The gross corn harvest in Ukraine in the 2025 season was collected on an area of 87% of the sown area and amounted to 27.5 million tons with an average yield of 7.13 tons/ha, analysts at brokerage company Spike Brokers reported on Telegram.
According to their estimates, as of December 25, 2025, an average of about 551,000 hectares of unharvested corn remained in Ukraine.
“With the current average yield in the country at around 7.1 t/ha, this forms a basic potential for an additional harvest of about 4.0 million tons,” the brokers emphasized.
They noted that the key unharvested areas are concentrated in regions with significantly higher than average yields. The largest residues are recorded in the Sumy region (93 thousand hectares with a yield of 8.0 tons/ha), Zhytomyr (56 thousand hectares and 7.7 tons/ha), Chernihiv (49 thousand hectares and 8.8 tons/ha), Kyiv (29 thousand hectares and 9.2 t/ha) and Cherkasy (29 thousand hectares and 7.0 t/ha) regions.
“According to estimates of the harvesting potential, taking into account the actual yields of these regions, the total additional harvest in key regions alone may exceed 2.3 million tons. Taking into account the rest of the regions, the final harvest potential may exceed the baseline estimate and approach 4.3-4.5 million tons,” experts say.
They noted that corn exports through seaports have slowed down, leading to a further decline in prices. Increased risks and additional costs of exports through seaports continue to put pressure on prices in this direction. The spot corn index with CPT port delivery (30 days) fell to $204 per ton.
“If prices continue to fall by at least $5 in the direction of seaports, the western border will begin to form a competitive alternative for a number of regions in central Ukraine. At the same time, supply continues to grow in the direction of the western border: FCA Chop deals with delivery in March-May were concluded at EUR180,” Spike Brokers summarized.
The crypto market ended 2025 significantly weaker than most traditional asset classes. According to Fixygen’s estimates, Bitcoin fell by 5.75% over the year, Ethereum by 11.58%, and the altcoin sector by 42.27%. Fixygen
At the end of December, the market remained in a state of low liquidity and consolidation, with BTC and ETH trading around $88,000 and $3,000, respectively.
The key story of 2025 was strong growth to autumn highs and a subsequent sharp correction. Fixygen noted that the decline was exacerbated by derivatives and the forced closure of short positions worth about $19 billion. Fixygen In November, according to Fixygen analysts, the cryptocurrency market lost more than $1 trillion in capitalization amid profit-taking, deteriorating risk appetite, and outflows from exchange-traded funds. Fixygen
The end of the year was marked by a thin market and the impact of major events in derivatives: Fixygen pointed to the effect of low holiday liquidity and discussion of a large expiration of options on Deribit as a potential trigger for short-term volatility. Open4Business
Trends for 2025
1. Crypto is increasingly being traded as a risk asset alongside the macro agenda. This was evident, in particular, through sensitivity to interest rate expectations and overall market sentiment, as well as through participants’ discussions about ETF flows.
2. Rotation within the market: after overheating, capital sought more stable segments. The tokenization of real assets and the growth of infrastructure around RWA and stablecoins stood out: according to RWA.xyz, the total value of tokenized RWA on public blockchains is about $19.17 billion, and the stablecoin market is about $298 billion.
3. Regulation became part of investment risk and part of the industry’s “legitimization”: 2025 brought noticeable regulatory changes and increased attention to compliance in various regions.
The near future: baseline scenario and crossroads
The baseline scenario for early 2026 is continued consolidation after a volatile fall, when the market will “digest” the correction, and dynamics will largely remain dependent on the macro background, capital flows, and the news agenda.
Further on, the fork is simple. The positive scenario is a return of steady demand from large investors and a restoration of risk appetite, which usually supports BTC and then triggers a selective “second wave” in liquid altcoins. The negative scenario is a new wave of risk-off (due to rates, geopolitics, or regulatory surprises), in which altcoins, as the riskiest segment, feel the pressure the most — this was already evident at the end of 2025.
