According to Experts Club, on October 30, 2026, the international rating agency Fitch Ratings unexpectedly revised its outlook on France’s long-term sovereign credit rating from “stable” to “negative,” while maintaining the rating itself at A+. This decision is linked to the deterioration of public finances in the eurozone’s second-largest economy, a slowdown in economic growth, and rising debt-service costs, Reuters reported, citing a statement from Fitch.
The rating agency noted that since its previous review in August 2026, France’s credit metrics have deteriorated sharply. Economic growth has been weaker than expected, government bond yields have risen significantly, and the prospects for reducing the budget deficit have become less certain.
Fitch is particularly concerned about the trend in public debt, which, according to the agency’s forecast, will rise from 115.7% of GDP in 2025 to approximately 124% of GDP in 2028.
Thus, over the next three years, France’s debt burden could rise by more than 8 percentage points of GDP, despite the government’s stated plans for fiscal consolidation.
According to Fitch’s assessment, the total fiscal adjustment required to stabilize public debt now stands at about 3.5% of GDP, compared with 3% of GDP in the August forecast.
An additional challenge is the rise in public debt servicing costs. The agency expects interest payments on the debt to increase from 2.5% of GDP in 2025 to 3.3% of GDP in 2028.
This means that an increasingly large share of budgetary resources will be directed toward payments to creditors, which will limit the ability to finance other government expenditures without raising taxes or taking on new debt.
Fitch forecasts that France’s general government deficit will reach 5.5% of GDP in 2027. This significantly exceeds the 3% of GDP benchmark set by European fiscal rules.
Meanwhile, the French government expects to reduce the deficit to 5% of GDP in 2027. Fitch’s higher forecast reflects the agency’s doubts about the feasibility of implementing the planned austerity measures and generating additional budget revenues.
The negative economic trends are also confirmed by the latest official statistics.
According to a preliminary estimate by France’s National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE), published on October 30, the country’s GDP contracted by 0.1% in the third quarter of 2026, following zero growth in the second quarter.
At the same time, exports fell by 1.7% compared to the previous quarter, and fixed capital formation declined by 0.6%.
Inflation added to the pressure; according to INSEE data for October, it accelerated to 3.4% on a year-over-year basis.
The situation in the government bond market also reflects growing investor concern.
The yield on 10-year French bonds exceeded 5.14% at the end of October, reaching its highest level since 2002.
Rising yields mean higher costs for the government to raise new funds and a gradual increase in the cost of refinancing existing debt.
Of particular significance is the widening spread between French and German government bond yields, which are traditionally used as a benchmark for assessing debt risks in the eurozone.
In October, this spread reached 178 basis points, compared with approximately 85 points in early September, indicating a notable increase in the risk premium on French government debt.
Fitch also highlights the political constraints on fiscal policy.
The French government lacks a stable parliamentary majority, and the approaching 2027 presidential election complicates efforts to agree on spending cuts and tax changes.
Mass protests over the cost of living, funding for public services, and socioeconomic reforms are creating additional pressure.
According to the agency’s assessment, political fragmentation and a tense social climate make it difficult to implement a consistent, multi-year policy to reduce the budget deficit.
At the same time, Fitch believes that the 2027 budget could be adopted using the mechanisms provided for in the French Constitution, even without a stable majority in the National Assembly.
However, the mere adoption of the budget does not guarantee that the stated financial targets will be met if economic growth remains weak and debt service costs continue to rise.
French Minister of Economy and Finance Roland Lescure stated in an official announcement on October 30 that the government takes note of Fitch’s decision.
According to him, it confirms the need to adopt a responsible budget by the end of the year, aimed at reducing the public finance deficit to 5% of GDP.
The minister emphasized that the government intends to continue fiscal consolidation and ensure predictable conditions for economic activity.
Fitch’s decision marked yet another warning from the major international rating agencies regarding France’s financial situation.
On October 23, Moody’s maintained the country’s credit rating at Aa3 with a negative outlook. Meanwhile, S&P Global Ratings rates France at A+ with a stable outlook.
Thus, two of the three largest international rating agencies now have a negative outlook on French government debt.
Fitch plans to conduct its next review of France’s rating no later than the end of February 2027.
A negative outlook does not imply an automatic downgrade, but it does indicate an increased risk of such a decision in the future if public finances continue to deteriorate.
At the same time, the agency emphasizes that the current A+ rating is supported by the size and diversification of the French economy, high household income levels, the resilience of government institutions, membership in the eurozone, and a relatively stable banking sector.
For the European economy, the deterioration in France’s fiscal outlook is significant primarily due to the size of its public debt and the role of the French financial market in the eurozone.
A further rise in the cost of government borrowing could increase debt-service costs, limit the scope for fiscal stimulus, and intensify pressure on public finances.
In addition, persistently high yields on government bonds could affect lending conditions for French companies and households, as the cost of sovereign borrowing serves as one of the benchmarks for the financial market.
Fitch Ratings is one of the three largest international credit rating agencies, alongside S&P Global Ratings and Moody’s. The agency assesses the creditworthiness of governments, corporations, and financial institutions. An A+ rating falls within the investment-grade category and indicates the borrower’s relatively high ability to meet its financial obligations.
Previously, a video analysis of countries’ external debt was prepared by the Experts Club think tank — https://youtube.com/shorts/fUTLp6l_fTY?si=A2hpjEt0CCViKKnh
