Dynamics of changes in discount rate of NBU
NBU , graphics of the Club of Experts
Most of the stock indices of the largest Asian countries are falling on Wednesday.
Markets continue to be negatively affected by the threat of a recession in the global economy against the backdrop of persistently high inflation and tightening of monetary policy by major central banks, writes MarketWatch.
The International Monetary Fund on the eve worsened its forecast for global economic growth next year to 2.7% compared to 2.9% expected in July. At the same time, it is noted that the risks of a recession are especially high for Europe due to a sharp increase in energy prices.
China’s Shanghai Composite index fell 1.1% by 8:32 a.m. The Hong Kong Hang Seng shed 2.1%, falling for the fifth consecutive trading and is at its lowest level in the last 11 years.
Among the leaders of the decline in quotations on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange are securities of the owner of the restaurant chain Haidilao International Holding Ltd. (-7%), Budweiser Brewing Co. APAC Ltd. (-5.9%), casino operator Sands China Ltd. (-5.7%), developer Country Garden Holdings Co. (-5.6%).
Shares of Internet retailers Alibaba Group and JD.com fell 4.5% and 1.1%, respectively, while Internet giant Tencent Holdings Ltd. – by 2.2%, automakers Geely and BYD – by 3.1% and 0.5% respectively.
Among the components of Hang Seng, only three companies show an increase in value: insurer AIA (+0.7%), aluminum producer China Hongqiao Group Ltd. (+0.2%) and pharmaceutical CSPC Pharmaceutical Group Ltd. (+0.1%). Share price of China Mobile Ltd. is at the close of the previous day.
The value of the Japanese Nikkei 225 fell by 0.06% by 8:27 Moscow time.
The volume of orders for basic manufacturing equipment in Japan, an indicator of capital expenditure for the next 3-6 months, fell 5.8% in August compared to the previous month, the country’s cabinet said in a statement. This was the worst result in the last six months. Analysts, on average, had expected a contraction of just 2.3%, according to Trading Economics.
The leaders of the decline in quotations are papers of Tokyo Electron Ltd. (-4%), Pacific Metals Co. (-3.5%) and Mitsubishi Motors Corp. (-3.5%).
Meanwhile, the value of retailers Seven & I Holdings Co. is rising. (+3.7%) and Aeon Co. (+3.5%), as well as railway operators West Japan Railway Co. (+2.8%) and Central Japan Railway Co. (+2.5%).
The Australian S&P/ASX 200 fell 1.5%.
The capitalization of the world’s largest mining companies BHP and Rio Tinto fell by 1% and 1.9%, respectively
Meanwhile, the South Korean Kospi index increased by 0.35% by 8:27 Moscow time.
Quotes of securities of one of the world’s largest manufacturers of chips and electronics Samsung Electronics Co. rise by 0.9%, while the cost of automaker Hyundai Motor fell by 0.3%.
The Bank of Korea on Wednesday raised the base interest rate by 0.5 percentage points – up to 3% per annum, which coincided with the expectations of experts. The cost of lending has been increased for the eighth time since August 2021.
The Central Bank predicts that inflation in the country will peak in October, but will remain quite high in the near future – more than 5%, at least until the end of the first quarter of 2023. South Korea’s GDP is expected to increase by 2.6% in 2022, and by 2.1% next year.
The average price of 1 square meter in the cottage towns of Kyiv as of October 1, 2022, according to the consulting company “RealExpo” and the suburban real estate portal www.zagorodna.com, was UAH 58,489, which is UAH 24,970. more than in January. The price increase in hryvnias since the beginning of the year was 74.49%.
This growth is associated with a 51% increase in the dollar since the beginning of the year, a 50% increase in the cost of construction materials. The real value of a square minus the rising dollar in hryvnias increased by +23.49% over 9 months.
As for the cost in the cottage villages of Kyiv, according to Viktor Kovalenko, the director of the CC “RealExpo” and the head of the portal www.zagorodna.com, “built cottage towns and apartments in new buildings put a lot of pressure on it.”
Average cost in cottage towns of Kyiv,
January-September 2022, UAH/sq.m
(according to www.zagorodna.com)
District of Kyiv January September
Holosiivskyi 43451 76324
Darnytskyi 23356 43747
Desnyanskyi 20440 30688
Dniprovsky 22929
Obolonsky 39854
Pechersky 60300
Podolsky 54411 91039
Svyatoshinsky 28297 46397
Solomianskyi 26550 50392
MIDDLE 33519 58489
The minimum cost of 1 square meter. m – UAH 20,550. in the built townhouses “Pyrogovo” on the street Laureatska, 102 in Holosiivsky district.
The maximum cost of 1 sq.m. m – UAH 150,000. in the ready KM “Konyk” on the street Lyutnev in the Holosiiv district.
The leader in terms of the average cost of a “square” in the cottage villages of Kyiv is Podilsky district (91,039 UAH). The average cost has increased by 67.3% since the beginning of the year; in second place – Holosiivskyi district (76,324 hryvnias). The price per square meter in the district has increased by 75.65% since the beginning of the year; in third place – Solomyansky district (50,392 hryvnias), the average price per square meter has increased by 89.8% since January.