Artem Shevchenko, CEO of the monomarket marketplace, has left the company.
He announced this on his Facebook page.
“A journey lasting almost three years is coming to an end. It has been an extraordinary journey — from an idea to a working project that has been able to generate hundreds of millions of hryvnia in turnover every month. From three people at the start to a team of 130+ professionals today. Monomarket has become an integral part of the Ukrainian e-commerce market and has significantly changed its landscape. And this project still has many achievements ahead,“ he wrote.
The top manager thanked the team, founders, and partners and stated that his stage in the project was complete. ”I’m moving on. Another large e-commerce project has been built. Let’s move on to the next one,” Shevchenko wrote.
As reported, monobank launched a marketplace in its mobile app in October 2024.
The growth rate of housing construction costs in Ukraine in 2026 will slow down slightly compared to previous periods, with an average increase of 10–15% over the year, according to Ukrainian developers.
“In 2026, we expect further growth in construction costs, but the pace of this growth is likely to be more moderate than in previous periods. The main factors remain the cost of construction materials, energy, logistics, and labor, as well as currency fluctuations,” the press service of the DIM group of companies told Interfax-Ukraine.
Containing the growth of construction costs is possible thanks to the adaptation of the construction market to new conditions: optimization of design solutions, construction processes, and supply chains. At the same time, maintaining a balance between the economic efficiency of projects and the preservation of housing standards remains an important condition, the company noted.
At the same time, pressure on costs next year will come from the cost of energy, logistics, import-dependent building materials, as well as stricter requirements for engineering systems and safety, said Perfect Group project manager Oleksiy Koval. According to him, the company expects costs to grow by 15-20% in 2026.
“Our baseline scenario is a 15-20% year-on-year increase in production costs, but the range will depend on the exchange rate, material prices, and the situation on the labor market. We are building in a safety margin through longer contracts with contractors, optimising project solutions without compromising quality, and planning purchases of critical materials in advance,” he said.
Wages in the industry remain an important factor in the growth of construction costs, Koval added. To combat the labor shortage, Perfect Group is working on employment contracts with foreigners, particularly from India, to attract them to contract work.
In turn, Dan Saltsov, commercial director of Greenville’s Kyiv projects, predicts a moderate increase in the cost of housing construction within the range of 6-12% per year.
“It is likely that the cost will continue to grow by 6-12% per year. Trends in recent years confirm an annual increase. The main factors influencing this are inflation, rising prices for construction materials, higher wages, labor shortages, and currency fluctuations. The market is undergoing structural changes,” said the expert, adding that a decline in housing prices is not to be expected.
This is also confirmed by experts from the developer RIEL. As the company told Interfax-Ukraine, in addition to rising costs, the price per square meter will also be affected by the rising cost of loans in the construction sector.
“We predict further price increases due to rising costs, growth in investments that developers make at the start of a project, and the rising cost of loans in the construction sector. However, in our opinion, demand will remain stable, although a significant increase in new construction should not be expected,” the developer said.
According to the forecast of the construction company Intergal-Bud, the cost of housing will continue to grow within the range of 10-15% compared to 2025.
“The cost per square meter is likely to continue to grow, but without sharp jumps, within the range of 10-15%, and will have objective reasons related to the rise in the cost of construction materials, engineering solutions, labor shortages, as well as security, military, and political factors,” said Olena Ryzhova, commercial director of Intergal-Bud.
According to her, the primary residential real estate market will maintain cautious positive dynamics in 2026. Thus, demand for housing in the “comfort” and “business” segments will remain stable, as will the purchase of apartments in the early stages of construction, traditionally one of the most reliable assets for preserving funds.
However, the residential construction market has not yet recovered to its pre-war levels, the Kovalskaya Group emphasizes. According to the developer, construction costs will continue to rise in response to the rising cost of building materials and energy, as well as due to a reduction in new projects.
