According to Fixygen, the cryptocurrency market is ending the first week of September on an uptrend after significant volatility at the start of the week: Bitcoin has returned above the $81,000 mark, Ethereum has approached $2,500, and the total market capitalization has risen to approximately $2.81 trillion. The main driver of this movement was a shift in expectations regarding the U.S. Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy.
According to CoinGecko, as of midday on September 4, Bitcoin was trading at around $81,000, Ethereum at around $2,500, XRP at $1.44–1.45, and Solana at around $104. The total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market stood at approximately $2.81 trillion, having increased by about 4.5% over the past 24 hours. Bitcoin accounted for about 58% of the market capitalization, while Ethereum accounted for about 11%.
The week started off much weaker. On August 31, Bitcoin was trading at around $78,600; on September 1–2, it fell to $77,000, but then rebounded sharply. On the night of September 4, the price rose to approximately $82,200—a high not seen in more than three months. Thus, compared to the start of the week, BTC has risen in price by about 3%, although the change over the past seven days remains significantly more modest—about 1%. (CoinGecko)
The main reason for the new surge was statements by Federal Reserve Board member Christopher Waller. Speaking on September 3, he said he was prepared to support keeping the interest rate at its current level if incoming data confirmed a further slowdown in inflation. At the same time, Waller did not rule out a rate hike if August inflation accelerates again. Following his remarks, pressure on the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields eased, which supported risk assets, particularly cryptocurrencies.
Ethereum showed more subdued price action throughout the week. After reaching a level of around $2,470 on August 31, ETH fell below $2,400, then recovered to approximately $2,500. XRP, after falling to $1.35, rose again to about $1.45, while Solana climbed above $100. On a seven-day basis, Ethereum and XRP are roughly flat, while Solana is down about 3%.
U.S. spot ETFs remain a key support factor for Bitcoin. Following a net outflow of about $236.5 million on September 1, the funds received about $101 million on September 2, and preliminary data for September 3 already indicates approximately $277 million in inflows.
In August, the total inflow into spot Bitcoin ETFs was estimated at approximately $3.52 billion. However, capital flows remain volatile and do not yet indicate a return to a sustained series of daily purchases.
The situation in the Ethereum market is less clear-cut. On September 2, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded a net outflow of about $48 million, breaking a streak of 12 trading sessions with inflows, during which the funds attracted about $1.62 billion. This partly explains ETH’s weaker performance compared to Bitcoin in early September.
Among large and mid-cap cryptocurrencies, Zcash stood out as the most notable exception this week: according to CoinDesk, as of September 4, the coin had risen by approximately 20% over seven days and about 15% over the past 24 hours. Hyperliquid also significantly outperformed most major crypto assets.
In the coming days, the market will remain primarily dependent on U.S. macroeconomic data. On September 4, the U.S. Department of Labor is set to release the August employment report, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released on September 11. These figures will be particularly important ahead of the Fed meeting on September 15–16. The official BLS calendar confirms the release of August labor market data on September 4 and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on September 11.
The base case scenario for Bitcoin in the near term is that it will remain within a range of approximately $76,000–$83,000. The $76,000–$77,000 zone acted as support several times earlier this week, while the $82,000 level has already become the nearest resistance. A sustained move above $82,000–$83,000, coupled with continued capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, could pave the way toward the $85,000–$88,000 level. In the event of strong U.S. inflation or labor market data that once again increases the likelihood of a Fed rate hike, a return to the $76,000–78,000 range becomes the most likely scenario. A break below this support level would significantly worsen the short-term technical picture.
For Ethereum, the $2,400–$2,550 range remains key. A confident break above $2,550 could allow the market to test $2,700–$2,800; however, this would require not only a rise in Bitcoin but also a resumption of a steady inflow of capital into the Ethereum ETF. If sentiment deteriorates, a pullback below $2,400 will once again bring the $2,250–2,300 zone into focus.
Thus, the first week of September has not yet become a full-fledged continuation of August’s strong rally. Rather, the market has entered a phase of testing the levels reached: Bitcoin appears stronger than most major altcoins, institutional demand remains steady, but capital flows through ETFs are volatile. The main drivers for the crypto market over the next two weeks will be U.S. inflation, the Fed’s decision, and Bitcoin’s ability to hold above $82,000.
BITCOIN, CRYPTOCURRENCY, Ethereum, INVESTMENTS, MARKET
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