Business news from Ukraine

Business news from Ukraine

Parliament introduces 10% duty on soybean and rapeseed exports

The Verkhovna Rada has supported a bill to introduce a 10% export duty on soybeans, kohlrabi and rapeseed (crushed and uncrushed) with an annual 1% reduction in the rate by 2030, to 5%, MP Serhiy Labaziuk (For the Future parliamentary faction) said in a telegram channel.

The MP added that at the same time a special fund will be created – the State Fund for Support of Agricultural Producers, which, given the existing export volumes (without adjustment for a 10% decrease in value/volumes) of oilseeds, will amount to almost $500 million.

“But with the increase in processing, changes in export prices, and a decrease in the volume of raw materials, revenues will fall. And it will be difficult not to give part of the revenues to the state budget. Therefore, if we manage to raise UAH 3-5 billion for the fund, it will be a victory,” Labaziuk said.

MP Oleksiy Honcharenko (European Solidarity faction) clarified in a Telegram that 245 MPs supported the draft law.

“This is just a shame. They sneaked in the draft law on industrial pollution – duties for farmers. They promised to serve the people, but they serve schemes,” he commented on the document.

As reported, the “soybean amendments” are changes to the Tax Code of Ukraine introduced at the end of 2017. They concerned the procedure for VAT (value-added tax) refunds for soybean and rapeseed exports.

For several years in a row, Stepan Kapshuk, CEO of the Ukroliyaprom association, proposed to ban the export of 50% of the rapeseed crop from the country to increase the utilization of Ukrainian processing capacities, which, in particular in 2024, were significantly short of raw materials.

Subsequently, Dmytro Kysylevskyi, deputy chairman of the parliamentary committee on economic development, prepared draft law No. 13134, which, with amendment No. 40, provided for the introduction of a 10% export duty on rapeseed and soybeans. He argued that Ukrainian soybean and rapeseed processing plants are underutilized by 35%, and if they are used, Ukraine will receive an additional UAH 7.3 billion in state budget revenues to finance the Armed Forces, and an additional $238 million will allow for the construction of dozens of plants and the creation of thousands of new jobs.

A number of associations criticized the idea of the draft law “On Amendments to the Tax Code of Ukraine on Expanding Patient Access to Medicines Subject to Procurement by a Person Authorized to Make Procurement in the Healthcare Sector by Concluding Managed Access Agreements”, which provided for the imposition of duties on the export of soybeans and rapeseed from Ukraine. According to the business associations, they are discriminatory towards small and medium-sized producers, aim to increase the profits of processors at the expense of small and medium-sized farmers and violate the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement.

On June 18, the Verkhovna Rada did not support this initiative.

 

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Overview and forecast of hryvnia exchange rate against key currencies from KYT Group analysts

Issue No. 1 – July 2025

The purpose of this review is to provide an analysis of the current situation on the Ukrainian currency market and a forecast of the hryvnia exchange rate against key currencies based on the latest data. We analyze current conditions, market dynamics, key influencing factors, and likely scenarios.

Analysis of the current situation on the Ukrainian currency market: July opens a new stage for currency strategy

The beginning of the second half of 2025 brings a number of systemic signals that may affect the long-term currency strategy of both governments and private investors.

On a global level, the US dollar is losing its status as an absolute “safe haven currency”: according to Goldman Sachs, it is increasingly behaving like a risky asset, falling along with stock markets and bonds. This undermines its attractiveness in the eyes of investors and changes the logic of foreign exchange reserves: the dollar’s share of global foreign reserves is declining, while the euro, franc, and pound are growing. All these changes are not yet dramatic, but they are no longer random.

In Ukraine, the foreign exchange market is welcoming July with an increase in demand for cash and a shift in the focus of the population from the dollar to the euro. In June, Ukrainians bought $577 million worth of euros, exceeding dollar sales by only $44 million: the euro’s share of demand dominates the dollar, especially in the cash segment. Ukrainians are trying to catch the upward trend of the euro to increase their savings.

