The article presents key macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine and the global economy for January-July 2024. The analysis is based on official data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the National Bank of Ukraine, the IMF, the World Bank, and the UN, on the basis of which Maksym Urakin, PhD in Economics, founder of the Experts Club Information and Analytical Center and Director of Business Development and Marketing, presented an analysis of macroeconomic trends in Ukraine and the world. Key aspects such as the dynamics of gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, unemployment, foreign trade and public debt of Ukraine, as well as global macroeconomic trends are considered.
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
In the first eight months of 2024, Ukraine’s economy demonstrated steady positive dynamics amid recovery from the crisis. The National Bank of Ukraine estimated real GDP growth in the second quarter at 3.7% compared to the same period last year, which is in line with the April forecast. In July, this figure accelerated to 4.4% (compared to 3.1% in June and 3.5% in May), which was the result of an earlier and faster harvest.
“Ukraine’s economic successes in 2024 show that the country is beginning to overcome the consequences of the crisis. However, against the background of these indicators, it is important to take into account the growth of the negative foreign trade balance. This is a signal of the need to strengthen domestic production and increase export potential to avoid imbalances in the future,” said Maksym Urakin, founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center.
According to the State Statistics Service, the negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-August 2024 increased by 6.5% compared to the same period last year and amounted to $17.613 billion. The main reason for the increase was a slowdown in export growth amid accelerated imports. At the same time, Ukraine’s international reserves grew by 13.7%, reaching $42.33 billion, thanks to the attraction of long-term concessional financing from international partners.
“The growth of reserves to record levels is an important signal of confidence from international partners. However, it is important to realize that inflation remains a challenge. In August, inflation was 7.5% year-on-year after 5.4% in July and 4.8% in June. High inflation can significantly reduce the purchasing power of the population,” Urakin emphasized.
Inflation in August was 0.6% compared to July, when the price level remained unchanged. At the same time, the August price increase contrasts with the figures for the same month last year, when there was a 1.4% decline.
Ukraine’s public debt also changed in the second quarter of 2024. The total amount of state and state-guaranteed debt in hryvnia equivalent increased by UAH 243.7 billion, and in dollar equivalent by $1.1 billion. At the same time, the weighted average debt service rate decreased from 6.24% to 5.6% per annum, which indicates an increase in the efficiency of debt management.
“Effective public debt management, including lowering the interest rates on loans, is an important step for Ukraine’s financial stability. This allows the country to focus on strategic investments in infrastructure and social development,” the expert added.
Global economy
At the global level, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) left unchanged its forecast for global economic growth in 2024 at 3.2%, but improved its expectations for 2025 to 3.3%. The main drivers of global growth remain emerging market countries, including China and India, whose economies are expected to grow by 5% and 7% respectively.
“The global economy continues to move forward, but faces key challenges, including inflation and high interest rates. Interestingly, the IMF has adjusted its expectations for oil prices – they are expected to rise slightly in 2024, but decline in 2025. This underscores the importance of the stability of commodity markets for developing countries,” said Maxim Urakin.
The European economy shows more modest results. According to IMF forecasts, the Eurozone’s GDP will grow by only 0.9% in 2024, while Germany’s economy will grow by only 0.2%.
“Europe is facing many challenges – from the energy crisis to the slowdown in industrial growth. For Ukraine, this is an opportunity to strengthen its position in trade relations with the EU by exporting competitive goods and services,” the expert emphasized.
Conclusion.
The economic indicators of Ukraine and the world in January-August 2024 show mixed results. Steady GDP growth and strengthened reserves are accompanied by inflationary risks and a negative trade balance. The global economy, while moving forward, is being held back by inflation and geopolitical factors.
“It is crucial for Ukraine to focus on creating an attractive investment climate, increasing labor productivity and developing export opportunities. This will be the key to sustainable economic growth and financial stability in the future,” summarized Maksym Urakin.
Maksym Urakin, Head of the Economic Monitoring project, PhD in Economics
More detailed analysis of Ukraine’s economic indicators is available in the monthly information and analytical products of the Interfax-Ukraine agency “Economic Monitoring”.
Source: https://interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1028834.html
The celebrations on the occasion of the 35th anniversary of the Velvet Revolution in Czechoslovakia, organized by the Embassy of the Slovak Republic, took place on November 19 in the capital of Ukraine.
The event took place at the Fairmont Grand Hotel Kyiv and was attended by diplomats, representatives of the Ukrainian authorities and the public.
Addressing the guests of the event, Ambassador of the Slovak Republic to Ukraine Pavel Vizdal emphasized the importance of the Velvet Revolution for the modern history of Slovakia and the Czech Republic. In his speech, he also touched upon the war in Ukraine, recalling the 1000 days since the beginning of the full-scale invasion.
The ambassador emphasized the need for a peaceful resolution of the conflict, taking into account the territorial integrity of Ukraine.
The Velvet Revolution, which took place in Czechoslovakia in November 1989, became a symbol of a peaceful transition from totalitarianism to democracy. Mass protests against the communist government began on November 17, 1989, and by the end of the year led to the fall of the government. The revolution was called the “velvet revolution” because of the absence of violence, which was unique for the revolutionary process in Eastern Europe.
Diplomatic relations between Ukraine and the Slovak Republic were established on January 1, 1993, after the collapse of Czechoslovakia and the proclamation of Slovak independence. Since then, the countries have been actively cooperating in the political, economic, and cultural spheres.
