According to “Serbian Economist”, early parliamentary elections in Serbia are scheduled for October 25, 2026, according to local media reports.
Previously, President Aleksandar Vučić had mentioned two possible dates—October 18 or 25. Now, Serbian publications such as Blic, Danas, and others are reporting that October 25 has been chosen. The National Assembly is expected to be dissolved in the coming days, after which the campaign is set to officially begin.
The main question is whether the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) will be able to retain its majority amid protracted protests and growing support for the student movement.
Recent polls paint a very mixed picture. According to Faktor Plus, in the spring the SNS had about 46% support, while a potential student-led slate had about 29%. More recent surveys have shown that the gap may be even smaller: in July, CRTA estimated support for the student list at 44.9% and for the SNS at 35.7%. At the same time, other polls, as before, put the SNS at 45–47%.
At this point, a brief analysis is as follows:
SNS / the bloc centered on Vučić—the favorite, with a projected range of 36–47%
The Student List—the main competitor, with potential support of approximately 29–45%, but highly dependent on polls
Ivica Dačić’s SPS—5–7%, a likely coalition partner
The pro-European opposition—may achieve a notable result overall but remains fragmented
Mi—Snaga Naroda, NPS, SSP, ZLF, Nova DSS—are fighting to clear the electoral threshold and influence the future coalition
The baseline scenario for now is as follows: the SNS will most likely remain the leading force, but the election could be the most competitive in recent years.
Reports have been confirmed in Romania of joint action by the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) against the government of Ilie Bolojan. Following announcements on April 27 regarding the start of technical preparations, the parties submitted a joint no-confidence resolution against the cabinet to parliament as early as April 28.
Reuters and AP report that the motion aims to topple the pro-European government of Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan after the PSD withdrew from the coalition, thereby depriving the cabinet of its parliamentary majority.
Parliamentary leadership has determined that the document will be read on April 29, while the debate and vote are scheduled for May 5. It was also reported that the text has gathered 251 signatures, while 233 votes are required to pass the resolution.
The political significance of this move extends far beyond parliamentary procedure. The fall of the Bolojan government could trigger prolonged political instability, put pressure on Romania’s credit rating, increase the cost of government borrowing, and complicate access to more than €10 billion in European funds that Bucharest must manage to absorb within the timeframe of the EU recovery program.
At the same time, although the PSD is working with AUR to topple the government, it has not declared its readiness to form a joint cabinet with the far-right. Both AP and Reuters emphasize that the Social Democrats are more likely trying to reshape the government on terms more favorable to themselves rather than create a full-fledged alliance with AUR.
