The global ranking of armed populations, compiled on the basis of the Small Arms Survey, shows that the ten countries with the largest number of civilian weapons include the United States, India, China, Pakistan, Russia, Brazil, Mexico, Germany, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia. Ukraine is not on this list, but even before Russia’s full-scale invasion, the country was among the states with a significant amount of weapons in the hands of citizens. The Experts Club Analytical Center analyzed global and Ukrainian statistics.
According to the Small Arms Survey for 2017-18, there were about 4.4 million civilian weapons in Ukraine—approximately 9.9 guns per 100 inhabitants. Of these, only about 800,000 were officially registered, and about 3.6 million belonged to the illegal segment.
According to the National Police database, as of July 31, 2018, there were 892,854 registered weapons in the country. In 2021, the Ministry of Internal Affairs estimated the number of weapons legally owned by citizens at approximately 1.3 million, against the backdrop of tighter regulations and growing public interest in self-defense after 2014.
The full-scale war of 2022 dramatically changed the picture. Against the backdrop of the formation of territorial defense and volunteer units, the state massively transferred small arms to citizens; at the same time, a significant number of captured and illegal firearms ended up in the hands of the population. Estimates today vary widely: according to Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko, Ukrainians may have between 1 and 5 million weapons, while a number of think tanks put the figure at 4–5 million, of which 2–3 million may be in illegal circulation.
Research by Small Arms Survey using sociological surveys shows that up to 11% of Ukrainian households may have at least one weapon, which on a national scale gives a range of 865,000 to 1.42 million armed households. At the same time, the share of households that openly report the presence of weapons in 2023–2024 remains at 5–6%, which indicates both a high level of distrust and the sensitivity of the issue in wartime.
To bring order, Ukraine has launched a Unified Weapons Register. By July 2024, 63% of households that own weapons stated that some or all of their weapons were registered; among those who are aware of the system, 74% claim to have registered all their weapons, but about 10% continue to keep unregistered weapons.
Thus, while before the war there were approximately 1.3 million registered weapons in Ukraine and several times more illegal firearms, now, against the backdrop of full-scale hostilities, there are millions of weapons, a significant portion of which must gradually be registered or confiscated.
This makes the issue of civilian weapons control one of the key issues for post-war security, law enforcement reform, and Ukraine’s negotiations with the EU on the harmonization of weapons legislation.
Source: https://expertsclub.eu/ukrayina-na-tli-svitovogo-rynku-czyvilnoyi-zbroyi/
