Antonov JSC (Kyiv) announced on June 13 its intention to conclude a contract with ASK INGO (Kyiv) for civil aviation risk insurance services (insurance classes 1, 5, 11), according to the Prozorro electronic procurement system.
INGO’s price offer was €3.991 million, with an expected value of €4.006 million.
As reported, insurance classes 1, 5, and 11 cover aircraft insurance, aviation carrier liability insurance for damage caused to passengers, baggage, cargo, and mail, and commercial civil aircraft operator liability insurance for damage caused to third parties. The company was the only participant in the tender and also the winner of a similar tender a year earlier. INGO Insurance Company has been providing insurance services for 30 years. Since 2017, the Ukrainian business group DCH has been the main shareholder.
Market under geopolitical pressure
This week, the cryptocurrency market experienced serious turbulence due to the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Following reports of Israeli strikes on Iranian targets, the price of Bitcoin fell below $103,000, and the total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market declined by more than $140 billion. Later, BTC partially regained its positions, settling in the $105,000–107,000 range.
Ethereum also lost about 5%, dropping to $2,510.
Alternative tokens (Solana, Cardano) fell by 2–3%, while XRP unexpectedly rose by 2–2.4%.
The fear and greed index remains in the “Greed” zone (~60), but amid instability, it could quickly shift to the “Fear” zone.
How is the war between Israel and Iran affecting the crypto market?
Short-term and long-term forecasts
June forecast:
3–6 month forecast:
Long term:
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reduced its currency sales on the interbank market by $53 million, or 8.4%, to $585.8 million last week, with almost no currency purchases, according to statistics on the regulator’s website. As noted by the NBU, it purchased $0.50 million worth of currency for the first time in two weeks.
Data published by the regulator during this period show that the balance was negative throughout last week, fluctuating from $11.3 million on Monday to $11.6 million on Tuesday, $13.2 million on Wednesday, and $8.5 million on Thursday.
The official hryvnia exchange rate fluctuated from 41.4018 UAH/$1 at the beginning of the week, on Wednesday the hryvnia devalued to 41.5566/$1, and by the end of the week the rate was 41.4466 UAH/$1.
On the cash market, the hryvnia exchange rate remained virtually unchanged at the end of the week: the buying rate was approximately 41.40 UAH/$1, and the selling rate was around 41.45 UAH/$1.
“The end of May 2025 is characterized by moderate stability in Ukraine’s currency market in the absence of shock changes, despite external turbulence and a complex geopolitical background. The national currency maintains a controlled exchange rate against the US dollar, while the euro/hryvnia pair continues to show increased volatility, which is associated with both global trends and internal structural shifts in the currency preferences of businesses and the population,” experts from KYT Group, a major player in the cash currency exchange market, described the situation.
In their opinion, in the medium term of 2-4 months, the dollar-hryvnia exchange rate will return to the range of 41.80-42.50 UAH/USD, provided that imports grow, domestic inflation rises, or significant signals regarding external financing are received.
In the long term, over 6+ months, KYT Group expects a likely movement towards 43.00-45.00 UAH/$1 or even higher.
The review is available at the link – https://interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1080324.html
This article presents key macroeconomic indicators for Ukraine and the global economy as of March 1, 2025. The analysis is based on current data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the National Bank of Ukraine, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the United Nations. Maksym Urakin, Marketing and Development Director at Interfax-Ukraine, PhD in Economics and founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center, presented an overview of current macroeconomic trends.
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
The beginning of 2025 for Ukraine was marked by the continuation of complex but controllable economic dynamics. Amid the ongoing war, uncertainty in external markets, and a growing trade deficit, the Ukrainian economy is demonstrating resilience and gradual adaptation. As Maxim Urakine notes, at the end of 2024, the Ukrainian economy maintained a positive trajectory, although growth rates were more modest than expected:
“Real GDP growth of 2.9% in 2024 is, on the one hand, a positive sign of recovery, but on the other hand, it signals that the structure of the economy remains vulnerable. This growth is not based on profound investment changes or technological breakthroughs, but rather is the result of adaptation to extraordinary conditions. We are dealing with an economy that is surviving but not developing in the full sense of the word,” said Maxim Urakin, founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center.
In January–February 2025, consumer inflation remained high. In annual terms, it stood at around 12.6%, remaining close to the level seen at the end of 2024. According to the NBU, price pressures are driven by seasonal factors, higher energy prices, and a weak hryvnia.