The Index of Devaluation Expectations of Ukrainians rose to 139.3 points, indicating a gradual return of nervousness at the household level. Unless there are strong, stable signals that the hryvnia’s support potential remains, Ukrainians’ sentiment may become a key source of pressure on the hryvnia, and household demand may become a driver of the devaluation trend. The combination of these factors may lead to restrictive measures on foreign exchange transactions by the banking regulator or foreign exchange market participants themselves.

At the same time, the fundamental stability of the hryvnia is maintained thanks to a strong resource of external support: in June, Ukraine received more than $4 billion in foreign exchange assistance, which allowed the NBU to increase its reserves to $45.1 billion, despite almost $3 billion in foreign exchange interventions. This allows the NBU to maintain control over the exchange rate without strict restrictions, while gradually testing options for currency liberalization.

The intersection of these factors is a new phase of currency positioning. The strategies that worked in 2022-2024 no longer guarantee stability. The dollar is no longer a “reinforced concrete base,” although it retains a key settlement role in international trade, including for Ukraine, and the euro is gaining weight even without fundamental advantages. However, the European Union, which faces the risk of trade duties being imposed by the US administration, may sooner or later use mechanisms to rebalance the euro against the dollar to offset the exchange rate factor of rising duties and maintain the price attractiveness and competitiveness of European exports. This demonstrates that the current trends are only signs of changes that could reverse in the opposite direction if significant circumstances change.

The foreign exchange market is increasingly becoming a field of scenario planning that requires flexibility, the ability to maneuver quickly, and the rejection of rigid exchange rate fixes.

Special attention should be paid to tracking the volume and dynamics of assistance from Ukraine’s international financial and security partners – the government has officially announced a shortfall of more than $40 billion in external financing in 2026. However, the apparent intensification of international efforts to provide military and economic support to Ukraine suggests that this gap will be largely compensated, thus guaranteeing macroeconomic and exchange rate stability. For this reason, we currently assess the risks of devaluation as moderate, and the long-term position of the hryvnia will depend less on the market and more on the architecture of fiscal policy and external support.

The domestic currency market will be in a state of rebalancing, taking into account domestic and global processes.

US dollar exchange rate: dynamics and analysis

In July, the US dollar exchange rate against the hryvnia continued to demonstrate stability, with a slight correction within a narrow range.

During the first few weeks of the month, the market remained in a stable corridor: the average purchase rate by banks was around UAH 41.55/$, and the sale rate was UAH 42.05-42.06/$, with situational drops to UAH 41.95/$. The official exchange rate fluctuated between 41.8 and 41.83 UAH/$. Its proximity to market indicators indicates that there is a consensus between the market and the regulator’s policy and that the balance of supply and demand is maintained.

Spreads between the bid and ask rates, as well as the approximately equal deviation of these values from the NBU’s official rate, remain stable. This indicates that there is no imbalance in the market or nervousness among market participants. The market does not generate additional risk premiums or precautionary measures, which indicates that the predictable situation remains and that there is no speculative pressure.

Key influencing factors:

  • Stable interventionist policy of the NBU. The regulator continues to sell foreign currency moderately ($3 billion in June) amid rising reserves to $45.1 billion, which keeps the official and market exchange rates within controlled limits.
  • Sufficient inflow of foreign currency into the country. More than $4 billion in aid from partners in June (Canada, the EU, and the World Bank) fully offset interventions and debt repayments, maintaining a stable sufficient reserve.
  • Weakening of the dollar on the global market. In the second quarter, the dollar depreciated by more than 7%, which eased external pressure on the hryvnia and partially shifted the interest of Ukrainian players toward the euro.
  • Behavioral shift among citizens. NBU data show a decline in interest in the dollar among the population: net purchases in June amounted to only $44 million against $276 million in euro equivalent.

