According to “Serbian Economist”, early parliamentary elections in Serbia are scheduled for October 25, 2026, according to local media reports.
Previously, President Aleksandar Vučić had mentioned two possible dates—October 18 or 25. Now, Serbian publications such as Blic, Danas, and others are reporting that October 25 has been chosen. The National Assembly is expected to be dissolved in the coming days, after which the campaign is set to officially begin.
The main question is whether the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) will be able to retain its majority amid protracted protests and growing support for the student movement.
Recent polls paint a very mixed picture. According to Faktor Plus, in the spring the SNS had about 46% support, while a potential student-led slate had about 29%. More recent surveys have shown that the gap may be even smaller: in July, CRTA estimated support for the student list at 44.9% and for the SNS at 35.7%. At the same time, other polls, as before, put the SNS at 45–47%.
At this point, a brief analysis is as follows:
SNS / the bloc centered on Vučić—the favorite, with a projected range of 36–47%
The Student List—the main competitor, with potential support of approximately 29–45%, but highly dependent on polls
Ivica Dačić’s SPS—5–7%, a likely coalition partner
The pro-European opposition—may achieve a notable result overall but remains fragmented
Mi—Snaga Naroda, NPS, SSP, ZLF, Nova DSS—are fighting to clear the electoral threshold and influence the future coalition
The baseline scenario for now is as follows: the SNS will most likely remain the leading force, but the election could be the most competitive in recent years.
