Business news from Ukraine

MACRO MONTHLY SUMMARY, MAIN STATISTICS OF UKRAINE IN NOVEMBER, 2018

Growth of Ukraine’s GDP in July-September 2018 was 2.8% year-over-year, which equals to the preliminary assessment by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine published in the middle of November.
Capital investment in the agricultural and industrial sector in January-September 2018 totaled over UAH 60 billion, including UAH 45 billion in agriculture, which is 38% more than a year ago, Deputy Agricultural Policy and Food Minister of Ukraine Olha Kovaleva said at a press conference.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has once again revised its expectations for Ukraine’s GDP growth for the current year, downgrading the forecast to 3.3% from 3.5%.
President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko said that he had signed the law on the state budget of Ukraine for 2019.
The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine has adopted as a basis and in general law No. 9369 with technical and legal amendments to the national budget for 2018.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-October 2018 increased by 66.6% compared with January-October 2017 and amounted to $7.95 billion, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The rise in consumer prices in Ukraine in November 2018 slowed down to 1.4% from 1.7% in October and 1.9% in November and since the beginning of the year has reached 8.9%, the State Statistics Service has reported.
Industrial prices in Ukraine in November 2018 increased by 1.7% after a 0.3% growth in October, 1.2% in September, and 1.3% in August, the State Statistics Service has said.
The national budget of Ukraine for January-November 2018 saw a deficit of UAH 183.6 million, while the ceiling level approved by the law on the national budget is UAH 80.6 billion, the Ministry of Finance has reported.
Ukraine has received the first tranche under the new Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the amount of SDR 1 billion (around $1.4 billion), which boosted the country’s forex reserves to $20.1 billion as of December 21, 2018.
The deficit of the national budget of Ukraine in January-October 2018 was UAH 6.17 billion with the ceiling approved in the law on the national budget being UAH 80.6 billion, while in October its surplus was UAH 1.14 billion, the State Treasury Service has said.
Money supply in Ukraine in November 2018 fell by 1.3%, to UAH 1.229 trillion, according to the respective preliminary data of monetary statistics published on the website of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
Ukraine’s gross external debt in the third quarter of 2018 grew by $985 million, or 0.87%, to $114.742 billion, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has said on its website.
Industrial production in Ukraine in November 2018 compared with November 2017 decreased by 0.9% after rising in October by 1.4%, the State Statistics Service has reported.
Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada has passed a bill amending the national budget for 2018, which cuts the financing of three programs to support agriculture by UAH 2.079 billion, to UAH 4.232 billion.
Customs offices as of December 20, 2018 cleared 6,500 cars with foreign license plates imported into Ukraine since 2015 until the day when the new customs clearance rules took effect in the country, the State Fiscal Service reported on its website.
Retail trade turnover in Ukraine in January-November 2018 in comparable prices increased by 6.2% compared with January-November 2017, the State Statistics Service has reported.

