The cow herd in Ukraine will continue to shrink and, as of January 1, 2028, could fall to 917,000 head, compared to an estimated 1.055 million head at the beginning of 2026, while milk production, after many years of decline, will stabilize at around 6.7 million metric tons per year, according to the study “The Dairy Industry of Ukraine in the Context of European Integration.”
Vadym Chagarovsky, Chairman of the Ukrainian Dairy Enterprises Association, noted during the study’s presentation at Agro Ukraine Week 2026 that despite the steady decline in the cow herd in Ukraine, productivity is rising and the volume of milk sent for processing is increasing.
According to the study, the total dairy cow herd across all farm categories decreased from 2.018 million head in 2018 to 1.055 million head in 2026, a decline of 48%.
The largest decline is occurring on private farms, where the herd size decreased by 55% between 2018 and 2026—to 660 thousand head—and may fall to 500 thousand head by 2028.
At the same time, following a prolonged decline, the herd size at agricultural enterprises is projected to grow from 395 thousand head in 2026 to 417 thousand head in 2028.
Milk production in Ukraine has also declined in recent years—from 10.2 million metric tons in 2017 to 6.9 million metric tons in 2025, or by 33%.
At the same time, the study’s authors predict that the long-standing decline in milk production will come to an end and that production will stabilize at 6.7 million metric tons in 2026–2027.
Milk production at agricultural enterprises will continue to grow—from 3.4 million metric tons in 2026 to 3.7 million metric tons in 2027—while production on private farms will decrease from 3.3 million metric tons to 3 million metric tons, respectively. The share of industrial milk production is forecast to increase from 46% in 2025 to 55% in 2027.
Chagarovsky also emphasized that the Ukrainian dairy industry retains its potential for growth thanks to industrial production and the modernization of enterprises.
According to the study, Ukraine’s dairy industry currently produces 6.9 million metric tons of milk per year, accounts for about 0.25% of GDP, and generates 124 billion hryvnia in output. Ukraine’s share of global milk production stands at 0.7%.
To transition to an industrial model of sector development and increase production to 10 million metric tons of milk per year, investments totaling EUR9 billion are needed to establish a raw material base. Specifically, this includes increasing the herd by 750,000 cows and constructing approximately 700 industrial dairy farms. According to the study’s authors, an additional EUR6 billion needs to be allocated to modernizing and expanding processing capacities.
The study “Ukraine’s Dairy Industry in the Context of European Integration” was prepared by the Ukrainian Dairy Industry Association.
Cow, dairy industry, EUROPEAN INTEGRATION, INVESTMENTS, MILK, PRODUCTION
PJSC “Zhytomyrmoloko” plans to sell 100% of the corporate rights to its subsidiary, the “Novograd-Volynsky Cheese Plant,” to PJSC “Favorit Company”—owned by the family of former People’s Deputy Boryslav Rosenblat—for 47 million hryvnias.
The matter will be discussed at an extraordinary meeting of Zhytomyrmoloko shareholders on July 3, according to the company’s filing with the National Securities and Stock Market Commission (NSSMC).
According to the agenda, shareholders will also consider increasing the state-owned enterprise’s authorized capital by 80.1 million UAH prior to the sale, which could be achieved by offsetting the debt of the “Novograd-Volynsky Cheese Plant” to “KOMO Ukraine” LLC, the claim rights to which the LLC will previously assign to “Zhytomyrmolok.”
According to the draft resolution, the cheese plant’s authorized capital is planned to be increased to 80.37 million UAH from 0.23 million UAH.
In addition, the meeting will consider the issue of the free-of-charge transfer to the cheese plant of real estate owned by “Zhytomyrmolok,” specifically production buildings with a total area of 22.6 thousand square meters and wastewater treatment facilities in the village of Natalivka, Zhytomyr Oblast.
The agenda also includes a proposal to terminate the mortgage and pledge agreements concluded with Ukreximbank to secure the loan obligations of the “KOMO” Group.
PJSC “Zhytomyrmoloko” is part of the “KOMO” group of companies, one of the largest cheese producers in Ukraine. State Enterprise “Novograd-Volynskyi Cheese Plant” is a production asset of the group.
According to data from YouControl, the state enterprise had no net revenue from product sales in 2025 and the first quarter of 2026. Its net loss for the past year amounted to 3.12 million UAH, and its current liabilities as of March 31 of this year totaled 84.24 million UAH.
According to information in the NSSMC disclosure system, 94.9755% of Zhytomyrmoloko’s shares are owned by the Cypriot company WMG West Milk Limited. According to information in the NSSMC’s disclosure system, its beneficial owners are Sofia and Roman—the children of Igor Yeremeyev, a lawmaker who died in 2015—each holding 23.75%, and Mykhailo Romaniv, who holds 47.04%.
According to information on its website, the “Favorit” Group of Companies is a vertically integrated holding company founded in 1994. It encompasses the dairy, construction, hospitality, and service sectors. As noted on the website, the dairy business is a strategic focus of the group and is represented by the Galiivka Butter Plant, located in the village of Galiivka, 75 km from Zhytomyr. The plant produces 50 types of dairy products across 7 categories: butter, soft cheeses, condensed milk, skim milk powder, sweet cream spread, milk-based cheese products, and milk-based condensed products. Its stated production capacity is 1,000 metric tons per year.
According to data from YouControl, Favorit Company’s revenue grew by 7.1% last year to 28.08 million UAH, and its net profit amounted to 5.29 million UAH, compared to a net loss of 5.12 million UAH the previous year.
According to information in the NSSMC’s disclosure system, the owners of “Favorit Company” are Borislav Rosenblat (16%), Zhanna Rosenblat (34%), and Olena Rosenblat (50%).
dairy industry, Favorit Company, Novograd-Volynskyi Cheese Plant, Житомирмолоко, КОМО
Despite losses in eastern Ukraine, dairy production is not stopping but shifting to central and western regions, said Vitaliy Koval, Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine, at the conference “Dairy Industry: Ukraine – EU.”
The minister noted that 125 dairy farms are currently being built or modernized in Ukraine.
He expressed confidence that the stability of the dairy business is an example for the entire economy, and that the effective distribution of margins between producers, processors, and retailers is not only a matter of economics but also of trust.
“Only synergy between all participants can provide the economies of scale that will allow creating added value both in the country and for export. I am grateful for the open and professional dialogue. It was a fruitful conversation, which I am convinced will have practical results for the industry,” Koval emphasized.
At the same time, he noted that pricing is the key to fairness in the chain and called on producers to move from raw materials to finished products.
“A ton of Ukrainian agricultural exports costs an average of EUR 291. For comparison, in the EU it is EUR 1,536. This is the difference between a raw material economy and an added value economy. Our task is to ensure that the share of livestock and processing reaches over 50% in the agricultural sector,” the Minister of Agricultural Policy concluded.