Forecast:

  • In the short term (2-4 weeks), the hryvnia will remain in the range of UAH 41.40-42.10/$ in the absence of external shocks or surges in demand from importers.
  • In the medium term (2-4 months), the hryvnia is likely to gradually move up to 42.20-42.80 UAH/$ in the event of increased domestic budget spending, seasonal demand, or rising devaluation expectations of the population and economic agents.
  • Longer term (6+ months): We see no prerequisites for a slowdown or decline in external aid, so the trend of a smooth controlled devaluation of the hryvnia to the level of UAH 43.00-44.50/$ looks most realistic in the absence of unforeseen factors. The NBU’s exchange rate policy and the government’s rhetoric on macroeconomic policy in 2026 may be a deterrent to devaluation.

Euro exchange rate: dynamics and analysis

In July, the euro exchange rate against the hryvnia demonstrated a high sensitivity to external conditions, in particular to the global weakening of the dollar. After a prolonged rise, the euro slightly corrected in the short term after the local peak: the buying rate dropped from 48.85 to 48.62 UAH/€, the selling rate from 49.55 to 49.22 UAH/€, and the official rate from 49.02 to 48.90 UAH/€. The correction was accompanied by a gradual narrowing of the bid-ask spread, which may indicate that expectations have stabilized after a wave of strong demand from the population.

Key influencing factors:

  • Global dollar weakness: The euro strengthened amid a drop in the dollar index (DXY) of more than 10% since the beginning of the year and active reserve flows towards the euro and other reserve assets. According to the IMF, the euro’s share of official reserves rose to 20.1%, the highest since the end of 2022.
  • Demand from the population: In June, Ukrainians significantly increased their purchases of cash euros, which supports the euro’s exchange rate in the domestic market.
  • Uneven fluctuations: after rapid growth in June, the market partially recorded profits, which led to a slight correction in July. This is a classic phase of market adaptation after overbought.

Forecast:

  • In the short term (2-4 weeks), the hryvnia is expected to fluctuate between 48.40 and 49.30 UAH/€, without breaking through the 49.50 level, provided there are no new external shocks.
  • In the medium term (2-4 months), the hryvnia is likely to move to the levels of 49.50-50.20 UAH/€ in the event of further dollar depreciation or increased demand for the euro as an alternative reserve currency.
  • Longer-term (6+ months): The baseline scenario envisages smooth movement in the range of UAH 50.00-51.50 with increased volatility, given the political uncertainty in the EU after the elections and the continuation of the global trend of de-dollarization.

In general, the euro market in Ukraine is showing clear signs of stabilization, as evidenced by lower volatility on short (1-2 weeks) and longer (3-4 weeks) time frames, as well as a noticeable narrowing of bid-ask spreads, which in the cash segment decreased from UAH 2-2.5 to 60-80 kopecks per euro in the quarter alone. Market operators have gotten used to the euro’s movements, and they do not take excessive insurance against its growth or decline. Finally, another sign of market stabilization and exchange rate consensus between operators and the regulator is the fact that market buying and selling rates for euros remain relatively stable and insignificantly different from the official NBU rate.

Recommendations for businesses and investors

The current situation in the FX market is a transition to a new positioning regime. The main conclusion is that flexibility and scenario planning should be the basis of the currency strategy in the second half of 2025.

Liquidity comes first

Maintain the ability to react quickly: assets should be either fully liquid or easily transferable between instruments. Time deposits, bonds without early redemption, and a single-currency strategy are dangerous traps in an unstable environment. The focus is not on yield, but on mobility.

The euro is a new favorite, but no longer overheated

The euro’s share of demand from households and businesses has grown significantly, but the market is gradually entering a stabilization phase. The best strategy is to gradually reassess the share of euros in your portfolio, especially if your operating model is tied to this currency. After a wave of strong demand, it’s time for consolidation.

