The draft law proposed by the Ministry of Finance “On Amendments to the Tax Code of Ukraine Regarding the Registration of Single Tax Payers as Value Added Tax Payers,” which changes the system for sole proprietors by introducing VAT for them, eliminates the very philosophy of the simplified taxation system, according to Taras Onishchenko, partner at the law firm Barristers Commercial.
“The proposed changes effectively eliminate the very philosophy of the simplified taxation system, which was created to support and develop the middle class. The introduction of VAT for microbusinesses with a turnover of UAH 1 million looks like an attempt to solve budget problems at the expense of the least protected market participants. Although the Ministry of Finance refers to the requirements of the IMF and the need for European integration, the implementation of these changes without a significant increase in the registration threshold could lead to the disappearance of legal small businesses as a class,” he told the Interfax-Ukraine news agency.
Onishchenko noted that the only criterion for mandatory VAT registration is “an income threshold of UAH 1 million over the last 12 calendar months.”
“In practice, this means that any entrepreneur — whether a coffee shop owner, hairdresser, IT specialist, or salesperson in a local store — will be required to obtain VAT payer status if they exceed this limit. The only exception is for a narrow category of e-residents. Thus, the state plans to cover almost the entire spectrum of small businesses with VAT, from market trading to the provision of household services, which was previously the prerogative of the general taxation system,” he said.
The expert noted that “the government’s intentions are serious and clearly planned in terms of timing; in particular, in response to an appeal from the National Association of Lobbyists of Ukraine, the Ministry of Finance disclosed details of agreements with international partners.”
According to the Ministry of Finance, the introduction of VAT for “simplified taxpayers” is part of the implementation of the conditions of the new 48-month cooperation program with the International Monetary Fund (Extended Fund Facility – EFF), an agreement on which was reached at the expert level on November 26, 2025. This program provides access to $8.1 billion in financing.
The reform schedule provides that amendments to the Tax Code will be submitted to the Verkhovna Rada in January 2026, and from January 1, 2027, the requirement for mandatory VAT registration for all “simplified taxpayers” with a turnover of more than UAH 1 million will become mandatory.
At the same time, the lawyer notes that the Ministry of Finance expects the reform to have a fiscal effect of more than UAH 40 billion in additional budget revenues in the first year of its implementation.
At the same time, Onishchenko believes that this initiative carries much deeper risks that could offset the potential fiscal benefits.
“The most critical point is the threshold of UAH 1 million itself. In the current inflationary environment, this amount is equivalent to a turnover (not profit!) of UAH 83,000 per month. This is an indicator of a microbusiness, which is often run by one person or a family. Forcing such businesses to administer VAT is placing an excessive administrative burden on them,“ he explains.
The expert also predicts an increase in the shadow economy and a mass exodus of businesses into the ”shadow.”
“Entrepreneurs whose turnover fluctuates between UAH 1.5-2 million will be faced with a choice: either raise prices by 20% and hire an accountant, losing competitiveness, or split the business among relatives, or switch to cash payments ‘off the books’ so as not to artificially exceed the limit of UAH 1 million.
Meanwhile, large and medium-sized taxpayers who use simplified tax systems in their work will be able to simply increase their number and continue to use them,” he said.
Onishchenko also predicts that the introduction of tax changes will lead to higher inflation and more expensive goods and services for end consumers. He estimates that the cost of a haircut, shoe repair, or coffee will automatically increase by at least 20%, which will trigger a new round of inflation in the service sector, and these changes will also lead to increased corruption risks.
“It is also worth considering the problem of blocked tax invoices. While this is currently a headache for medium and large businesses, after the reform, thousands of small entrepreneurs may become hostages of the system. For small businesses, even a week-long stoppage due to bureaucratic obstacles can be fatal,” he stressed.
Onishchenko noted that “although the Ministry of Finance refers to the requirements of the IMF and the need for European integration, the implementation of these changes without a significant increase in the registration threshold could lead to the disappearance of legal small businesses as a class.”
