Yevgen Osipov, CEO of the agricultural holding “Kernel,” anticipates—in a stress scenario—a 12-million-metric-ton decline in grain production in Ukraine next year due to a possible reduction in planted acreage by farmers, if no solution is found within the next six months to resume exports, according to a correspondent for the Interfax-Ukraine news agency.
“It is difficult to make such forecasts today. We hope that some solutions will be found in the next six months. If no practical solution is found, then, objectively speaking, the area under cultivation will be reduced. In such a stress scenario, we estimated this would result in a shortfall of 12 million metric tons of grain next year,” he said at the “Forbes Ukraine” Economic Resilience Forum in Kyiv on Wednesday.
According to Osipov, with seaports closed, Ukraine will be able to export only about 20 million metric tons of the 50 million metric tons of agricultural products needed—that is, 40% of the required volume—so companies are having to pivot to other business models.
“Based on our own experience with the most recent export corridors, about 50% of the operations were inefficient; we need to find new ways. Because right now, for businesses, it’s a matter of building a new business model. In other words, the old business model doesn’t work there anymore. That’s why, for our part, we’re focusing on processing and exporting processed products,” Osipov noted.
According to him, under its new business model, “Kernel” is focusing on exporting smaller volumes of products with higher added value, while retaining the ability to purchase oilseeds from Ukrainian farmers, pay them, and export processed products.
Osipov also added that, due to security and logistical constraints as well as external factors, it is currently not realistic to expect that the Danube ports will be able to handle the same volume of shipments that Ukraine had in 2022–2023.
As previously reported, in its September report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its estimate for this year’s wheat production in Ukraine by 0.6 million metric tons compared to the August forecast—to 26 million metric tons—and its estimate for other grains (excluding wheat and corn) by 0.5 million metric tons, to 7.29 million metric tons, and maintained its corn production forecast at 31.8 million metric tons. Thus, the USDA estimates Ukraine’s total grain production this year at 65.09 million metric tons.
