According to Experts Club, the global oil market has entered a phase of a major fuel crisis following more than half a year of declining commercial stocks of crude oil and petroleum products, while the options for further drawing on strategic reserves are becoming increasingly limited, The Wall Street Journal reports, citing executives from the largest U.S. oil companies.
As the publication notes, U.S. oil companies have been warning for several months that prolonged restrictions on shipments through the Strait of Hormuz would ultimately lead to a fuel shortage. Now, according to their assessment, that moment has arrived.
Global commercial fuel stocks have been declining for more than six months. At the same time, governments have already been actively drawing on strategic reserves to keep prices in check, so the volume of available additional supply has dropped significantly. The WSJ emphasizes that this does not mean government reserves have physically run out, but rather that the scope for new large-scale interventions is becoming significantly narrower.
Chevron CEO Mike Wirth stated as early as September 11 that the reserves and other mechanisms that had kept oil prices from rising for several months “have largely run their course.” According to him, global commercial oil reserves were at high levels at the beginning of the year, but by September they had declined significantly.
The attack on the East-West oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia—which allows oil to be exported bypassing the Strait of Hormuz—dealt an additional blow to the market. Analysts estimate that after the pipeline was shut down, at least 2.5 million barrels of oil per day disappeared from the market.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) also confirms these supply issues. The agency describes the situation as the largest disruption to oil supplies in the history of the global market. Before the crisis, approximately 15 million barrels of crude oil and another 5 million barrels of petroleum products passed through the Strait of Hormuz daily, which together accounted for about 20% of global oil consumption.
To stabilize the market, IEA member countries agreed back in March to release 400 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves—the largest such release in the agency’s history. However, as the crisis drags on, this reserve mechanism is becoming less effective.
According to the latest available IEA data, from the start of the Middle East crisis through the end of July alone, global observed oil stocks fell by approximately 410 million barrels, or an average of 2.7 million barrels per day. Total stocks fell below 7.9 billion barrels for the first time since April 2025.
The situation is particularly tense in the diesel and jet fuel markets. The IEA notes a sharp decline in international shipments of petroleum products and a record increase in refining margins. Diesel exports from Russia, the Middle East, and Asia were approximately 1.3 million barrels per day lower than last year’s level, accounting for about one-fifth of global seaborne diesel trade.
An additional risk stems from China. In previous months, the country had cut imports and partially drawn down its own stockpiles, helping to curb global demand. However, by August, Chinese refineries were already processing more crude oil than was supplied by current imports and domestic production, prompting the country to draw down its stockpiles more aggressively.
Against this backdrop, Brent crude is once again trading above $100 per barrel. Following a new attack on Saudi infrastructure, Brent prices rose to approximately $107.5 per barrel on September 15, while WTI prices climbed above $103.
The IEA identifies the restoration of full-scale oil and petroleum product shipments through the Strait of Hormuz as the key factor capable of quickly stabilizing the market. Without this, the global economy will remain vulnerable to new disruptions, as a significant portion of the reserves that helped the world weather the first months of the crisis has already been depleted.
Source: The Wall Street Journal article “Oil Executives Say the Great Fuel Crisis Is Here” dated September 15, 2026.