In the Dnipro district, the average cost of a “square” is the lowest in Kyiv – UAH 22,929.
The average price per square meter in the cottage towns of Kyiv varied depending on the type of real estate. As of 01/10/2022, it looked like this:
The cost of types of real estate in cottage towns of Kyiv,
UAH/sq.m, January-September 2022
Property type January September
Duplex 25829 36989
Townhouse 28164 52944
Quadrex 47369 93717
Cottage 41817 64203
“Square” in quadrexes turned out to be the most expensive, since there are only 2 towns with quadrexes, and the price in one of them is very high and affects the average cost.
In second place in terms of cost are cottages (64,203 UAH). Their cost is 21.27% more expensive than a square meter in townhouses. A square meter in townhouses is 43.13% more expensive than in duplexes.
The average price per square meter in the cottage towns of Kyiv varied depending on the state of construction/readiness. As of 01/10/2022, it looked like this:
The average price per square meter in the cottage towns of Kyiv varied depending on the state of construction/readiness. As of 01/10/2022, it looked like this:
under construction – UAH 58,005;
built – UAH 59,835.
The average cost of a “square” in built towns is 3.15% more expensive than in towns under construction.
Conclusions:
The growth of prices in the cottage towns of Kyiv is influenced by:
– lack of solvent demand;
– lack of buyer-investors;
– increase in the dollar rate;
– the increase in the cost of construction materials and the increase in the price of logistics;
– fuel price increase;
– migration processes;
– labor shortage;
– unpredictability of war;
– difficult economic situation and inflation;
– lack of lending to developers;
– destruction of the installment mechanism
The price of a “square” depends on the location: the closer to the center of Kyiv, the more expensive it is; depending on the type of real estate: “square” townhouses are cheaper, cottages are more expensive; from the state of construction: in built towns, the cost of a “square” is higher than in towns under construction.
Buy and sell cottages and townhouses in Kyiv on the suburban real estate portal zagorodna.com
Author: Viktor Kovalenko, director of the RealExpo consulting company
Another seven ships with 177,500 tonnes of foodstuffs left the Ukrainian ports of Odesa, Pivdenny and Chornomorsk on Tuesday for the countries of Africa, Asia and Europe, the Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine has reported.
“In particular, among the ships leaving the Ukrainian ports is the bulk carrier Sea Pearl J, which will deliver 30,000 tonnes of wheat to Tunisia,” the ministry said on its Facebook page.
Five ships were sent from the port of Chornomorsk: Hazar S, Sea Pearl J, Ince Evrenye, Milina, Magnum Power, while Lucky Trader and Erdek departed from Odesa and Pivdenny, respectively.
In general, since the launch of the first ship with Ukrainian food, 7 million tonnes of foodstuffs have been exported, and the number of ships with food sent to Asia, Europe and Africa has reached 316.
The dollar is moderately declining against the euro, but growing against the Japanese yen, renewing its maximum value in 24 years.
The ICE-calculated index, which shows the performance of the US dollar against six currencies (the euro, Swiss franc, yen, Canadian dollar, pound sterling and the Swedish krona), is practically unchanged on Wednesday morning, as is the broader WSJ Dollar.
The euro/dollar pair is trading at $0.9721 by 8:52 p.m. compared to $0.9707 at the close of the session on Tuesday, the euro adds about 0.1%.
Meanwhile, the rate of the American currency against the yen rose by almost 0.3% and amounted to 146.25 yen compared to 145.86 yen the day before. This is the highest rate since August 1998. The last time the yen fell to a 24-year low at the end of September, after which the Japanese Ministry of Finance intervened in the foreign exchange market to support the national currency.
The dollar is strengthening against the yen due to mixed monetary policy rates: while the Fed is actively raising interest rates, the Bank of Japan continues to adhere to extremely soft monetary policy.
The pound rose 0.4% to $1.1012 compared to $1.0968 at the close of the previous session.
Traders are evaluating conflicting signals about the Bank of England’s emergency government bond purchase program.
British Central Bank Chairman Andrew Bailey said that the regulator will complete the purchase of bonds on Friday, as planned. “The essence of interventions to stabilize financial markets is partly that this is a temporary phenomenon,” he said.
However, the Financial Times then wrote, citing three anonymous sources, that the Central Bank privately hinted to representatives of some banks about the possibility of extending the bond purchase program in order to protect UK pension funds from losses.
The government of Ukraine has included participation in approximately 70 foreign exhibitions in the list of works and services, for import operations of which the National Bank is recommended to ensure the implementation of transfers, the Ministry of Economy has reported.
“The list, drawn up based on the results of a dialogue with industry associations and enterprises, includes about 70 specific exhibitions that will be held abroad in autumn 2022 – spring 2023. For example: Ukrainian Infrastructure Forum of Strategy Council in London, Fruit Logistica in Berlin, Agrotech 2023 in Polish Kielce,” the ministry said on its website.
There is also an opportunity for Ukrainian manufacturers to participate in international exhibitions of the furniture industry, international medical and pharmaceutical exhibitions.
The Ministry of Economy recalled that in September, Ukrainian exports of goods rose to a record high since the beginning of the war: $4.114 billion.
