In its August forecast, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) lowered its forecast for soybean and soybean meal exports from Ukraine in the 2026/2027 marketing year (marketing year, September 2026–August 2027) by 0.25 million metric tons—to 2.15 million metric tons and 1.25 million metric tons, respectively.
The USDA attributes these changes to a reduction in planted acreage and a decline in this year’s soybean harvest.
Overall, the forecast for oilseed exports from Ukraine in the 2026/2027 MY has also been reduced by 0.25 million metric tons—to 4.85 million metric tons—but this is higher than the 4.24 million metric tons in the 2025/2026 MY, although significantly lower than the 7.39 million metric tons recorded the year before.
As for oilseed processing, the U.S. Department of Agriculture expects it to reach 16.9 million metric tons in Ukraine during the 2026/2027 marketing year, which is 0.3 million metric tons less than in the July report. This is higher than the figures for both the 2025/2026 marketing year (14.8 million metric tons) and the 2024/2025 marketing year (15.7 million metric tons).
The USDA also lowered its estimate for sunflower oil exports from Ukraine in the 2025/2026 marketing year by 0.275 million metric tons, to 4.1 million metric tons.
All other estimates for harvest, processing, production, and exports for the 2025/2026 and 2026/2027 marketing years remain unchanged.
Thus, the overall forecast for vegetable oil exports from Ukraine in the 2026/2027 marketing year remains at 6.13 million metric tons, compared to 5.15 million metric tons in the 2025/2026 marketing year, including, respectively, sunflower oil at 4.95 million metric tons versus 4.1 million metric tons, sunflower meal at 3.3 million metric tons compared to 2.9 million metric tons in the 2025/26 marketing year, and sunflower seeds at 0.1 million metric tons versus 0.04 million metric tons
According to estimates by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, sunflower processing in Ukraine this marketing year will increase to 12.775 million metric tons from 10.8 million metric tons a year earlier, domestic consumption of sunflower meal will rise to 1.875 million metric tons from 1.65 million metric tons, and oil consumption will increase to 0.47 million metric tons from 0.455 million metric tons.
The USDA forecasts this year’s sunflower harvest at 13 million metric tons, with sunflower oil production at 4.418 million metric tons and meal production at 5.204 million metric tons.