Commenting on this trend, Urakin notes that the current level of inflation is not catastrophic, but it does not allow for economic maneuvering. High consumer prices are not only a macroeconomic problem, but also a daily challenge for millions of households. The National Bank is forced to balance between the need to maintain the hryvnia and the impossibility of sharply tightening monetary policy due to the vulnerability of the economy.
The external economic situation at the beginning of 2025 revealed a serious imbalance. In January–February, Ukraine exported $6.29 billion worth of goods, 13% less than in the same period of 2024. Imports, on the other hand, rose to $11.3 billion, up 12.3% year-on-year. As a result, the foreign trade deficit reached $5.01 billion, increasing by more than 76%. The ratio of exports to imports, at only 56%, reveals the economy’s critical dependence on foreign goods and energy resources.
“This gap between exports and imports is not just a figure. It is a symptom of structural fatigue. We are too dependent on imports: this applies to fuel, equipment, and industrial components. And until we start investing seriously in local production and processing, this deficit will only grow. On the other hand, exports are currently sustained mainly by agricultural products. But this is not enough to ensure currency stability and financial autonomy,” emphasized the founder of Experts Club.
Despite trade difficulties, Ukraine’s international reserves amounted to $40.15 billion at the beginning of March 2025. Although this figure is 6.7% lower than in January, the main reasons for the decline were currency interventions by the NBU and servicing of public debt. The total amount of public and guaranteed debt at the end of February exceeded $147 billion, of which more than $100 billion was external debt.
Maksym Urakyn believes that the government currently remains capable of meeting its debt obligations, controlling the currency market, and pursuing a balanced macrofinancial policy. However, this achievement is fragile. Without further reforms and without the real sector getting back on track, these reserves could quickly melt away.
Global economy
According to the International Monetary Fund, global economic growth in 2024 was 3.1%, and the forecast for 2025 is 3.2%. However, these figures mask significant regional differences.
According to BEA estimates, the US economy contracted by 0.3% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, the first decline since early 2022. The main factor was rapid growth in imports amid fears of new tariffs, which significantly increased the trade surplus. Inflation, according to the latest data, stood at 2.3% (CPI) and 2.6% (core PCE) in April, the lowest levels in recent years. The Federal Reserve is keeping rates at 5.25–5.5%, waiting to see if things calm down before easing.
The IMF forecasts China’s GDP growth at 4.0% for 2025, although the official target is around 5%. The current low inflation indicates weak domestic demand and the need for structural reforms. In March, at the session of the National People’s Congress, the government announced plans to stimulate the economy through consumer support and reforms, but no clear impetus for the real estate market has yet been provided.
According to the EC’s spring forecast, GDP growth in the European Union will be 1.1% in 2025 and 0.9% in the eurozone. Official statistics for the first quarter showed growth of +0.6% compared to the previous quarter, the best result since 2022. Inflation in the eurozone continues to decline, standing at 1.9% year-on-year in May.
The British economy is showing signs of recovery: GDP grew by 0.7% in the first quarter and by 1.2% compared to a year earlier, with a slight increase of 0.2% in March. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasts that inflation will reach 3.2–3.5% in 2025, falling to the target of 2% only in 2027. The Bank of England has already lowered its base rate from 5.25% to 4.25% and is expected to take two more steps during the year.
At the end of the first quarter of 2025, Turkey’s economic growth is estimated at 2.3%, with annual growth of around 3.0%. Inflation fell to 38–39% in March but remains extremely high and continues to be a priority issue for the Turkish Central Bank.
The Indian economy is showing one of the highest growth rates: GDP in the first quarter of 2025 grew by 7.4% year-on-year, confirming that India remains one of the leaders among large countries. Inflation remains under control: in February, CPI was 3.6% and core CPI was 4.1%.
The Brazilian economy continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace: in March, activity was +3.5% y/y, and in the first quarter, +1.3% q/q, the highest figure in two years. BBVA and OECD forecasts point to a slowdown in growth to 1.6–2.1% in 2025. Inflation in March was 5.48%, the highest level since February 2023, raising concerns about the stability of economic policy.