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MACRO MONTHLY SUMMARY – MAIN STATISTICS OF UKRAINE IN OCTOBER, 2018

The pace of the Ukrainian economy lags behind the potential pace in the conditions of faster growth of GDP of European developing countries, Resident Representative of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Ukraine Goesta Ljungman has said.
Capital investments in Ukraine in January-September 2018 increased by 19.9%, while in January-September 2017 by 20.7%, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) predicts a slowdown in economic growth in Ukraine in the third quarter of 2018 compared to the same period of 2017 to 3.1% from 3.8% in the second quarter.
The growth of Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2018 was 2.8% compared to the same period of 2017, while in the second quarter it was 3.8%, in the first quarter some 3.1%, such assessment has been posted by the State Statistics Service.
Real wages in Ukraine in October 2018 compared with October 2017 increased by 14.2%, compared with September 2018 it increased by 0.2%, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-September 2018 increased by 61.4% compared to January-September 2017, to $6.47 billion, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine said.
The deficit of Ukraine’s balance of foreign trade in January-September 2018 totaled $3.45 billion, growing 3.1-fold year-over-year, the State Statistics Service reported.
The surplus of Ukraine’s foreign trade in services in January-September 2018 increased by 18.1% compared to the same period in 2017, to $4.632 billion (in January-September 2017 some $3.921 billion), the State Statistics Service has reported.
Consumer prices in Ukraine, after rising by 1.9% in September, rose by another 1.7% in October, and since the beginning of the year their growth reached 7.4%, the State Statistics Service has reported.
Industrial prices in Ukraine in October 2018 increased by 0.3% after rising by 1.2% in September, 1.3% in August and 1.6% in July, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The deficit of the national budget of Ukraine in January-October 2018 was UAH 7.17 billion with the ceiling approved in the law on the national budget being UAH 80.6 billion, while in October its surplus was UAH 1.14 billion, the State Treasury Service has said.
The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine has submitted the reviewed draft national budget for 2019 to the Verkhovna Rada (bill No. 9000), boosting its revenue by 1.8%, to UAH 1.019 trillion and expenses – by 1.6%, to UAH 1.112 trillion, according to the document posted on the parliaments’ website.
The amount of the first tranche under the new Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) could be $1.5-1.9 billion, First Deputy Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Kateryna Rozhkova has said.
Money supply in Ukraine in October 2018 decreased by 0.4% and amounted to UAH 1.245 trillion, the corresponding preliminary data of monetary statistics have been posted on the website of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
The aggregate state (direct) and state-guaranteed debt of Ukraine in October 2018 decreased by 0.46%, or by $0.34 billion, to $74.32 billion, according to the website of the Ministry of Finance.
The international reserves of Ukraine in October 2018 increased by 0.6% and as of November 1 amounted to $16.737 billion, the corresponding preliminary data have been posted on the website of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
Ending stocks on the single account of the State Treasury Service of Ukraine as of early November 2018 totaled UAH 14.64 billion (a 33% decline), the State Treasury Service reported.
Industrial production in Ukraine in October 2018 resumed growth, increasing by 1.4% compared to October 2017, after two months of the decline being 1.3% in September and 0.5% in August 2017, the State Statistics Service has said.

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MACRO MONTHLY SUMMARY – MAIN STATISTICS OF UKRAINE IN SEPT, 2018

The World Bank has lowered its forecast for growth of Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2018 to 3.3% from 3.5%, Lead Economist and Program Leader covering Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine at the World Bank Faruk Khan said.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the October 2018 World Economic Outlook (WEO) lowered its estimate for the growth in Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2019 to 2.7% from 3.3% projected in April.
The Board of Directors of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is ready to approve a new program to support the economic policy of Ukraine, a Stand-By Arrangement, only after the final review of heating tariffs in accordance with the increase in gas prices.
Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada has approved a resolution on the conclusions and proposals to a bill on the national budget for 2019 drawn up by the parliamentary budget committee, which means the adoption of the draft national budget at first reading.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-August 2018 increased by 45.7% compared to January-July 2017, to $5.004 billion (it was $3.434 billion in January-August 2017.
Inflationary pressure remains high, despite the weakening of the food inflation, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has said, commenting on the September inflation figure on its website.
Consumer prices in Ukraine after a decline by 0.7% in July and stability in August grew by 1.9% in September, and since early 2018 their growth was 5.6%, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The surplus of the national budget of Ukraine in January-September 2018 amounted to UAH 7.329 billion.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has reviewed upwards growth of consumer prices in 2018 to 10.1% from 8.9%, taking into account the fact that large inflation pressure remains and the regulated prices are increased, the central bank has reported on its website.
The World Bank has improved its forecast for Ukraine’s state and guaranteed debt in 2018 to 67.2% from 75.1% of GDP, in 2019 – from 73.5% to 64.8% of GDP, and in 2020 – from 68.4% to 62.4% of GDP, the World Bank said in its latest Ukraine Economic Update.
The aggregate state (direct) and state-guaranteed debt of Ukraine in September 2018 decreased by 0.25%, or by $0.19 billion, to $74.66 billion, according to the website of the Ministry of Finance.
The international reserves of Ukraine in September 2018 decreased by 3.5% and as of October 1 amounted to $16.638 billion, the corresponding preliminary data have been posted on the website of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
The balance of payment in August has a surplus of $27 million, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has reported.
Industrial production in Ukraine in September 2018 decreased by 1.3% compared to September 2017, while in August it fell by 0.5% compared to August 2017, in July the growth was 2.9%, in June this figure was 2.2%, and in May some 2.5%, the State Statistics Service has said.
Retail trade turnover in Ukraine in January-September 2018 increased by 5.5% in comparable prices in comparison with January-September 2017, the State Statistics Service has said.
Ukrainians in September were optimistic about the country’s economic development over the next year – the respective index grew by 10 points compared with the August figure, to 62.6, and consumer confidence improved by 2.3 points.

