Ukraine’s economic growth will continue in 2024 on the back of expanding domestic demand and a further recovery in seaborne exports, but it will fall to 3.9% from around 5.5% last year due to the high base effect created by the past strong agricultural season, international rating agency S&P Global Ratings forecast.
“Absent a significant escalation of the war, we forecast Ukraine’s economy to grow by about 4-5% on average over the medium term, but a recovery to pre-war levels is unlikely in the foreseeable future,” it said in its release on Saturday night as it downgraded Ukraine’s long-term foreign currency rating to ‘CC’ from ‘CCC’ with a negative outlook amid an expected Eurobond restructuring.
S&P estimates that average annual inflation will fall to around 7% this year from 12.8% last year, but it will pick up in the second half of this year amid weakening base effect, recovering domestic demand and moderate currency depreciation.
The agency expects the hryvnia to depreciate to 41.02 UAH/$1 at the end of this year and to 43.89/$1 at the end of next year.
S&P emphasizes that the development of the war with Russia continues to shape Ukraine’s macroeconomic outlook. It is unclear how the war may evolve, but we believe a military stalemate without any major changes on the front lines remains the most likely scenario as both sides resign themselves to a protracted war. The prospect of any negotiated peace plan seems unlikely. As a result, we assume that the active phase of the war will last until the end of this year, and most likely beyond,” the document says.
The agency recalls that Russian troops have occupied about 15% of Ukraine’s territory, which accounts for about 8-9% of its pre-war GDP, 14% of industrial and 10% of agricultural production. Almost a third of Ukraine’s population has been displaced and about 15% have fled the country and are now refugees living mainly in the EU.
Nevertheless, according to S&P’s baseline scenario, the Ukrainian government and the NBU will maintain their administrative capacity even in the face of serious military attacks.
Given the significant damage to physical and human capital, Ukraine’s medium-term economic prospects are subject to a high degree of uncertainty, the agency notes. In its view, the key factors determining the country’s recovery prospects are the evolution of the war, post-war demographics and labor market profile, as well as the effectiveness of reconstruction efforts and continued international support.
S&P notes a high degree of uncertainty about the scope, outcome and consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war. In its view, regardless of the duration of hostilities, the associated risks are likely to persist for some time.
As reported, the National Bank of Ukraine in January estimated the country’s GDP growth in 2023 at 5.7% and maintained its 2024 growth forecast at 3.6%, slightly worsening it for 2025 – from 6.0% to 5.8%.
The government, when approving the draft state budget for the second reading in early November 2023, improved last year’s GDP growth estimate from 2.8% to 5%, but worsened it for 2024 from 5% to 4.6%.
Polish border guards have passed information to the Ukrainian side that Polish farmers plan to temporarily stop blocking traffic at the checkpoint “Krakivets” until March 13, said the speaker of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine Andriy Demchenko.
“But whether it will be observed, whether before the 13th actually unblock the direction of the checkpoint “Krakovets” – we will see,” – said Demchenko on air telethon.
He pointed out that as of the morning of March 9, 2300 trucks are in queues at the border in all directions. The most difficult situation, according to Demchenko, opposite the checkpoint “Yagodin” and “Shegini”.
“In fact, there farmers do not let trucks traveling towards Poland through at all,” Demchenko noted.
Dynamics of changes in discount rate of NBU – from 2013 to 2023
Source: Open4Business.com.ua and experts.news
The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine has approved the procedure for the use of funds for partial compensation to agrarians for the purchase of agricultural machinery of domestic production, Prime Minister Denis Shmygal said.
“This year we allocate UAH 1 billion for the program of partial compensation to agrarians who buy agricultural machinery of our Ukrainian production. We will compensate 25% of the cost. We approve today the appropriate procedure for the use of funds and improve some elements of this program,” Shmygal said at a government meeting on Friday.
Ot noted that according to the estimates of the Ministry of Economy, the program will allow to double the share of domestic agricultural machinery in the domestic market.
“Imports will decrease by about 10%. Re-equipment of 4.5 thousand producers will take place. About 1 thousand additional jobs will be created, which in turn will give more taxes to the budget,” – said Prime Minister.
AGRARIANS, CABINET OF MINISTERS, COMPENSATION, purchase of agricultural machinery
Volodymyr Zelensky has arrived in Istanbul to meet with Turkish head of state Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
The airplane with the Ukrainian leader and his accompanying delegation on board landed at Ataturk Airport, Turkish media reported.
As part of the visit of the Ukrainian delegation, Zelensky will meet with President Erdogan. A joint statement of the two leaders is expected to be signed following the talks.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) fined ODO SK “Premier Garant Profi” in the amount of UAH 595 thousand for violation of requirements in the field of financial monitoring.
As reported on the website of the regulator, the fine was imposed for improper performance by the institution of duties in full to submit to the requests of the National Bank reliable information, documents, copies, extracts from documents relating to the implementation of the institution of the requirements of the legislation in the field of prevention and counteraction to legalization (laundering) of proceeds of crime, financing of terrorism and financing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.
In addition, the fine was imposed for violation in terms of non-compliance of the institution with the requirements of the content of contracts concluded with agents, as well as in terms of the company’s failure to take measures to obtain the permission of the head of the institution to establish business relations in respect of clients whose ultimate beneficial owner is a politically exposed person.
As reported, earlier in January this year, the NBU has already fined SK “Premier Garant Profi” in the amount of UAH 51 thousand for violation of requirements in the field of financial monitoring.
IC “Premier Garant Profi” was registered in 2011. Specializes in risk insurance. According to the company’s data, its shareholder is Elena Ermolova owns 99.99% of the company indirectly through LLC “Alpha Lex LTD”.
