Business news from Ukraine

MACRO MONTHLY SUMMARY, MAIN STATISTICS OF UKRAINE IN MARCH-APRIL, 2019

Volodymyr Zelensky has won 73.22% of the vote and Petro Poroshenko has received 24.45% of the vote, Ukraine’s Central Election Commission (CEC) said, after counting 100% of the ballot papers cast in the April 21 second round of the presidential election.
Ukrainians expect from a new president in the first 100 days of his activity a price lowering in utility tariffs, the submission to parliament of bills on lifting immunity from deputies, judges and the president, as well as the start or acceleration of investigations into the most resonant corruption crimes.
The Ministry of Economic Development and Trade has worsened the forecast for the growth of Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) in 2019 to 2.8% from 3%. The World Bank has worsened the forecast for the growth of Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2019 to 2.7% from 2.9%, according to the April review of the World Bank “Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, Spring 2019: Financial Inclusion.”
The growth of Ukraine’s real GDP in 2019 will slow down to 2.5%, but as the level of political uncertainty decreases by 2020, economic growth will resume to 3%, according to the macroeconomic forecast of HSBC.
Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2019 will slow down from 3.3% last year to 2.7% this year and 2.6% next year with the hryvnia exchange rate weakening to UAH 30.5 per $1 by the end of 2019 and UAH 31.5/$1 by the end of 2020, Morgan Stanley bank predicts.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) uses the average annual forex rate set at UAH 28.681 per U.S. dollar for 2019 and UAH 29.958 per U.S. dollar for 2020 when converting GDP in hryvnias to U.S. dollars in its updated April 2019 World Economic Outlook, which is almost the same as in the previous outlook issued last October.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) plans in 2019 to increase the volume of investment in the Ukrainian economy to $1 billion, head of the Ukrainian office of the EBRD Marina Petrov has stated.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January and February 2019 grew by 4.5% compared with January and February 2018, to $760 million, the State Statistics Service said.
Inflation in Ukraine in March 2019 was 0.9% compared to 0.5% in February and 1% in January, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine has reported.
The deficit of the national budget of Ukraine in January-March 2019 amounted to UAH 26.166 billion, in particular the general fund deficit was UAH 39.272 billion with the target being UAH 43.54 billion, according to data released by the State Treasury Service.
The deficit of the national budget of Ukraine in the first quarter of 2019 was UAH 25.3 billion with the approved annual figure of UAH 90 billion, such preliminary data of the State Treasury Service were voiced by the Ministry of Finance.
The aggregate state (direct) and state-guaranteed debt of Ukraine in March 2019 increased by 0.7%, or by $0.54 billion compared with February 2019, to $78.78 billion, according to the website of the Ministry of Finance.
Ukraine’s state (direct) debt in January-March 2019 fell by 0.05% or UAH 0.9 billion, to UAH 1.859 trillion, the Finance Ministry of Ukraine has reported on its Facebook page.
Industrial prices in Ukraine in March decreased by 1% after rising by 1% in February and January, the State Statistics Service has said.
Industrial production in Ukraine in March 2019 increased by 2.1% compared with March 2018, which is better than the figures in January and February, when a decline was recorded, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The transport companies of Ukraine in January-March 2019 reduced passenger traffic by 6% compared with January-March 2018, to 1.061 billion people, the State Statistics Service has reported. Transport enterprises of Ukraine in January-March 2019 increased cargo transportation by 8.9% compared to January-March 2018, to 163.3 million tonnes.
The volume of construction work performed in Ukraine in March 2019 increased by 29.7% compared with March 2018, while the indicator in February 2019 compared with February 2018 grew by 19.4%, according to statistics.
Retail trade turnover in Ukraine in comparable prices in January-March 2019 increased by 7.4% compared to January-March 2018, to UAH 235.804 billion the State Statistics Service has reported.

