According to Fixygen, the cryptocurrency market ended the week of July 27–August 1 mostly lower amid the U.S. Federal Reserve’s cautious stance, volatile inflows into exchange-traded funds, and weak earnings reports from Coinbase, the largest U.S. crypto exchange.
As of August 1, Bitcoin was trading at around $63,000, down from approximately $65,300 at the start of the week. Thus, the leading cryptocurrency lost about 3.6%.
Ethereum rose to nearly $1,950 at the start of the week but then also came under pressure. Most of the major altcoins were unable to sustain a steady upward trend, as investors preferred to reduce their positions in riskier assets. Solana largely remained within the $70–76 range throughout the week.
The main macroeconomic event of the week was the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting on July 28–29. The Fed kept the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75%. At the same time, the regulator noted that inflation remains above the 2% target, particularly due to rising energy prices and other consequences of the conflict in the Middle East. An additional hawkish signal came from the fact that three members of the Federal Open Market Committee voted to raise rates by 0.25 percentage points.
For cryptocurrencies, this means that expensive dollar liquidity will persist. With high interest rates, investors receive attractive yields on government bonds and money market instruments, which limits the inflow of capital into Bitcoin and altcoins.
The market had been hoping for at least some softer rhetoric from the Fed, so the lack of a signal regarding an imminent rate cut was one of the reasons for Bitcoin’s decline in the second half of the week.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs ended the week with a combined net outflow of about $61.5 million. On Monday and Tuesday, investors withdrew $11.6 million and $49.7 million, respectively. On Wednesday, the funds recorded an inflow of $32.1 million, and on Thursday, $233.1 million. However, on Friday, $265.4 million was withdrawn again. This pattern indicates that there is no sustained institutional demand yet. Positive inflows last for one or two days, after which they are followed by comparable or even larger outflows.
Friday’s outflow from BlackRock’s IBIT fund was particularly notable at $122.7 million. $54.8 million was withdrawn from Fidelity’s FBTC, and $52.6 million from Grayscale’s GBTC.
Until Bitcoin ETFs return to a steady inflow of funds, a price recovery above the nearest resistance levels will be difficult.
Coinbase’s financial results put additional pressure on the market. The largest public crypto exchange in the U.S. reported its third consecutive quarterly loss. Following the release of the report, Coinbase’s stock price fell, and analysts noted challenging conditions for cryptocurrency trading and a lack of clarity regarding the timeline for a recovery in trading volumes.
Declining activity among retail investors is one of the main risks for the market. Despite Coinbase’s share of cryptocurrency trading rising to 10.3%, overall market volumes remain weak.
At the same time, the company continues to reduce its reliance on spot trading fees and is expanding its business in stablecoins, derivatives, digital asset custody, and blockchain infrastructure. However, this is more of a long-term positive factor and does not yet offset the decline in speculative activity.
One of the week’s trends was investors’ continued tendency to focus on the largest and most liquid digital assets. When macroeconomic risks intensify, capital typically flows out of smaller tokens faster than out of Bitcoin. As a result, altcoins may decline even if the price of Bitcoin remains relatively stable.
Ethereum maintains fundamental support thanks to the network’s use in decentralized finance, asset tokenization, and infrastructure projects. However, for a sustainable recovery, it needs a rebound in demand across the entire crypto market and stabilization of Bitcoin.
Solana and other highly volatile assets may experience short-term spikes, but without an increase in liquidity, such movements are likely to remain unsustainable.
The base case scenario for early August remains Bitcoin’s consolidation within the $60,000–$66,000 range. The nearest support zone is the $62,000–$63,000 range. However, $60,000 remains the key psychological and technical threshold. A resurgence of geopolitical tensions or continued outflows from ETFs could lead to a retest of this level.
A sustained move below $60,000 would increase the likelihood of a decline toward the $55,000–58,000 range. For this scenario to play out, a combination of several negative factors would be required: a further strengthening of the dollar, rising U.S. Treasury yields, significant outflows from ETFs, and a deterioration in stock markets.
For Bitcoin to resume its upward trend, it must return above the $64,700–$66,000 range. In this case, the next targets could be $68,000 and $70,000.
A positive scenario is possible provided there is a return of steady capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, a reduction in geopolitical risks, and the release of weak U.S. economic data, which would reinforce expectations of future Fed policy easing.
If the market stabilizes, Ethereum may attempt to climb back above $1,900. However, should Bitcoin fall to $60,000, pressure on Ethereum and most altcoins will intensify.
Thus, in early August, the market will most likely remain volatile and dependent primarily on inflows into U.S. ETFs, U.S. macroeconomic data, and the situation in the Middle East. There is no clear signal yet that the correction has ended, but Bitcoin holding the $60,000 level will support the possibility of a further recovery.
Bitcoin is the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, created in 2009. Ethereum is the second-largest digital currency and serves as the underlying asset for the Ethereum smart contract network.
