Ukraine’s potato and vegetable production could decline by a combined 4.69 million tonnes in 2026 compared with the previous year. The sharpest decrease is expected in potato production, where the harvest could fall by more than 21%, the Experts Club information and analytical center reports, citing the National Bank of Ukraine’s updated forecast.
According to the NBU’s October 2026 Inflation Report, published on November 6, potato production is projected at 12.89 million tonnes, vegetable production at 7 million tonnes, and fruit and berry production at 1.77 million tonnes.
The potato harvest forecast was downgraded from 16.40 million to 12.89 million tonnes, a reduction of 21.4%. Compared with 2025, when 16.38 million tonnes were harvested, the expected decline amounts to 3.49 million tonnes. Relative to the pre-war year of 2021, when production reached 21.36 million tonnes, the decrease could approach 40%.
The regulator estimates that Ukraine’s vegetable harvest will reach 7 million tonnes in 2026, compared with 8.2 million tonnes in 2025. Production could therefore decline by 1.2 million tonnes, or 14.6%. Compared with the pre-war level of 2021, the reduction will be almost 30%.
Meanwhile, fruit and berry production is projected at 1.77 million tonnes, unchanged from the previous year but approximately 21% below the 2021 level.
Experts Club analysts emphasize that a decline in total harvest volumes does not necessarily imply a proportional reduction in supplies to retail chains. A significant share of potatoes is grown by households for personal consumption, while market availability depends on product quality, storage conditions, and logistics.
According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, Ukraine’s potato harvest could reach approximately 12.5 million tonnes in 2026, while direct household consumption is estimated at 2–2.5 million tonnes annually. These figures suggest there is no basis for predicting an inevitable nationwide shortage.
Experts Club founder and PhD in Economics Maksym Urakin believes that the main priorities of agricultural policy should include improving productivity, reducing post-harvest losses, and developing modern storage infrastructure.
Investment in irrigation, energy-efficient vegetable storage facilities, refrigeration capacity, food processing, and greenhouse modernization will be particularly important.
The NBU has also downgraded its forecasts for 2027. Expected potato production has been reduced to 13.48 million tonnes, vegetable production to 7.4 million tonnes, and fruit and berry production to 1.87 million tonnes.
Experts note that declining output creates risks of additional price pressure, although food prices will also depend on imports, inventories, logistics, and seasonal factors.
According to the NBU forecast, overall inflation in Ukraine could reach 12.5% by the end of 2026, slow to 7.3% in 2027, and return to the 5% target in 2028.
