The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) has lowered its estimate of the potential harvest of grains and oilseeds in 2024 by 2.8 million tons compared to the previous forecast, to 71.8 million tons, the association’s press service reports.
“The current forecast is based on the average weather conditions over the past five years, so the improvement or deterioration of these conditions in spring and summer make adjustments. Another decrease in the harvest forecast for the new season was caused by the hot and dry weather in Ukraine in July this year, which negatively affected the potential yield of late grains and oilseeds,” the report says.
According to experts, under such conditions, exports in the new season 2024/2025 will amount to 41 mln tons, which is 2.5 mln tons less than the previous forecast. Last season, which ended on June 30, according to the UGA, the export of grains and oilseeds amounted to 57.5 mln tons of grains and oilseeds. Thus, the drop in exports compared to the previous season could be more than 16 million tons.
The UGA estimates the wheat harvest in 2024 at 19.8 mln tons (22 mln tons in 2023). Potential exports of wheat in 2024/2025 MY may amount to about 13 mln tonnes, taking into account that at the beginning of the season carry-over stocks amounted to almost 1 mln tonnes.
The UGA pointed out that the consumption of wheat in Ukraine has decreased due to the war and significant outflow of population abroad. According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine, wheat consumption decreased from 8 mln tons to just over 6 mln tons.
According to the UGA, the barley harvest in 2024 may reach 4.95 mln tonnes, which is 350 thsd tonnes more than the previous estimate (5.8 mln tonnes in 2023), and potential exports in 2024/2025 MY are expected to reach about 2 mln tonnes (last year barley exports amounted to almost 2.5 mln tonnes).
Expectations for the corn harvest in the new season are deteriorating due to the prolonged dry period in a number of regions. The UGA estimates the corn harvest at 23.4 million tons, which is 2.1 million tons lower than the previous estimate and 6.2 million tons less than last year’s harvest of 29.6 million tons. At the same time, potential exports may amount to about 18.5 mln tons (last season, exports amounted to 29.3 mln tons, in particular due to carry-over corn stocks).
The sunflower harvest in 2024 can be expected at 12.8 mln tons, which is 0.9 mln tons lower than the previous estimate (2023 – 14.2 mln tons). Potential exports could reach up to 250 thsd tonnes, while sunflower crushing for vegetable oil could reach 12.5 mln tonnes. Last season, the processing amounted to 13.5 mln tons.
In 2024, the UGA expects the rapeseed harvest to reach 4.3 mln tonnes (4.5 mln tonnes in 2023), while the exports in 2024/2025 MY will be 3.4 mln tonnes (3.7 mln tonnes in the current season).
As for soybeans, despite the fact that farmers have increased the area under the crop, unfavorable weather conditions will not allow to get a bigger harvest due to lower yields, experts believe. According to their estimates, the soybean harvest can be expected in 2024 at 4.8 mln tonnes, which is 0.7 mln tonnes less than the previous estimate (4.9 mln tonnes in 2023). Potential exports in 2024/2025 MY may reach 3.5 mln tonnes (last season – almost 3 mln tonnes).
As reported, in 2023, the UGA estimated the harvest at 82.8 mln tons of grains and oilseeds.
