The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) forecasts that the harvest of grain and oilseeds in 2025 will reach 81.4 million tons, compared to 79 million tons (+3%) a year earlier, the association’s press service reported.
“With such a harvest, exports in the current 2025/26 season could potentially reach 49 million tons (last season – 46.7 million tons). However, this is an optimistic scenario, the implementation of which depends on the resolution of serious logistical problems,” the UGA noted.
The association recalled that Ukraine is currently experiencing significant problems in grain export logistics due to constant Russian terrorist attacks on critical infrastructure: energy, railways, and seaports of Ukraine. As a result of Russian shelling of civilian infrastructure, railways and ports cannot operate at full capacity due to damage to their infrastructure, power shortages, and constant power outages.
“It is obvious that the inability to export significant volumes of the harvested crop due to logistical problems will not only have an extremely negative impact on Ukrainian agricultural producers and the price situation on the domestic market, but may also deal a severe blow to Ukraine’s economy and its balance of payments,” the UGA noted.
The UGA estimated the wheat harvest in 2025 at 22.5 million tons, compared to 22.4 million tons (+0.45%) a year ago. With this in mind, potential wheat exports in 2025/26 MY could reach 16.5 million tons, the UGA suggested.
The barley harvest in 2025, according to the association’s estimates, is 4.9 million tons, compared to 5.6 million tons (-2.5%) a year ago, and the likely export in 2025/2026 MY is forecast at around 2.3 million tons.
The UGA expects the corn harvest to reach 32 million tons, compared to 25.9 million tons (+23.6%), and experts believe that potential exports in the current season could reach 25 million tons, provided that logistics are unhindered.
The UGA forecasts the sunflower harvest in 2025 at 11.5 million tons, compared to 12.8 million tons (-10.2%) a year ago. Traditionally, almost all sunflowers will be processed in Ukraine – 11.4 million tons, while exports will reach no more than 50 thousand tons.
The rapeseed harvest in 2025 will be 3.2 million tons, compared to 3.8 million tons (-15.8%) a year ago, while exports in 2025/26 MY may reach only 2.1 million tons, with the rest being processed in Ukraine.
According to the UGA, the soybean harvest in 2025 will be about 5 million tons, compared to 6.8 million tons (-26.5%) in 2024, which is explained by a significant reduction in the area sown with this crop and poorer yields. Nevertheless, potential exports could reach 2.5 million tons in 2025/26 MY, with the rest being processed in Ukraine, as legislative restrictions make its export difficult, as is the case with rapeseed.
“As for next year’s harvest, since the acreage under winter crops is already known and taking into account the forecast for spring crops, next year’s potential harvest could amount to 84.5 million tons of grains and oilseeds, of which Ukraine could potentially export about 50 million tons of grains and oilseeds,” the UGA predicts.
The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) is an association of producers, processors, and major grain exporters, which annually export about 90% of Ukrainian grain products.
