Analysis of the logistics situation in the Middle East and worldwide by the Experts Club analytical center as of March 2, 2026 (the situation is constantly changing).
According to NOTAM monitoring data, as of March 2, the picture is as follows (in parentheses — the duration of current restrictions, which is not a guarantee of reopening): Iran, Iraq, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Syria, Israel – “total” closure at the FIR/route level, Saudi Arabia – partial closure of corridors near the border with Iraq and in the Persian Gulf area, UAE – formally not “empty sky,” but ESCAT zones have been introduced and commercial traffic is effectively severely restricted.
EU regulators directly classify the situation as high risk for civil aviation not only over Iran, but also over neighboring countries where air defense actions, interception, and spill-over risks are possible.
The key effect is the shutdown or “semi-shutdown” of major Persian Gulf hubs connecting Europe, Asia, and Africa. Reuters and other publications describe this as one of the most severe shocks to civil aviation in recent years, with thousands of cancellations and mass passenger relocations.
The largest regional carriers (hubs):
1) Emirates: has temporarily suspended all operations to/from Dubai until at least 3 p.m. UAE time on March 3.
2) Etihad: all flights to/from Abu Dhabi suspended until 14:00 UAE time on March 3.
3) Qatar Airways: operations temporarily suspended due to the closure of Qatar’s airspace (resumption – after the regulator’s decision).
Large international groups and long-haul carriers are clearing their schedules en masse, as the “hole” in the corridor forces them to either cancel flights or fly long detours (longer, more expensive, with restrictions on crew working hours).
1) Lufthansa Group: flights to a number of destinations in the region suspended until March 8, with some restrictions on Dubai until March 4, plus an announcement that the group will not use airspace (the list includes Israel, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Iran; separately – the UAE until March 4).
2) British Airways: announces the cancellation of some flights and offers free date changes for London-Abu Dhabi/Amman/Bahrain/Doha/Dubai/Tel Aviv routes for the period until March 15.
3) Air India: suspension of flights to/from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Qatar until 23:59 (India) on March 2, plus some flights to Europe.
What is happening with air cargo
Here, the blow is twofold:
1) Belly capacity is disappearing: when the passenger network through the Gulf hubs “shuts down,” the holds of wide-body passenger flights, which usually carry a significant share of urgent cargo, disappear with it. This quickly pushes rates up and overloads the remaining freighter capacity.
2) Express chains and last mile in Gulf countries are disrupted:
1) FedEx: announces the suspension of flights to/from a number of markets in the region and the temporary suspension of pickup/delivery in Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, and the UAE “until further notice,” warning of increased transit times in other countries in the region.
2) DHL Express: has temporarily suspended international shipments to/from Israel due to the closure of Israeli airspace.
For cargo, this usually means: more “transshipments,” more ground legs, shifting of some flows to alternative hubs, queues for capacity, and increased delivery times even where the skies are formally open.
In addition to countries with closed or restricted skies, the following are also significantly affected:
1) markets associated with transshipment through the UAE and Qatar (Europe – Asia – Africa),
2) India and South Asia (many destinations in the Gulf, plus onward transit),
3) ATP and European airlines, which have to cancel flights or reroute them on long detours, which affects the economics of the flight and punctuality.
In terms of scale, this already looks like a systemic network failure, rather than a local “detour zone”:
1) Thousands of flights have been canceled, and recovery is complicated by the fact that aircraft and crews are “scattered” around the world and need to be physically returned to the correct points in the network;
2) costs are rising across several areas: fuel (longer routes), airport charges for unscheduled landings, compensation/accommodation, and schedule changes; this is also reflected in the market through the reaction of carrier and tourism sector stocks.
3) Regulatory factors are amplifying the effect: EASA warns of high risk in the area, and the US has long had bans/restrictions on flights in certain FIRs (e.g., Iran and Iraq due to SFAR and security NOTAM).
