Yuriy Boiko said.
The total losses for the Ukrainian economy from the introduction of quotas for the import of mineral fertilizers could be $100-238 million, according to a study by the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE).
The Ministry for Development of Economy, Trade and Agriculture of Ukraine expects that the Ukrainian economy would resume growth in October-December 2020, Minister Ihor Petrashko has said.
Real wages in Ukraine in May 2020 increased 1.4% compared with May 2019, while compared with April 2020 by 0.8%, the State Statistics Service has said. According to the authority, the average nominal wage of full time employees in May 2020 compared with April 2020 grew by 1.1%, year-over-year (compared with May 2019) it rose by 3%, amounting to UAH 10,542.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-April 2020 decreased by 3.15 times (66.7%) compared with January-April 2019, to $675 million from $2.124 billion, the State Statistics Service has reported.
According to its data, export of goods from Ukraine for the reporting period compared to the same period in 2019 decreased by 1.7%, to $16.086 billion, imports by 9.3%, to $16.76 billion.

,

MACRO MONTHLY SUMMARY, MAIN STATISTICS OF UKRAINE IN APRIL 2020

Bank of America (BofA) analysts expect a decline in Ukraine’s GDP in 2020 by 5.6%, according to a review of the investment bank.
Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal during Freedom of Speech of Savik Shuster program on Ukraine TV Channel later on Friday presented a brief strategy of gradual weakening of the quarantine for the period from early May to early July.
The decline of Ukraine’s real GDP in 2020 could be 6-8%, the ICU investment group has said.
The lack of government support for the creative industry during the quarantine period can lead to massive unemployment in the industry and a drop in GDP, Head of the Verkhovna Rada committee for humanitarian and information policy MP Oleksandr Tkachenko has told Interfax-Ukraine.
Fitch Ratings has revised the Outlook on Ukraine’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to Stable from Positive and affirmed the IDR at ‘B’.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has worsened the forecast of the balance of payments in 2020 to a deficit of $1.1 billion from a surplus of $3.2 billion, but expects its surplus to be restored as early as 2021.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) revised downwards the assessment of the pace of real GDP of Ukraine for 2020 from 3.5% growth to 5% decline, while improving the expectations for its growth in 2021 from 4% to 4.3%.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has urged the Ukrainians to continue observing quarantine restrictions throughout the May holidays so that the state authorities could begin softening the quarantine starting May 11
The drop in gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine in January-February 2020 amounted to 0.2%, the Ministry of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture said.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal has said that the Cabinet of Ministers will present its plan and steps to restore the economy after the turning point in the development of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic is seen and which the country is moving towards in a moderate and smooth pace.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects that Ukraine’s GDP would fall by 7.7% in 2020 and grow by 3.6% in 2021, according to the World Economic Outlook published by the IMF on Tuesday.
Consumer prices in Ukraine in April grew by 0.8%, the State Statistics Service has reported.
At the same time, in April last year, price growth was higher: it was 1%, therefore, inflation in April 2020 year-over-year slowed to 2.1% from 2.3% in March and 4.1% in 2019 .
The Board of the National Bank of Ukraine has decided to cut the key policy rate from 10% to 8%, the NBU said. The NBU expects that the key policy rate to be reduced further, to 7% in the current year.
Industrial production in Ukraine in March 2020 decreased by 7.7% compared to March 2019, while in February the decline was 1.5%, in January 5.1%, in December 2019 also 7.7%, the State Statistics Service has said.