MAIN STATISTICS OF UKRAINE IN FEB, 2019

The real gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine in 2018 grew by 3.3% after raising by 2.5% in 2017 and by 2.4% in 2016, the State Statistics Service has stated.
Real wages in Ukraine in February 2019 compared with February 2018 increased by 10.7%, while compared with January 2019 it decreased by 1.7%, the State Statistics Service has reported.
Total wage arrears in Ukraine in January 2019 decreased by 1.2%, and as of February 1, 2019 amounted to UAH 2.614 billion, the State Statistics Service has reported.
Exports of goods from Ukraine in January 2019 from January 2018 grew by 9.2%, to $4.066 billion, while imports increased by a mere 0.7%, to $4.045 billion, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The annual inflation rate in Ukraine in February is in line with the forecast of the central bank, according to the website of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
Inflation in Ukraine in February 2019 was 0.5% compared with 1% in January and 0.8% in December last year, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine has reported.
Industrial prices in Ukraine in February 2019 increased by 1%, as a month earlier, after decreasing in December 2018 by 0.4% and growing in November 2018 by 1.7%, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The deficit of the national budget of Ukraine in January-February 2019 amounted to UAH 13.7 billion, in particular the general fund deficit was UAH 28.65 billion with the target being UAH 28.32 billion, according to the State Treasury Service.
The revenues of the national budget of Ukraine in February 2019 amounted to UAH 70.2 billion, which is 8.3% more than the target and 24.8% more than in February 2018, in particular UAH 56.6 billion was sent to the general fund, or 2.1% less than the target and 12.2% more year-on-year, according to data released by the State Treasury Service.
Revenue of Ukrainian banks, not taking into account insolvent ones, in January and February 2019, totaled UAH 39.279 billion, which is 40.4% more than a year ago, according to a posting on the website of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
The total public (direct) and state-guaranteed debt of Ukraine in February 2019 decreased by 0.02% compared with January 2019, to $78.24 billion, the Ministry of Finance has reported. Ukraine’s payments on gross external debt in 2019 will be $15.7 billion, according to data on the website of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
Industrial production in Ukraine in February 2019 decreased by 1.8% compared with February 2018, which is better than the figure in January, when the decline was 3.3%, the State Statistics Service has reported.
Capital investment in agriculture in 2018 totaled UAH 90 billion, including UAH 25 billion invested in processing, Ukrainian Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman has said.
Transport enterprises of Ukraine in January and February 2019 increased cargo transportation by 5.9% compared to January and February 2018, to 103.1 million tonnes. The transport companies of Ukraine in January and February 2019 reduced passenger traffic by 6% compared with January and February 2018, to 685.4 million people.
The volume of construction work carried out in Ukraine in February 2019 increased by 19.4% compared with February 2018, while in January 2019 from January 2018 this figure increased by 6.2%.
Retail trade turnover in Ukraine in comparable prices in January and February 2019 increased by 6.8% compared to January and February 2018, to UAH 150.913 billion, the State Statistics Service has reported.

SAVINGS OF UKRAINIANS UAH 16.8 BLN UP – STATISTICS

The income of the population of Ukraine in 2018 amounted to UAH 3.22 trillion, expenses to UAH 3.202 trillion, while the savings of Ukrainians rose by UAH 16.8 billion, the State Statistics Service has reported.
According to its data, disposable income, which can be used to purchase goods and pay for services, over this period grew by 21.9%.
Disposable income per capita in the third quarter amounted to UAH 57,909, which is 22.5% more than in 2018.