“The global economy is showing a clear divide: the US is on the brink of recession due to imports and trade uncertainty, but inflation is falling. The EU is struggling with low growth and deflationary risks. The UK is trying to avoid stagnation, although inflationary risks remain. China is in a phase of structural decline and needs reforms. India is a striking example of rapid growth thanks to rural demand and industry. Turkey is once again on the brink of crisis due to inflation. Brazil is stable but vulnerable to inflationary pressures. Ukraine needs to choose a strategy against the backdrop of these global trends: either adapt or risk remaining on a marginal trajectory,” Maxim Urakin concludes.
Conclusion
The macroeconomic situation in Ukraine at the beginning of 2025 is one of cautious stability against a backdrop of growing external challenges. Moderate GDP growth, high inflation, worsening trade imbalances, and stable reserves all contribute to a complex but manageable landscape. Meanwhile, the global economy is showing mixed dynamics, opening up new opportunities for countries that are able to quickly adapt and modernize their economic models.
“For Ukraine, 2025 is a time of transition from mobilization to transformation. If we focus on industrial revival, digitalization, export-oriented clusters, and protection of domestic producers, then the country will be able to embark on a new trajectory of sustainable growth,” concludes Maxim Urakin.
A more detailed analysis of Ukraine’s economic indicators is available in the monthly information and analytical products of the Interfax-Ukraine agency, Economic Monitoring.
Head of the Economic Monitoring project, Candidate of Economic Sciences Maxim Urakin
https://interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1080355.html
Issue No. 1 – June 2025
The purpose of this review is to provide an analysis of the current situation on the Ukrainian currency market and a forecast of the hryvnia exchange rate against key currencies based on the latest data. We consider the current conditions, market dynamics, key influencing factors, and likely scenarios.
Analysis of the current situation on the Ukrainian currency market
The first half of June 2025 saw a continuation of the trend of relative stability in Ukraine’s currency market in the absence of sharp shocks, significant changes, or unexpected exchange rate jumps. At the same time, the market remains in a mode of cautious anticipation on the part of both consumers and operators.
The US dollar exchange rate remains within a controlled range, showing minimal changes within the so-called floating stability. This was made possible by the systemic influence of key factors: high foreign exchange reserves, subdued consumer demand, moderate business activity, and predictable foreign exchange supply.
The euro continued its wave-like dynamics in June, with a tendency to return to growth after a slight correction in May. High sensitivity to the global context, structural demand for the euro in business operations, as well as intensified discussions in Europe on enhancing the role of the euro in the global dimension as a counterweight to the dollar, all keep the EUR/UAH pair in a zone of increased volatility and force us to monitor the EUR/USD pair.
Global context
The first significant signal in June was the European Central Bank’s 25 basis point cut in its base interest rate — the first easing since the start of its tight anti-inflation cycle. The decision was expected and had already been partially priced in, which explains the lack of immediate impact on the euro exchange rate.
At the same time, this move could open a potential cycle of rate cuts in the EU, which could affect the euro’s position in the longer term, especially if the US Federal Reserve remains more conservative. This could create a yield differential in favor of the dollar, potentially reducing the euro’s attractiveness to investors and putting pressure on its exchange rate against the dollar. In such a scenario, the euro risks losing some of its gains in the longer term.
At the same time, the Fed’s key rate remains unchanged in the US, and the institution itself is not giving any clear signals of a cut before the end of the summer. The market perceives this as a sign of internal uncertainty. Forecasting is complicated by the so-called Donald Trump factor, who often makes controversial statements or takes actions that are met with legal opposition, although the general direction of his political approach is already clear, which is a source of new risk expectations: the preservation of a protectionist course, the weakening of the institutional independence of the Fed, and radical financial initiatives. All of these factors, including internal socio-political opposition in the US to the new president’s policies, are fueling a long-term trend of gradual erosion of unconditional trust in the dollar.
Thus, despite the absence of immediate consequences, the positional struggle between the world’s two key currencies, the dollar and the euro, is entering a new phase of strategic review.
Internal context
The National Bank of Ukraine continued its gradual currency liberalization, expanding the list of permitted transactions for banks and businesses. This is evidence of the stabilisation of the domestic currency market, but the real effect of these changes will be assessed not only by the volume of repatriated income, but also by the reaction of potential investors — whether they consider such changes a signal to return capital to Ukraine.