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MACRO MONTHLY SUMMARY – MAIN STATISTICS OF UKRAINE IN AUGUST 2018

Ukraine’s GDP in 2018 is expected to grow by 3.1% amid 9.5% inflation (Dec over Dec) and the growth is expected to slightly slow in 2019 to 3.0% amid 7.4% inflation, according to an updated consensus forecast released by Ukraine’s Ministry of Economic Development and Trade.
The growth of Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP) in April-June 2018 was 3.8% compared to the same period in 2017, whereas according to the preliminary assessment of the State Statistics Service, published in mid-August, this indicator was 3.6%.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-July 2018 increased by 42.7% compared to January-July 2017, to $4.064 billion (it was $2.848 billion in January-July 2017), the State Statistics Service of Ukraine said.
Revenue of Ukraine’s national budget in August 2018 amounted to UAH 93.96 billion, which was UAH 2.79 billion, or 2.9% less than the planned figure, the State Treasury Service of Ukraine reported.
Income from profit tax to the general fund of the national budget in January-August 2018 exceeded the planned figure by 20.2% and amounted to UAH 72.5 billion, the State Fiscal Service has reported.
Money supply in Ukraine in August 2018 grew by 0.3%, to UAH 1.233 trillion, such preliminary data of monetary statistics are posted on the website of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
The gross foreign debt of Ukraine as of the beginning of July 2018 was $113.751 billion, which is 1.47% or $1.7 billion less than at the beginning of the year, according to the website of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
Ukraine’s gross external debt in the second quarter of 2018 declined by $1.4 billion, or 1.2%, to $113.8 billion, and stands at about 93.6% of GDP, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) said, based on its preliminary estimates of GDP.
The international reserves of Ukraine in August 2018 decreased by 2.9% and amounted to the equivalent of $17.232 billion by September 1.
Industrial production in Ukraine in August 2018 decreased by 0.5% compared to August 2017, while in July the growth was 2.9% compared to July 2017, in June this figure was 2.2%, in May some 2.5%, in April some 3%, the State Statistics Service has said.
Retail trade turnover in Ukraine in January-August 2018 increased by 5.4% in comparable prices in comparison with January-August 2017, the State Statistics Service has said.
Consumer prices in Ukraine, after the decrease by 0.7% in July, in August remained unchanged, while since the beginning of the year their growth was 3.6%, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine has reported.