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MACRO MONTHLY SUMMARY, MAIN STATISTICS OF UKRAINE IN JAN, 2019

Capital investments in Ukraine for 2018 increased by 16.4%, while for 2017 by 22.1%, the State Statistics Service has said.
Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2018 increased by 3.4% compared to the same period of 2017, while it grew by 2.8% in the third quarter, by 3.8% in the second quarter, and by 3.1% in the first quarter, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine said.
The Economic Development and Trade Ministry of Ukraine expects that the country’s economy will grow by 3.8% in 2020 and by 4.1% in 2021.
Ukraine’s Economic Development and Trade Ministry has promptly assessed growth of the country’s GDP at 3.2%, Ukrainian Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman said at a government meeting.
The indicator of economic sentiment in Ukraine calculated by the State Statistics Service in the first quarter of 2019 was 106.3% compared with 104% and 106.1% respectively in the fourth and first quarters of 2018.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in 2018 was estimated at $5.83 billion, which was 2.3 times more than the indicator in 2017, the State Statistics Service reported.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in 2018 grew by 54.5% compared with 2017, to $9.801 billion (to $6.343 billion in 2017), the State Statistics Service said.
The surplus of Ukraine’s foreign trade in services in 2018 increased by 15.5% from 2017, to $6.049 billion ($5.238 billion in 2017), the State Statistics Service reported.
Ukraine in 2018 expanded geography of export of goods and increased the number of companies, which were authorized to export food of animal origin, according to a report of the State Service for Food Safety and Consumers’ Protection.
Inflation in Ukraine in January 2019 was 1% against 0.8% in December 2018, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine said.
Industrial producers’ prices in Ukraine in January 2019 increased by 1% after a decline in December 2018 by 0.4% and an increase in November by 1.7%, in October by 0.3% and September by 1.2%, the State Statistics Service.
The deficit of the national budget of Ukraine in January 2019 amounted to UAH 11.93 billion, in particular the general fund deficit was UAH 18.2 billion with the target being UAH 15.82 billion, according to the State Treasury Service.
Revenue of Ukraine’s national budget in January 2019 totaled UAH 54.49 billion, which is UAH 6.56 billion or 10.8% less than the target for the period, and UAH 700 million or 1.3% less than in January 2018.
The assets of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) in 2018 increased by 2.4% and amounted to UAH 1.051 trillion, the corresponding financial indicators were published by the central bank in the Holos Ukrainy newspaper.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has reviewed downwards the assessment of growth of real GDP of the country in 2018 to 3.3% from 3.4%, according to a posting on the website of the central bank.
The aggregate state (direct) and state-guaranteed debt of Ukraine in January 2019 decreased by 0.09%, or $ 70million, compared to December 2018, to $78.25 billion, the Ministry of Finance has reported.
The ratio of the state debt and the gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine in 2018 fell to 60.9% from 68% in 2017, according to a presentation of the Economic Development and Trade Ministry of Ukraine.
Ukraine’s international reserves did not change in January 2019 and remained at the level of $20.82 billion in the equivalent, according to the website of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
The surplus of Ukraine’s balance of payment in 2018 grew by 12.1% compared with the previous year, to $2.88 billion, according to preliminary data published by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
Industrial production in Ukraine in January 2019 decreased by 3.3% compared with January 2018, whereas in January last year its growth by 4.3% was recorded, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The volume of sold industrial products (goods, services) in 2018 stood at UAH 2.507 trillion, which is 16.5% more than in 2017, in particular the volume sold abroad was worth UAH 681.927 billion, the State Statistics Service has reported.
Transport enterprises of Ukraine in January 2019 increased cargo transportation by 4.8% compared to January 2018, to 51.5 million tonnes. The transport companies of Ukraine in January 2019 reduced passenger traffic by 6.5% compared with January 2018, to 342.9 million people, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The volume of construction work performed in Ukraine in January 2019 increased by 6.2% compared with January 2018, while the indicator in December 2018 compared with December 2017 fell by 8.8%, according to statistics.
Retail trade turnover in Ukraine in comparable prices in January 2019 increased by 6.3% compared to January 2018, the State Statistics Service has reported.