“Given the realities we are seeing, the construction market has not yet recovered to pre-war levels. Developers are mainly completing previously started projects, with only one new project for every five completed. The rise in the cost of construction materials and electricity, as well as the reduction in supply, will lead to an increase in the cost of construction. The sale price of apartments is expected to grow by 10-15% per year in currency terms,” the company notes.
As reported with reference to data from Ukrainian developers, the cost of housing construction in Ukraine in the first nine months of 2025 grew by an average of 10-25%, depending on the class of housing. According to the State Statistics Service, prices for construction and installation works in the third quarter of 2025 increased by 5.3% compared to the same period last year, while prices in the primary housing market increased by 12.8% during the same period.
In January 2026, Ukrzaliznytsia will raise prices for most types of rolling stock, with only the cost of transportation by grain carriers and container platforms remaining unchanged, corresponding to the December rates of UAH 1,250/day and UAH 203/day (excluding VAT), respectively.
According to the tariffs published on the company’s website, in January 2026, compared to December 2025, the cost of tank cars for transporting food products will increase from UAH 738/day to UAH 938/day (excluding VAT), mineral carriers – from 203 UAH/day to 450 UAH/day (excluding VAT), and semi-cars – from 1350 UAH/day to 1450 UAH/day (excluding VAT).
Ballast and cement tankers will increase in price by 100 UAH/day, to 703 UAH/day and 1,300 UAH/day (excluding VAT), respectively.
The cost of fitting platforms will also change: 40-foot platforms will increase from 750 UAH/day to 900 UAH/day (excluding VAT), 60-foot platforms — from 850 to 900 UAH/day, and 80-foot platforms will increase from 1250 to 1450 UAH/day (excluding VAT).
The cost of tanks for transporting liquefied gas will increase by 400 UAH to 603 UAH/day (excluding VAT) in January.
Only flatbed timber trucks will become cheaper by 200 UAH, to 1360 UAH/day (excluding VAT).
Ukrainian metallurgical companies may increase steel production by 17% in 2026, to 8.9 million tons from 7.6 million tons in 2025, said Serhiy Povazhnyuk, deputy director of the state-owned enterprise Ukrpromzovnishchexpertiza, in an interview with telegraf.com.ua.
According to him, the main factors limiting production were security-related military risks, staff shortages, unstable electricity supplies due to missile and drone strikes on energy infrastructure, and the continuing shortage of scrap metal on the domestic market.
“As for the forecast for 2026, metallurgical plants have already announced plans to significantly increase liquid steel production, to approximately 8.9 million tons,” the expert said.
At the same time, he noted that the Ukrainian metallurgical industry is experiencing an acute shortage of ferrous metal scrap, in particular due to the growth in exports of this raw material abroad.
“If metallurgical plants manage to implement the planned increase in production, there may simply not be enough scrap metal collected. Domestic consumers should be given priority in terms of raw material supplies, especially now, during wartime,” said Povazhnyuk.
He cited calculations according to which 1 ton of scrap metal, which is processed into metal products at Interpipe’s facilities, for which scrap is the main raw material, brings the state UAH 7,500 in taxes. In addition, 1 ton of scrap used at Metinvest Group’s plants generates about UAH 9,300 in tax revenues to budgets at all levels.
As Povazhnyuk emphasized, this is a direct benefit that the state receives by keeping all scrap metal in the country and processing it into steel. In addition, such processing has a multiplier effect on the entire economy, as it stimulates growth in related industries, such as the production of iron ore, coke, and ferroalloys.
“All this needs to be transported within the country, which means that the transport industry receives additional cargo. According to calculations, these sectors will pay an additional 5.5-5.8 thousand UAH in taxes to the budget per ton of scrap metal consumed. Therefore, the total effect for the budget from processing 1 ton of scrap metal in Ukraine will be 13-14 thousand hryvnia/ton. In addition to cash inflows to the budget, metallurgical plants provide tens of thousands of official jobs for themselves and related enterprises,” the deputy director argued.