“That is why it is critically important for the business community to join the discussion of this bill on the Ministry of Finance website while it is still in the consultation stage,” the expert emphasized.
According to Interfax-Ukraine, Ukrainian restaurant chain Chornomorka is entering Romania: the first establishment in Bucharest is planned to open this winter in the renovated Unirea shopping center (Piata Unirii 1).
The company is already recruiting a team: they are looking for administrators, chefs, as well as waiters, fish sellers, cooks, and a cleaning manager.
The restaurant has an area of 280 square meters and is designed to seat 98-102 people.
The Unirea shopping center (approximately 80,000 square meters) is undergoing renovation, with Colliers Romania overseeing the redesign project. At the same time, a large-scale reconstruction of Piata Unirii is underway, with work expected to take approximately two years.
According to the chain’s website, by December 2025, Chernomorka will have 40 establishments in Ukraine, Moldova, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and Poland.
Ukraine continues to be one of the largest suppliers of cheese to the Uzbekistan market, ranking among the top 10 exporters of this product. Dairy products traditionally occupy an important place in the diet of the Uzbekistan population, where fermented drinks such as kefir, ayran, and bifidok are particularly popular. At the same time, the most dynamically growing segments are ready-made baby food, drinkable yogurts, and butter, which indicates a gradual expansion of consumer preferences and demand for products with higher added value.
As Olga Gvozdeva, advisor to the director of the Office for Entrepreneurship and Export Development, noted, demographic and infrastructure factors are important for market development. “The average age of the population is 29, and the level of urbanization is only 51%, which creates certain logistical difficulties, especially for products that require a cold chain,” she said.
The growing demand for dairy products in a country that is home to 38% of Central Asia’s population makes Uzbekistan the largest potential consumer market for dairy products in the region.
There is a free trade agreement between Ukraine and Uzbekistan, which provides for a zero customs duty rate for products with a Ukrainian CT-1 certificate. Currently, 16 Ukrainian companies have official permission to export dairy products to Uzbekistan. Among them are:
Agroprosperis LLC
Molochny Aliance LLC
Yuriya-Plus LLC
Lvivmolprodukt LLC
Kyivmolprodukt LLC
Rogan Dairy Factory LLC
Prostokvashino LLC
Podillya LLC
Zarechnoye LLC
Starokostiantynivsky Milk Plant LLC
Shostka LLC
Volynmoloko LLC
Ivano-Frankivsk Milk Plant LLC
Bukovina LLC
Milko Dnipro LLC
Ternopil Milk Plant LLC
Uzbekistan is actively updating its regulatory system. In particular, in 2023, outdated technical regulations were abolished, and new sanitary standards and product safety assessment mechanisms were introduced. Particular attention is paid to compliance with Halal standards, in particular, the national certification system has been in operation since May 2023. The “Foydalilik belgysi” (Usefulness Mark) label was also introduced, which classifies products according to their nutritional value.
Thus, Ukraine has significant prospects for increasing exports of dairy products to Uzbekistan, which, given the growing demand and regulatory changes, is a lucrative opportunity for Ukrainian producers.
Astarta, Ukraine’s largest sugar producer, has commissioned another building for keeping heifers aged two to six months in the Poltava region as part of a large-scale reconstruction of dairy farms, the agricultural holding’s press service reported.
“This is part of a major infrastructure renewal program that Astarta continues to implement throughout 2025. The company is modernizing farms, introducing new animal husbandry technologies, improving energy efficiency, and working to improve livestock genetics. In total, Astarta invested about UAH 543 million in this area during the 11 months of 2025. Last year, about UAH 300 million was invested in the reconstruction and modernization of the industry,” the agricultural holding said, adding that these measures are aimed at increasing production efficiency.
The building has been reconstructed in compliance with requirements for room layout, animal density, microclimate, and sanitary and hygienic conditions, which reduce dependence on external resources and make the farm more autonomous.
Astarta systematically invests in upgrading livestock infrastructure, improving animal welfare, applying modern technologies, and increasing energy efficiency. The opening of each new facility is another step towards strengthening the competitiveness of our livestock farming, implementing good animal welfare practices, and strengthening the company’s production base,” said Yaroslav Kushnir, Director of Astarta’s Livestock Department.