On the other hand, the streamlining of transactions with foreign currency-denominated government bonds, which allowed businesses to circumvent the NBU’s restrictions on currency purchases, is a clear indication of the national regulator’s desire to maintain control over currency transactions and close loopholes for its quasi-legal flow through various channels.
The structure and volume of international support for 2026 remain a key factor of long-term uncertainty. The lack of guarantees of long-term international financing and Ukraine’s unclear implementation of its commitments or their questionable effectiveness could create a dangerous mix of fiscal risks and put pressure on exchange rate expectations. The market and players are naturally beginning to factor these factors into their scenarios.
This may be reflected not only in currency forecasts, but also in the pricing of importers and producers, taking into account the further devaluation of the hryvnia and the desire of the population and businesses to accumulate foreign currency, which will have a wide range of long-term consequences for the stability of the national currency and macroeconomic indicators.
Overall, the situation on the currency market remains calm, but the role of forecast factors is growing, primarily global political risks and long-term expectations regarding financial support. The Ukrainian market is increasingly living in a format of strategic balancing between current stability and future uncertainty.
US dollar exchange rate: dynamics and analysis
In June, the dollar exchange rate against the hryvnia remained stable with a slight downward trend. Over the past 30 days, the average selling rate of the dollar in banks remained at 41.75–41.78 UAH/USD. The buying rate fluctuated around 41.15–41.22 UAH/USD, while the official NBU rate was around 41.50–41.55 UAH/USD.
Over the past week, there has been a slight decline in all three key indicators: the official exchange rate returned to 41.447 UAH/USD, the buying rate to 41.16 UAH/USD, and the selling rate to 41.70 UAH/USD.
The main focus is on spreads: the selling rate has been “pressed” against the official NBU rate for most of the last period, while the buying rate shows greater deviation from it and is moving lower. This indicates that stable demand for cash currency from the population and businesses remains, while operators are reluctant to buy dollars at a higher price. This is evidence that currency market operators do not expect the exchange rate to rise beyond the usual small fluctuations and are not factoring a risk or panic premium into the dollar price. This market behavior signals calm and balance, moderate liquidity, and the absence of psychological pressure factors.
Key influencing factors:
Forecast:
Euro exchange rate: dynamics and analysis
In June, the euro continued its clear upward trend against the hryvnia, remaining the most volatile currency pair on the Ukrainian market. Over the last 30 calendar days, the euro has grown steadily: the average selling rate in banks rose from 46.90 UAH to 48.20–48.30 UAH/EUR as of mid-June. The sharpest movement occurred between June 12 and 13, when the market selling rate jumped by more than 50 kopecks at once and was “caught up” by the official NBU rate the next day. This phenomenon indicates the synchronization of the market and the regulator not only in expectations regarding the further strengthening of the euro, but also in setting prices on the market and the official exchange rate indicator. At the same time, the euro purchase rate by currency market operators showed a more gradual dynamic and did not repeat the growth rate of the selling rate.
As a result, there was a noticeable widening of the spread between buying and selling: from 60–70 kopecks to over 1 UAH. This gap is an indicator of increased nervousness among market operators: in conditions of volatility, financial institutions are trying to protect themselves from exchange rate risks by setting an additional margin as an indicator of expected instability.
Forecast:
• Short term (2–4 weeks): high chances of consolidation within 47.80–48.50 UAH/EUR with situational fluctuations depending on the actions of the NBU, external news, and market sentiment.
• Medium term (2–4 months): in the absence of external shocks, the euro has the potential to grow to 49.00–49.50 UAH/EUR, especially given the structural demand in Ukraine, the transition of many contracts to the euro, and the population’s focus on the new El Dorado, which may bring an exchange rate premium and justify expectations for long-term growth in savings.
• Long term (6+ months): The euro retains its potential for further strengthening, especially in the context of a global restructuring of currency priorities and the internal reorientation of Ukrainian business. However, volatility will remain high, so it is recommended to constantly monitor the share of this currency in portfolios. Given the combination of many factors of uncertainty, we are not publishing a long-term forecast for the euro exchange rate.
Recommendations for businesses and investors
The first half of June shows continued stability in the currency market in the dollar segment and a return to wave-like dynamics in the euro/hryvnia pair. All this is happening against the backdrop of gradual currency liberalization in Ukraine and a new phase of global investor confidence shifting between the dollar and the euro. In such an environment, currency strategy should remain flexible, adaptable, and calculated for several different scenarios.