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MACRO MONTHLY SUMMARY, MAIN STATISTICS OF UKRAINE IN DECEMBER, 2018

The presidential election campaign started in Ukraine on Monday, December 31, and will last for 90 days.
The World Bank has reviewed downwards its forecast for Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2019 from 3.5% to 2.9%, according to the Global Economic Prospects (GEP). Ukrainian businesses predict further economic growth and the creation of new jobs in 2019 for the second year in a row, according to a survey of company heads conducted by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) in the fourth quarter of 2018.
The minimum wage in Ukraine in 2019 is UAH 4,173. Real wages in Ukraine in December 2018 increased by 9.7% compared to December 2017 and by 14.5% compared to November 2018, the State Statistics Service said.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-November 2018 increased by 66.6% compared with January-November 2017 and amounted to $8.866 billion, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The growth of consumer prices in Ukraine in 2018 slowed to 9.8% compared with 13.7% in 2017, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine has reported.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) intends to revise the forecast for inflation in the current year upwards.
The revenues of the national budget of Ukraine in 2018 amounted to UAH 928.139 billion and exceeded the target by 1.1%, Finance Minister Oksana Markarova has said, commenting on the information on the website of the State Treasury Service that state budget revenues were 1.3.% or UAH 11.77 billion less than the planned figure.
The revenues of the national budget of Ukraine in 2018 amounted to UAH 928.14 billion, which is UAH 11.77 billion, or 1.3% less than the target, the State Treasury Service of Ukraine reported on its website. Tax payments to local budgets in 2018 grew by 21.6% compared with 2017, to UAH 230.5 billion, the State Fiscal Service of Ukraine has reported.
The surplus of the balance of payment in November 2018 was $1.321 billion, according to a posting on the website of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
Industrial production in Ukraine in 2018 increased by 1.1% compared with 2017, while in December 2018 from December 2017 the decline was 3.5%, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The volume of sold industrial products (goods, services) in January-November 2018 stood at UAH 2.262 trillion, which is 17.4% more than in January-November 2017, in particular the volume sold abroad was worth UAH 88.841 billion, the State Statistics Service has reported.
Industrial prices in Ukraine in December 2018 decreased by 0.4% after growth in November by 1.7%, in October by 0.3%, in September by 1.2%, in August by 1.3%, the State Statistics Service has said.
Ukrainian agricultural exports to the EU country in January-November 2018 grew by 6.9% year-over-year, to $5.6 billion.
The transport companies of Ukraine in January-December 2018 reduced passenger traffic by 3.5% compared with 2017, to 4.5 billion people, the State Statistics Service has reported. The transport enterprises of Ukraine in January-December 2018 reduced carriage of goods by 2% from January-December 2017, to 624.1 million tonnes.
The volume of construction work performed in Ukraine in 2018 increased by 4.4% compared with 2017, while growth in 2017 compared with 2016 was 26.3%, according to reviewed statistics.
Retail trade turnover in Ukraine in 2018 in comparable prices increased by 6.1% compared with 2017, the State Statistics Service has reported.

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MACRO MONTHLY SUMMARY, MAIN STATISTICS OF UKRAINE IN NOVEMBER, 2018

Growth of Ukraine’s GDP in July-September 2018 was 2.8% year-over-year, which equals to the preliminary assessment by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine published in the middle of November.
Capital investment in the agricultural and industrial sector in January-September 2018 totaled over UAH 60 billion, including UAH 45 billion in agriculture, which is 38% more than a year ago, Deputy Agricultural Policy and Food Minister of Ukraine Olha Kovaleva said at a press conference.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has once again revised its expectations for Ukraine’s GDP growth for the current year, downgrading the forecast to 3.3% from 3.5%.
President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko said that he had signed the law on the state budget of Ukraine for 2019.
The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine has adopted as a basis and in general law No. 9369 with technical and legal amendments to the national budget for 2018.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-October 2018 increased by 66.6% compared with January-October 2017 and amounted to $7.95 billion, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The rise in consumer prices in Ukraine in November 2018 slowed down to 1.4% from 1.7% in October and 1.9% in November and since the beginning of the year has reached 8.9%, the State Statistics Service has reported.
Industrial prices in Ukraine in November 2018 increased by 1.7% after a 0.3% growth in October, 1.2% in September, and 1.3% in August, the State Statistics Service has said.
The national budget of Ukraine for January-November 2018 saw a deficit of UAH 183.6 million, while the ceiling level approved by the law on the national budget is UAH 80.6 billion, the Ministry of Finance has reported.
Ukraine has received the first tranche under the new Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the amount of SDR 1 billion (around $1.4 billion), which boosted the country’s forex reserves to $20.1 billion as of December 21, 2018.
The deficit of the national budget of Ukraine in January-October 2018 was UAH 6.17 billion with the ceiling approved in the law on the national budget being UAH 80.6 billion, while in October its surplus was UAH 1.14 billion, the State Treasury Service has said.
Money supply in Ukraine in November 2018 fell by 1.3%, to UAH 1.229 trillion, according to the respective preliminary data of monetary statistics published on the website of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
Ukraine’s gross external debt in the third quarter of 2018 grew by $985 million, or 0.87%, to $114.742 billion, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has said on its website.
Industrial production in Ukraine in November 2018 compared with November 2017 decreased by 0.9% after rising in October by 1.4%, the State Statistics Service has reported.
Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada has passed a bill amending the national budget for 2018, which cuts the financing of three programs to support agriculture by UAH 2.079 billion, to UAH 4.232 billion.
Customs offices as of December 20, 2018 cleared 6,500 cars with foreign license plates imported into Ukraine since 2015 until the day when the new customs clearance rules took effect in the country, the State Fiscal Service reported on its website.
Retail trade turnover in Ukraine in January-November 2018 in comparable prices increased by 6.2% compared with January-November 2017, the State Statistics Service has reported.

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