Insurance company “INGO” (Kiev) for 9 months of 2024 collected insurance premiums in the amount of UAH 2.46 billion, which is 23.5% more than in the same period last year, the company reports. It is noted that according to experts of the National Association of Insurers of Ukraine (NAU), this corresponds to the average growth rate of the insurance market of Ukraine for the reporting period, which is 23%.
The company also reports that during the reporting period there was an increase in demand for insurance products in the segment of hull insurance (+25.3%), MTPL (+35.5%), property insurance (+47%), health insurance traveling abroad (+51.3%), accident insurance (+25.7%). At the same time, both the number of clients and the volume of premiums increased in property and auto insurance.
It is also noted that receipts from individuals have increased by 35% to UAH 735 mln. At the same time, premiums in the segment of insurance of legal entities increased by 19% and amounted to UAH 1.73 billion. According to NASU data, INGO is the leader in this segment.
During the reporting period INGO paid more than UAH 1.08 bln of indemnities, which is 32% more than last year’s figures. The largest amounts were reimbursed under contracts of voluntary health insurance – more than UAH 419 mln, CASCO – UAH 328 mln, property insurance – UAH 273 mln. More than UAH 184 mln has been indemnified for losses of agricultural producers.
Reserves of the company as of November 1, 2024 have grown by 11%, reaching almost UAH 2 billion, shareholders’ equity has grown by 16%, up to UAH 1.34 billion. At the same time, highly liquid assets amount to UAH 3,02 bln, that is by 3% more than last year’s indicator.
During the reporting period IC INGO increased the amount of paid taxes to the budgets of all levels by 23% to UAH 185 mln.
Until the end of 2024 INGO expects further increase in insurance premiums due to market concentration and introduction of new technologies. Particular attention will be paid to digitalization of processes to improve customer service, the report says.
INGO Insurance Company JSC holds licenses for 18 classes of insurance and has been providing insurance services to both individuals and companies for 30 years. Its network includes 25 branches, 5 outlets and 9 customer service centers operating in all regions of the country. The company is among the largest insurance companies in Ukraine in terms of premiums, the size of its own assets and the amount of insurance claims paid. Since 2017, the main shareholder is the Ukrainian business group DCH.
State enterprise NAEK Energoatom (Kiev) on November 20 announced a tender for compulsory insurance of motor liability of owners of land vehicles (MTPL).
As reported in the Prozorro electronic public procurement system, the total expected cost is UAH 111.1 thousand.
The deadline for submitting tender documents is November 28.
INGO Insurance Company (Kyiv) collected insurance premiums in the amount of UAH 2.46 billion for 9 months of 2024, which is 23.5% more than in the same period last year, the company said in a statement.
It is noted that, according to experts of the National Association of Insurers of Ukraine (NASU), this corresponds to the average growth rate of the Ukrainian insurance market for the reporting period, which is 23%.
The company also reports that during the reporting period, there was an increase in demand for insurance products in the hull insurance segment (+25.3%), MTPL (+35.5%), property insurance (+47%), health insurance for those traveling abroad (+51.3%), and accident insurance (+25.7%). At the same time, both the number of clients and the volume of premiums increased in property and motor insurance.
It is also noted that revenues from individuals increased by 35% to UAH 735 million. At the same time, premiums in the corporate insurance segment increased by 19% to UAH 1.73 billion. According to the National Insurance Agency of Ukraine, INGO is the leader in this segment.
During the reporting period, INGO paid more than UAH 1.08 billion in indemnities, which is 32% more than last year. The largest amounts were paid under voluntary health insurance contracts – over UAH 419 million, hull insurance – UAH 328 million, property insurance – UAH 273 million. Over UAH 184 million was reimbursed for losses incurred by agricultural producers.
As of November 1, 2024, the company’s reserves increased by 11%, reaching almost UAH 2 billion, and equity increased by 16% to UAH 1.34 billion. At the same time, highly liquid assets amounted to UAH 3.02 billion, which is 3% more than last year.
During the reporting period, INGO increased the amount of taxes paid to the budgets of all levels by 23% to UAH 185 million.
By the end of 2024, INGO expects a further increase in insurance premiums due to market concentration and the introduction of new technologies. Particular attention will be paid to the digitalization of processes to improve customer service, the statement said.
INGO Insurance Company JSC holds licenses for 18 classes of insurance and has been providing insurance services to both individuals and companies for 30 years. Its network includes 25 branches, 5 offices and 9 customer service centers operating in all regions of the country. The company is one of the largest insurance companies in Ukraine in terms of premiums, own assets and insurance claims.
Since 2017, the main shareholder is the Ukrainian business group DCH.
Austria has pledged to provide additional humanitarian support to Ukraine in the amount of EUR 8 million and will also provide EUR 2 million for the Ukrainian initiative Grain from Ukraine, Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg said.
“And today I can announce that we have committed to provide additional humanitarian support to Ukraine in the amount of EUR8 million: EUR5 million for the World Food Programme’s mine action program and EUR3 million for humanitarian assistance through international organizations working in Ukraine and Moldova,” said Schallenberg at a joint press conference with his Ukrainian counterpart Andriy Sibiga on Wednesday.
He also announced the allocation of additional funds for the Grain from Ukraine initiative.
“And I am pleased to announce that we will provide EUR2 million in addition to the EUR2 million allocated by the Austrian Development Agency for the Grain from Ukraine initiative, which I believe is important to reduce the impact of Putin’s war on global food security,” the minister said.
The foreign minister noted that at the bilateral level alone, his country provided EUR264 million in support to Ukraine, which was directed to humanitarian and financial assistance.
