Investment firm Concorde Capital forecasts a 1% decline in Ukraine’s GDP by the end of 2026 and expects a further contraction next year, said the company’s founder and CEO, Ihor Mazepa, during the Forbes Ukraine “Private Investments” conference in Kyiv on Tuesday.
“Industrial production will decline by 3%, and inflation will be around 12%,” he added, elaborating on the forecast for 2026.
This forecast takes into account the consequences of Russian attacks, including the closure of major metallurgical and agricultural companies, as well as the destruction of warehouses.
As previously reported, in its October macroeconomic review, the KSE Institute downgraded its forecast for Ukraine’s real GDP in 2026 from 1.9% growth to a 0.3% decline, and for 2027—from 2.1% growth to a 0.6% contraction—due to intensified Russian attacks on critical infrastructure and production facilities.
In early October, the World Bank projected a slowdown in Ukraine’s GDP growth to 1.2% in 2026 from 1.8% in 2025, followed by an acceleration to 1.5% in 2027, while revising down its forecast for the following year from 4%.
In the October issue of the World Economic Outlook, the IMF forecasts Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2026 at 1%, down from 1–1.6% in its June forecast, and maintained its forecast for 2027 at 3.5%.
Due to Russia’s attacks on ports and ships in the Black Sea, the EBRD has lowered its forecast for Ukraine’s real GDP growth in 2026 to 1.5% from 2.2%, and for 2027 to 2.5% from 4%.
Dragon Capital currently expects Ukraine’s GDP to contract by 0.5% in 2026 and by 1% in 2027, whereas prior to the escalation of the war in July, it had forecast growth of 1.5% and 0.5%, respectively.
The ICU Investment Group, which in June downgraded its forecast for Ukraine’s real GDP growth in 2026 to 0.8% from 1.2%, now expects it to contract by 0.6% this year and by 1.9% next year.
