The cow herd in Ukraine will continue to shrink and, as of January 1, 2028, could fall to 917,000 head, compared to an estimated 1.055 million head at the beginning of 2026, while milk production, after many years of decline, will stabilize at around 6.7 million metric tons per year, according to the study “The Dairy Industry of Ukraine in the Context of European Integration.”
Vadym Chagarovsky, Chairman of the Ukrainian Dairy Enterprises Association, noted during the study’s presentation at Agro Ukraine Week 2026 that despite the steady decline in the cow herd in Ukraine, productivity is rising and the volume of milk sent for processing is increasing.
According to the study, the total dairy cow herd across all farm categories decreased from 2.018 million head in 2018 to 1.055 million head in 2026, a decline of 48%.
The largest decline is occurring on private farms, where the herd size decreased by 55% between 2018 and 2026—to 660 thousand head—and may fall to 500 thousand head by 2028.
At the same time, following a prolonged decline, the herd size at agricultural enterprises is projected to grow from 395 thousand head in 2026 to 417 thousand head in 2028.
Milk production in Ukraine has also declined in recent years—from 10.2 million metric tons in 2017 to 6.9 million metric tons in 2025, or by 33%.
At the same time, the study’s authors predict that the long-standing decline in milk production will come to an end and that production will stabilize at 6.7 million metric tons in 2026–2027.
Milk production at agricultural enterprises will continue to grow—from 3.4 million metric tons in 2026 to 3.7 million metric tons in 2027—while production on private farms will decrease from 3.3 million metric tons to 3 million metric tons, respectively. The share of industrial milk production is forecast to increase from 46% in 2025 to 55% in 2027.
Chagarovsky also emphasized that the Ukrainian dairy industry retains its potential for growth thanks to industrial production and the modernization of enterprises.
According to the study, Ukraine’s dairy industry currently produces 6.9 million metric tons of milk per year, accounts for about 0.25% of GDP, and generates 124 billion hryvnia in output. Ukraine’s share of global milk production stands at 0.7%.
To transition to an industrial model of sector development and increase production to 10 million metric tons of milk per year, investments totaling EUR9 billion are needed to establish a raw material base. Specifically, this includes increasing the herd by 750,000 cows and constructing approximately 700 industrial dairy farms. According to the study’s authors, an additional EUR6 billion needs to be allocated to modernizing and expanding processing capacities.
The study “Ukraine’s Dairy Industry in the Context of European Integration” was prepared by the Ukrainian Dairy Industry Association.
Cow, dairy industry, EUROPEAN INTEGRATION, INVESTMENTS, MILK, PRODUCTION