In addition, Povazhnyuk stated that exporters pay taxes and payroll charges (personal income tax, social security contributions, military tax), land tax, and income tax.
“According to our data, in 2024, the largest exporting companies, which accounted for almost 90% of Ukrainian scrap metal exports, exported a total of 247,000 tons of raw materials abroad, paying a total of only UAH 12.3 million in taxes. Thus, the state received an average of UAH 50 in taxes for each ton of scrap metal exported. The official number of employees in these companies was only a few dozen people,” said the expert, specifying that the calculations were made based on open data on the financial performance of companies available through the OpenDataBot service and other public sources.
At the same time, Poland has begun discussing the abolition of trade preferences for the Ukrainian metallurgical industry due to Ukraine’s intentions to introduce a de facto ban on the export of ferrous metal scrap. This was written on his social media page by Michal Poluboczek, a member of the Polish Sejm from the Confederation party.
According to the draft resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers “On the approval of lists of goods subject to licensing for export and import, and quotas for 2026,” it is proposed to set the quota for ferrous metal scrap for the next year at zero, which means a de facto ban on the export of ferrous metal scrap.
As reported, in January-November 2025, Ukrainian scrap collection companies increased exports of ferrous metal scrap by 45.3% compared to the same period in 2024, from 261,578 thousand tons to 380,165 thousand tons. In monetary terms, scrap exports increased by 37.4% to $112.782 million from $82.056 million. During the period in question, scrap exports were formally carried out mainly to Poland (79.80% of shipments in monetary terms), Greece (7.61%), and Italy (5.70%).
In addition, it was reported that due to the sharp increase in exports of strategic raw materials from Ukraine, the Ministry of Economy initiated the introduction of a licensing and quota regime for scrap exports with a zero quota. A public discussion of the draft resolution is currently underway. Its implementation is expected to contribute to the smooth operation of Ukraine’s metallurgical and foundry industries, as well as to stabilize the situation with regard to meeting the demand for scrap on the domestic market.
In 2024, Ukraine’s scrap collection companies increased their exports of ferrous metal scrap by 60.7% compared to 2023, from 182,465 thousand tons to 293,190 thousand tons. In monetary terms, scrap exports for the year increased by 73.2% to $91.311 million from $52.723 million.
Earlier, Valentin Makarenko, chairman of the board of Interpipe Vtormet, said in an interview with Interfax-Ukraine that ferrous metal scrap exports have always been and remain a threat to the Ukrainian metallurgical industry, as they exacerbate the shortage of this raw material on the domestic market. In addition, this problem is compounded by the fact that during the war, the area suitable for scrap collection is shrinking.
Previously, large metallurgical plants most often compensated for the shortage of scrap mainly by increasing the consumption of pig iron during steel smelting. However, due to the shutdown of the Pokrovsk coal mining group and the increase in coking coal imports, replacing scrap with pig iron has become economically unfeasible in converter steel production.
According to Makarenko, at the same time, the importance of scrap as a raw material for decarbonization of industry is growing. The electrometallurgical method of steel smelting is becoming the most efficient and popular for the manufacture of metal products and their subsequent sale on European markets in order to minimize the impact of the “carbon” tax. Recognizing this trend, the European Union is resorting to various regulatory measures that allow ferrous metal scrap to remain within the bloc, and local steel mills have the raw materials to produce steel in the most economical and environmentally friendly way.
“Today, I don’t see any other effective mechanisms for stabilizing the market and reducing scrap exports, except for an administrative ban on the export of this strategic raw material outside Ukraine at the state level,” the chairman of the board summed up.
For more information on the largest steel producers and global industry trends, see the Experts Club video analysis review available on YouTube: Experts Club — Leaders of the global steel industry 1990–2024