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MACRO MONTHLY SUMMARY – MAIN STATISTICS OF UKRAINE IN JULY 2018

The growth of Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP) in April-June 2018 was 3.6% compared to the same period in 2017, while the growth rate in the first quarter was lower, namely 3.1%, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine said.
The indicator of economic sentiment in Ukraine, calculated by the State Statistics Service, in the third quarter of 2018 was 109.6% compared with 104% and 108.8% respectively in the second and first quarters of this year.
The negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-June 2018 increased by 33% compared to January-June 2017, to $2.658 billion (it was $2 billion in January-June 2017), the State Statistics Service of Ukraine said.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods and services in the first half of 2018 was $653 million, which was 13.4 times higher than in the first half of 2017, the State Statistics Service said.
The surplus of Ukraine’s foreign trade in services in the first half of 2018 increased by 6% compared to the same period in 2017, to $2.826 billion (in the first half of 2017 some $2.658 billion), the State Statistics Service has said.
Consumer prices in Ukraine fell by 0.7% in July, while since the beginning of the year their growth was 3.6%, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine has reported.
Revenue of Ukraine’s national budget in July 2018 totaled UAH 64.46 billion, which is 0.1% more than the target, according to a Wednesday posting on the website of the State Treasury Service of Ukraine.
Money supply in Ukraine in July 2018 increased by 1.3%, to UAH 1.229 trillion, such preliminary data of monetary statistics are posted on the website of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
The government of Ukraine has revised the medium-term strategy of public debt management by setting more ambitious goals to reduce direct state debt in relation to GDP, in particular, to 60% of GDP by the end of the current year, instead of the previously planned 62% of GDP.
Industrial production in Ukraine in July 2018 increased by 2.9% compared to July 2017, while in June this figure stood at 2.2%, in May at 2.5%, in April at 3%, the State Statistics Service has said.
The transport enterprises of Ukraine in January-July 2018 reduced transportation of goods by 1% compared to January-July 2017, to 356.3 million tonnes.
Transport companies in Ukraine in January-July 2018 decreased passenger transportation by 1.9% compared to January-July 2017, to 2.636 billion people.
The volume of completed construction works in Ukraine in July 2018 increased by 9.7% compared to July 2017, whereas growth in June 2018 from June 2017 was 2.2%.
Ukraine’s retail trade in January-July 2018 grew by 6% in comparable prices from January-July 2017, to UAH 505.763 billion, the State Statistics Service reported.

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MACRO MONTHLY SUMMARY – MAIN STATISTICS OF UKRAINE IN MAY 2018

Growth of Ukraine’s GDP in January-March 2018 was 3.1% year-over-year.
The European Parliament (EP) on June 13 voted in favor of the third Macro-Financial Assistance (MFA) programme for Ukraine foreseeing the provision of EUR 1 billion to Ukraine.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade with goods in January-April 2018 grew 1.5-fold year-over-year, reaching $1.423 billion ($968.6 million in January-April 2017), the State Statistics Service reported.
Industrial prices in Ukraine in May 2018 increased by 0.8% after a zero growth in April, 0.3% in March, 1.2% in February and 4.4% in January.
Consumer prices in Ukraine in May 2018 remained unchanged from the previous month, while inflation was 0.8% in April, 1.1% in March, 0.9% in February and 1.5% in January.
Revenue of Ukraine’s national budget in May 2018 totaled UAH 96.85 billion, which is UAH 2.99 billion or 3.2% more than the target, the State Treasury Service of Ukraine reported on its website.
Largest taxpayers increased payment of taxes to the national budget by 20% or by UAH 21.7 billion in January-May 2018 year-over-year, to UAH 132.2 billion, the Office of Large Taxpayers has said on its website.
Money supply in Ukraine in May 2018 increased by 0.5%, to UAH 1.198 trillion, the relevant preliminary data of monetary statistics have been posted on the website of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
Ukraine’s gross foreign debt amounted to $116.29 billion as of early April 2018, which was 0.25% or $288 million less than at the beginning of the year, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reported on its website.
Cargo turnover of carriers in Ukraine fell by 3%, to 135.1 billion tonne/kilometers in January-May 2018.
Transport companies in Ukraine in January-May 2018 decreased passenger transportation by 1.5% compared to January-May 2017, to 1.909 billion people.
Freight handling at Ukrainian seaports in January-May 2018 totaled 54.3 million tonnes, which is 2.13% less than a year ago, according to data from the Ukrainian Sea Port Authority.
The consumer confidence index of Ukrainians after a two-month positive trend in May this year improved by another 1.5 points, to 62.9 compared with the April indicator, while in annual terms it grew by 4.9 points.
Ukraine’s retail trade turnover in January-May 2018 increased by 6.1% in comparable prices in comparison with January-May 2017.

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