The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) has raised its estimate of the potential 2026 grain and oilseed harvest by 1 million tons—to 83.6 million tons, which is 11.6% higher than the 2025 figure (74.9 million tons)—due to increased yields of corn and sunflower, the UGA press service reported on Monday.
“With such a harvest, exports in the new 2026/2027 season could potentially reach 50.8 million tons (the export estimate for the current season is 42.3 million tons). However, this is an optimistic scenario, the realization of which will be possible only if Ukraine’s logistical problems do not worsen due to Russia’s aggression and its constant bombing of Ukrainian transport infrastructure and energy facilities,” the statement noted.
According to the UGA’s estimate, the wheat harvest in 2026 could reach 22.8 million tons (22.5 million tons in 2025), and its exports in the 2026/2027 marketing year (MY) could reach 17 million tons compared to the expected 13.5 million tons in the current season.
The UGA estimates the barley harvest in 2026 at 5.2 million tons (4.9 million tons in 2025), with likely exports of about 2.2 million tons, compared to 1.6 million tons in the current season.
According to the UGA’s forecast, the corn harvest in 2026 will total 32.1 million tons (31.1 million tons in 2025), and exports could reach 27 million tons compared to 22 million tons in the current season.
“Expectations for this year’s corn harvest are positive thanks to favorable weather conditions so far,” the association explained.
The UGA expects the sunflower harvest in 2026 to reach 13.3 million tons, compared to 11.1 million tons in 2025.
“Traditionally, almost all sunflowers will be processed in Ukraine—13.5 million tons. Exports will not exceed 50,000 tons,” the statement said.
In 2026, the rapeseed harvest, according to UGA forecasts, could reach 3.4 million tons compared to 3.2 million tons in 2025, while exports for the 2026/2027 marketing year may amount to only 1.9 million tons.
This year’s soybean harvest is expected to reach 4.9 million tons, which is less than last year’s 5 million tons, while potential exports are projected at 2.3 million tons compared to 2.9 million tons in the current season.
As reported, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts wheat and corn exports from Ukraine in the 2026/2027 season at 13 million tons and 23 million tons, respectively, which is 0.5 million tons and 1 million tons more than in the current season.
At the same time, the USDA expects wheat production to decline to 23 million tons from 24.1 million tons last year, and corn production to decline to 30 million tons from 30.9 million tons last year.