The company is convinced that systematic work on the development of livestock farming yields stable results — the agricultural holding remains the largest producer of industrial milk in Ukraine.
Astarta is a vertically integrated agro-industrial holding operating in eight regions of Ukraine and the largest sugar producer in Ukraine. It includes six sugar factories, agricultural enterprises with a land bank of 220,000 hectares and dairy farms with 22,000 head of cattle, an oil extraction plant in Hlobyn (Poltava region), seven elevators, and a biogas complex.
In the first half of 2025, Astarta reduced its net profit by 10.3% to EUR47.11 million, and its consolidated revenue decreased by 29.3% to EUR320.71 million.
Agricultural production in Ukraine fell by 6.6% in January-November 2025 compared to the same period last year, according to the State Statistics Service.
Thus, according to the results of 11 months of this year, the agricultural production index was 93.4% compared to January-November last year. In particular, the indicator for crop production reached 92.7%, and for livestock production – 96.2%.
Agricultural enterprises suffered slightly greater losses, with production at 93.2% of last year’s level. At the same time, the indicator for crop production reached 92.0%, and for livestock production – 100%. At the same time, the indicator for private farms was 93.7%. For crop production, it was 99.8%, and for livestock production, 90.4%.
The largest decline in production was recorded in the Donetsk region, where this index was 57.4% of last year’s level. There was also a significant decline in the Kherson (70.1%) and Dnipropetrovsk (79.3%) regions.
At the same time, two regions showed positive dynamics: in the Chernihiv region, the agricultural production index rose to 102.2%, and in the Vinnytsia region, to 101.6%.
This week (December 15-21), the crypto market experienced fluctuations without a clear trend: after a slump at the beginning of the week, Bitcoin remained in the $87-89 thousand range, and investors switched back to a wait-and-see mode due to the macro agenda, mixed dynamics of ETF flows, and a seasonal decline in liquidity ahead of the holidays.
Bitcoin gained about 1.6% (at closing) between December 15 and December 21, but there was a noticeable V-shaped movement during the week: selling pressure in the $85,000–86,000 range was offset by rebounds to $88,000–89,000.
Ethereum remained virtually unchanged over the same period (close to zero at closing), staying around the $3,000 mark, but with noticeable intraday fluctuations.
Sentiment remained subdued: fear and greed indices showed “Extreme Fear” for most of the week, which usually amplifies sharp movements in a thin market.
The key external factor was expectations regarding US interest rates and year-end risk-off sentiment. In December, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.5-3.75%, while the market interpreted its rhetoric as more cautious about further steps.
Against this backdrop, any hint of a pause or a tighter rate trajectory weighed on risk appetite, as evidenced by the reaction of crypto assets at the beginning of the “last full week of the year.”
The second theme is institutional flows. According to reports and market news, there were inflows and noticeable outflows from BTC and ETH ETFs during the week (investors often “close” risk or lock in results at the end of the year), which added volatility and increased dependence on news.
The third line is that “traditional finance” continues to tokenize, but this is still more of an infrastructure trend than an immediate price driver. For example, JPMorgan announced the launch of a tokenized money market fund on the Ethereum blockchain, supporting the long-term narrative around real assets on-chain.
Even during a calm week in terms of prices, reminders of the risks were loud and clear: research on crypto crime and isolated incidents in DeFi underscore that “operational risk” (vulnerabilities, deployment errors, key management) remains a key vulnerability for the industry.
Fixygen’s short-term forecast until the end of 2025
Until December 31, the base scenario is sideways movement with an increased likelihood of sharp spikes due to low liquidity during the holidays and reduced institutional activity. Important triggers for the rest of the year are ETF flow dynamics, any surprises from US macro statistics and Fed rhetoric, plus local stories about major players in the public market (there is also growing attention around the classification of companies with large crypto reserves).
Regarding risks: during the “holidays,” the influence of thin trading and liquidations increases — movements may be disproportionate to the news.