The dollar retains the function of basic protection

Despite the global weakening, the dollar remains an important backstop in the event of unforeseen events and does not lose liquidity and importance as a global universal settlement instrument. Maintain its share in your portfolio, especially in case of autumn and winter devaluation scenarios or weakening of foreign aid. It may not show rapid growth, but it will not fall quickly and deeply when everything else is falling.

Spreads are an indicator of market expectations

Narrowing spreads are a signal of stabilization. Widening is a sign of nervousness. In the USD/UAH pair, spreads remain stable, while in the EUR/UAH pair, they fluctuate. This is a hint for action: do not rush into transactions when the spread is wide, and use the narrow spread as a moment to optimize.

Give up on fixed “benchmarks”

Fixed rates or “psychological marks” (such as 42 or 50 UAH) are a trap. For forecasting, focus on ranges rather than absolute numbers at the moment. Test your currency structure for various scenarios – from restrained devaluation to situational revaluation, and don’t forget to include scenarios of key currency movements in international markets in your model.

Hryvnia for operational needs only

Even a stable hryvnia is a currency with limited savings potential. Don’t keep more than you need for current expenses. The surplus should be converted into hard currencies or instruments pegged to them.

Currency liberalization is a marker, not a guideline

The current signals of easing currency restrictions are just a “ground test” by the NBU. Real changes are likely to come no sooner than the fall. Until then, you should remain cautious. Avoid taking steps based only on the “expected” easing of the rules – this is a trap. Consider instruments that are less dependent on the decisions of the regulator or banks (e.g., cash or euro- or dollar-based stablecoins).

Keep your focus on changes in the news

The macroeconomic and exchange rate indicators that the government and the NBU will include in the draft budget for 2026 should be the closest benchmark. This is a marker of exchange rate policy and expectations that will determine market behavior and forecast likely exchange rate trajectories.

This material has been prepared by the company’s analysts and reflects their expert, analytical professional judgment. The information presented in this review is for informational purposes only and cannot be considered as a recommendation for action.

The Company and its analysts make no representations and assume no liability for any consequences arising from the use of this information. All information is provided “as is” without any additional guarantees of completeness, obligations of timeliness or updates or additions.

Users of this material should make their own risk assessments and informed decisions based on their own evaluation and analysis of the situation from various available sources that they consider to be sufficiently qualified. We recommend that you consult an independent financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

REFERENCE

KYT Group is an international multi-service product FinTech platform that has been successfully operating in the non-banking financial services market for 16 years. One of the company’s flagship activities is currency exchange. KYT Group is one of the largest operators in this segment of the financial market of Ukraine, is included in the list of the largest taxpayers, and is one of the industry leaders in terms of asset growth and equity.

More than 90 branches in 16 major cities of Ukraine are located in convenient locations for customers and have modern equipment for the convenience, security and confidentiality of each transaction.

The company’s activities comply with the regulatory requirements of the NBU. KYT Group adheres to EU standards, having a branch in Poland and planning cross-border expansion to European countries.

 

IFC to cover risks of Credit Agricole for EUR 100 mln

The International Finance Corporation (IFC) will cover the risks of Credit Agricole Bank (Kyiv) for EUR 100 million on new business loans in various sectors of the economy – agribusiness, manufacturing, energy and logistics, as well as to support Ukraine’s energy security.

According to the bank’s website, a EUR 100 million risk-sharing agreement to boost lending to medium and large businesses in the agribusiness, manufacturing, energy and logistics sectors, as well as to support energy security, was signed on July 11, 2025.

About 30% of the loan funds are planned to be used to finance small-scale renewable energy projects, the implementation of climate-smart solutions in agriculture, and energy efficiency measures.

The program is being implemented with the financial support of the French government, the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, and the UK Department for International Development under the World Bank Group’s Guarantee Facility.

According to the National Bank of Ukraine, as of April 1, 2025, Credit Agricole Bank ranked 11th in terms of total assets among 60 banks in the country – UAH 119.6 billion, or 3.2% of the market.