Liquidity is paramount. All currency assets should be held in instruments that allow for quick response. Term deposits, bonds without early exit options, or pegs to a single currency are potential traps. In the coming months, the focus should be on preserving the ability to maneuver quickly rather than on returns.
The euro — rapid growth has given way to cautious turbulence. After a noticeable jump in June, the market has already factored in most of the news and events significant for the eurozone. If you need to reformat the share of this currency in your portfolio, it is better to do so gradually as spreads narrow.
The dollar remains an important element of protection. Current stability does not mean that the dollar has lost its functions and appeal. On the contrary, in the medium and long term, it is worth keeping it in your portfolio: in the fall or winter, a devaluation trend is likely for the hryvnia, which will reward patient dollar holders with strong nerves.
Spreads are the main marker for decisions. If spreads are stable in the USD/UAH pair, they are widening again in the EUR/UAH pair. This indicates a return of nervousness and uncertainty: when operators build additional margins into the exchange rate, it is a signal not to rush. When the spread narrows, it is time to analyze the entry point.
Fixed currency benchmarks are prohibited. The exchange rate predictability of recent weeks is not a basis for routine actions or excessive optimism. Continue to work with 3–4 exchange rate scenarios and test how your asset structure will perform under each of them.
Hryvnia — do not hold more than necessary. It is stable for now, but excessive accumulation of hryvnia creates risks. Hryvnia holdings in excess of operating reserves should be converted into any of the reliable currencies or instruments pegged to them.
Currency liberalization is more of a signal than a call to action. The NBU’s signals about easing restrictions are important, but so far this is more of a symbolic step. The real effect will be noticeable closer to the fall. Investors and businesses should not only monitor liberalization steps but also bear in mind the possibility of the regulator reversing its actions if the exchange rate scenario forces it to return to restrictions. It may be worth considering switching to currency instruments that are least dependent on government actions, such as cash or stablecoins based on reliable currencies.
This material has been prepared by the company’s analysts and reflects their expert, analytical, and professional judgment. The information presented in this review is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation for action.
The company and its analysts make no representations and assume no responsibility for any consequences arising from the use of this information.
All information is provided “as is,” without any additional guarantees of completeness, commitment to timeliness, or updates or additions. Users of this material should independently assess the risks and make informed decisions based on their own assessment and analysis of the situation from various available sources that they themselves consider sufficiently qualified.
Before making any investment decisions, we recommend consulting with an independent financial advisor.
REFERENCE
KYT Group is an international multi-service FinTech company that has been successfully operating in the non-bank financial services market for 16 years. One of the company’s flagship activities is currency exchange. KYT Group is one of the largest operators in this segment of the Ukrainian financial market, is included in the list of the largest taxpayers, and is one of the industry leaders in terms of asset growth and equity capital.
More than 90 branches in 16 major cities of Ukraine are located in convenient locations for customers and are equipped with modern equipment for the convenience, security, and confidentiality of each transaction.
The company’s activities comply with the regulatory requirements of the National Bank of Ukraine. KYT Group adheres to EU standards of operation, with branches in Poland and plans for cross-border expansion into other European countries.
Nine drivers have already had their driving privileges revoked for violating military registration requirements this year. Almost all of the decisions were made by the Novograd-Volynsky City District Court in Zhytomyr Oblast. Since the beginning of this year, 59 more cases have been heard in courts regarding the revocation of driving licenses due to violations of military registration.
At least 59 court cases regarding the restriction of driving privileges due to violations of military registration rules this year were found using the Babusia court registry search engine.
In January 2025, the court upheld the TCC’s claim for the first time and deprived the driver of his right to drive, but such decisions have become more frequent. Currently, nine drivers have been temporarily restricted from driving vehicles due to violations of military registration rules until they comply with the TCC’s requirements or until the requirement is withdrawn.
It should be noted that all decisions, except for the first one, were made by the Novograd-Volynsky City District Court in Zhytomyr Oblast.
We remind you that court decisions in such cases are completely anonymized — they do not indicate the parties to the proceedings, which makes it impossible to check whether there is a case against you.
Since the beginning of the year, more than 17,000 proceedings have been opened in the Unified State Register of Debtors for violations of military registration rules. You can check whether you have a fine in OpenDataBot.
https://opendatabot.ua/analytics/tck-auto-ban