,

MACRO MONTHLY SUMMARY, MAIN STATISTICS OF UKRAINE IN MARCH 2020

Ukraine’s GDP in January 2020 decreased 0.5%, the Ministry of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture has said based on information from the State Statistics Service.
The international rating agency Standard&Poors has affirmed Ukraine’s long-term foreign and national currency ratings at “B” level, short-term “B” ratings and ratings on the national scale “uaA,” the outlook on them is “stable.”
The deficit of the national budget of Ukraine in 2020 could increase from 2.09% to 7% of GDP, Yulia Kovaliv, the deputy head of the President’s Office, has said.
Analysts from Bank of America (BofA) at the end of last week worsened the assessment of prospects for the Ukrainian economy in 2020 and expect a decrease in the country’s GDP by 1.1% due to the increased interruptions in its work.
The deficit of Ukraine’s national budget in January-February 2020 was UAH 21.5 billion, including a deficit of UAH 26.13 billion for the general fund, with the target being UAH 30 billion, according to the State Treasury Service.
According to the agency, borrowings for the specified period amounted to UAH 65 billion with the target standing at UAH 85 billion, repayment to UAH 51 billion with a plan of UAH 59 billion.
Ukraine’s GDP could fall by over 0.5% in February 2020, Deputy Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture Minister of Ukraine, Taras Kachka, who is also the Trade Representative of Ukraine, has said.
The Ministry of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture of Ukraine intends to worsen its macroeconomic forecast for 2020-2023 over the weakening of the pace of growth of the Ukrainian economy compared with the document approved in October 2019, the ministry has told Interfax-Ukraine.
The international rating agency Standard&Poors has affirmed Ukraine’s long-term foreign and national currency ratings at “B” level, short-term “B” ratings and ratings on the national scale “uaA,” the outlook on them is “stable.”
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) is counting on financing the national budget deficit that has grown due to coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak at the expense of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), central bank governor Yakiv Smolii has said.
Ukraine’s GDP will decline by 4% if quarantine lasts up to three months and by 9% if it lasts longer, Head of Dragon Capital investment company Tomas Fiala has said.
Ukraine’s economy is better prepared for the crisis and its decline will be at the level of other countries, Deputy Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Dmytro Sologub has said.
Analysts of J.P. Morgan forecast an economic fall in Ukraine at 2.6% of GDP in 2020, calling the condition for such a relatively small reduction the signing of an agreement with the IMF and expecting it in the second quarter of this year.
The macroeconomic forecast, on which the amendments to the national budget were based, implies a drop in the economy in 2020 by 4.8% of GDP, Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal has said.

,

MACRO MONTHLY SUMMARY, MAIN STATISTICS OF UKRAINE IN FEB 2020

The share of shadow operations in Ukraine in 2018 amounted to 23.8% of GDP, or UAH 846 billion, according to preliminary results of an Ernst & Young study supported by Mastercard, published by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
The receipts of the general fund of Ukraine’s national budget totaled UAH 42.6 billion in January 2020, which is UAH 13.8 billion less than the monthly target, thus it was met by 76%, the Finance Ministry has reported, referring to tentative data from the State Treasury Service of Ukraine.
Morgan Stanley has improved the forecast for the growth of the Ukrainian economy in 2020 to 3.6% of GDP from 3.2% of GDP in the October forecast, according to the bank’s report available to Interfax-Ukraine.
The potential reintegration of Donbas might add up to 1.5 percentage points (pp) to Ukraine’s GDP growth during two or three years, Bank of America (BofA) has said in its analytical review.
The growth of gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine in October-December 2019 amounted to 1.5% compared to the same period in 2018, while in the previous quarters the growth rate was higher: 4.1% in the third, 4.6% in the second and 2.5% in the first.
Growth of Ukraine’s GDP in 2019 slowed from 3.4% in 2018 to 3.3%, while the drivers of this growth have changed, the Ministry of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture of Ukraine said.
Capital investments in Ukraine in 2019 increased by 15.5%, while in 2018 their growth was 16.4%, and a year earlier some 22.1%, the State Statistics Service has said.
The surplus of Ukraine’s foreign trade in services in 2019 increased by 63.5% compared to 2018, to $8.71 billion, the State Statistics Service has said.
Inflation in Ukraine in January 2020 amounted to 0.2% compared to 1% in January 2019, which led to its annual decline to 3.2% from 4.1%, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) is creating a contact group of the monetary and foreign exchange markets for exchange of information and opinions among their participants regarding the real state of these markets and their development.
The total state debt of Ukraine in January 2020, due to the weakening of the hryvnia exchange rate by 5.2%, in U.S. dollar terms decreased by 1.1%, or by $940 million, to $83.43 billion, the Finance Ministry has said.
Industrial production in Ukraine in January 2020 decreased by 5.1% compared to January 2019, while in January last year a decrease of 3.3% was recorded compared to the same month of the previous year, the State Statistics Service has said.
Ukraine since the beginning of the marketing year 2019/2020 (MY, July-June) and as of February 24, 2020 had exported 39.48 million tonnes of grain and legumes, which is 7.65 million tonnes more than on the same date of last MY.
Transport enterprises of Ukraine reduced cargo transportation by 12.3% in January 2020 compared to January 2019, to 44 million tonnes, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The volume of construction work in Ukraine in January-2020 increased by 3.6% compared with January 2019 and amounted to UAH 7.4 billion, in December 2019 compared to December a year earlier by 6.8%.
Ukraine has increased exports of IT services in 2019 by 30.2%, to $4.17 billion, according to a posting on the website of the IT Ukraine association, referring to data of Ukraine’s balance of payment.
Ukraine’s retail trade turnover in January 2020 in comparable prices increased by 12.1% compared with January 2019, the State Statistics Service has reported.

, ,