 

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Varus invests UAH 150 mln in solar energy

Grocery supermarket chain Varus will invest UAH 150 million in the installation of rooftop solar power plants (SPP) at 48 of its 115 facilities, the Ukrainian Council of Shopping Centers (UCC) has reported.

According to the report, the total capacity of the SPP will reach 4.8 thousand kWh, which will generate more than 5 million kW of electricity per year. The payback period of the project is estimated at two years.

The planned generation will amount to 21% of the annual consumption of supermarkets, with annual savings of UAH 50 million. It is noted that the company has chosen the model of direct consumption of generated energy due to the high cost of storage systems. The SPP will cover 95% of supermarkets’ electricity needs during the day.

The company plans to further expand the project to the entire supermarket chain and explore the possibility of installing gas diesel generators.

As reported, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has issued a $25 million loan to Varus for the reconstruction and modernization of equipment in existing stores, lease of a new warehouse, and installation of a solar power plant to reduce dependence on the grid.

Varus is a national supermarket chain represented on the Ukrainian grocery retail market by Omega. The chain’s first store was opened in 2003 in Dnipro, and the total number of its stores is 114 in different cities of Ukraine, including a DarkStore in Kyiv. The chain operates in several formats: classic supermarkets, To Go stores and the online store varus.ua.

According to Opendatabot, the owner of Omega LLC is Cyprus-based Weigant Enterprises Limited, with Valeriy Kiptyk and Ruslan Shostak listed as the ultimate beneficiaries.

According to the company’s financial results for 2024, its revenue increased by 14.3% compared to the previous year and amounted to UAH 20 billion. The company’s net profit decreased by 80.9% to UAH 38.2 million.

 

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National Bank fines Aventus Ukraine LLC

The National Bank of Ukraine has fined Aventus Ukraine LLC 2.448 million hryvnia for violations identified during an inspection.

According to the NBU website, this measure was taken for violating the requirements of the Law “On Consumer Lending” and the provisions on establishing additional requirements for interaction with consumers of financial services and other persons in the settlement of overdue debts (ethical conduct requirements).

Aventus Ukraine LLC is required to pay the fine within one month of the date this decision comes into force.

Furthermore, the company received a written warning from the regulator for violating the requirements of the Law “On Consumer Lending,” the provisions on licensing and registration of financial service providers and the conditions for their activities in the provision of financial services, and the provisions on the authorization of financial service providers and the conditions for their activities in the provision of financial services.

Aventus Ukraine LLC must take measures to eliminate the causes and conditions that contributed to these violations.
These decisions were made by the Committee for Supervision and Regulation of Non-Bank Financial Services Markets on July 14, 2025, based on the results of scheduled inspections.

Aventus Ukraine LLC was registered in January 2017. The company’s authorized capital is UAH 20 million.

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ECA supported exports by UAH 885 mln in June

In June 2025, the Export Credit Agency (ECA) supported UAH 885.5 million of exports by insuring 11 loans worth UAH 106.4 million issued by Ukrainian banks to entrepreneurs to fulfill export contracts.

According to the ECA website, the agency’s largest partners among banks in this period were Oschadbank (UAH 64.4 million in financing), Creditwest Bank (UAH 20 million), and Pivdenny Bank (UAH 20 million).

In June, exporters in Odesa region (UAH 386.7 million of future export revenues), Kyiv (UAH 232.8 million), and Dnipropetrovs’k region (UAH 153 million) were the most likely to use ECA services.

The largest contracts during this period were for the supply of Ukrainian goods to Switzerland, Estonia, and the Czech Republic, and the most popular export commodity groups were flour, wood products, and ferrous metal products.

The Export Credit Agency of Ukraine (ECA) is a government agency that supports non-resource exports by insuring the risks of enterprises and banks. The agency insures foreign trade contracts, export credits, bank guarantees, and investment loans against war risks.

 

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