Import of goods to Ukraine in % to the previous period in 2021 and 2022
SSC of Ukraine
The real GDP of Ukraine in 2022 will decrease by more than a third, inflation accelerated to 20% in the first half of the year, according to bankers surveyed by the Interfax-Ukraine agency.
“We maintain our forecast for a 33% decline in Ukraine’s real GDP by the end of 2022. The reduction in investment and private consumption will be partially mitigated by an increase in government consumption and inventories,” Alfa-Bank Ukraine’s head of analytical department Oleksiy Blinov expects.
According to him, in June, the growth of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to accelerate to almost 20% in annual terms after 18% in May.
“We expect inflation to stabilize in the second half of 2022, but will remain above 20% until the end of 2022,” the expert added.
His opinion is shared by the head of the board of Unex Bank, Ivan Svitek, according to whom, according to the most conservative estimates, Ukraine’s GDP in the first half of the year fell by a third.
“But in fact, the fall could be even deeper. Moreover, the situation is constantly changing: household incomes continue to decline, consumer demand is declining. (…) Russia still wants to destroy the Ukrainian economy, but it does not quite succeed” , said the banker.
Konstantin Khvedchuk, strategic development analyst at Pivdenny Bank, in turn, notes that the peak of the decline in business activity occurred in March, when production was halved, and later the business adapted to the conditions of the war and gradually resumed its activities.
“In May, the decline in business activity is already estimated at 40% compared to the pre-war level. Domestic consumption and production are also supported by an increase in government spending. In general, the fall in GDP in the second quarter will be 40-45% y/y. In the third quarter, seasonal GDP growth will take place , including due to the harvest,” the expert explained.
According to his forecasts, if active hostilities continue until the end of the year, economic activity will remain at the level of 60-65% compared to the pre-war level.
Khvedchuk notes that inflation was accelerating even before the full-scale war both in Ukraine and in the world as a result of economic recovery after the pandemic, and the war further exacerbated these trends because now inflation has reached 18% y / y and is likely to grow before the end of the year .
He expects inflation to continue to be fueled by disruptions in supply chains, higher transport costs, including due to rising fuel prices, situational shortages of certain groups of goods and an increase in the money supply as a result of a growing budget deficit.
A significant factor in price dynamics will also be the receipt of external financial assistance and, accordingly, the ability of the NBU to ensure exchange rate stability, the banker points out.
“According to our forecasts, consumer price growth will reach 30% y/y at the end of the year and will continue to slow down,” he said.
The head of the board of Unex Bank, Ivan Svitek, also expects that the inflation rate for the first six months of the year will approach 19-20% on an annualized basis, and, taking into account the abolition of tax incentives for imports, in the next month or two, they may go beyond the specified corridor.
“It is almost impossible to predict how these figures will change in the second half of the year, because the situation is too unpredictable. The end of the war and the return of Ukrainians to their homeland is one scenario. The continuation or even escalation of hostilities is another,” Svitek said.
In addition, according to him, the gas war against Europe, the G7 negotiations on the introduction of a price ceiling for Russian oil, and many other events can have a global impact on inflationary processes in the world and in Ukraine, in particular, so it is difficult to make forecasts in such conditions.
A grant from the Federal Republic of Germany in the amount of EUR1 billion went to the state budget of Ukraine, the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine reported on Friday.
“The grant funds were transferred to the state budget through a special administrative account opened by the International Monetary Fund to send money from donor countries to help Ukraine,” the ministry said in a press release.
According to him, the proceeds will be used to finance priority budget expenditures during martial law.
In total, since the beginning of the war, Ukraine has already received EUR1.3 billion from Germany to support the financial and budgetary system, the Finance Ministry said.
Earlier this week, the Treasury announced that it had received a EUR446.8 million loan from the World Bank (WB) with a UK guarantee for EUR424.6 million, a US grant of $1.3 billion through a WB multi-donor account, and a loan from Japan for the equivalent of about $500 million.
In April 2022, the IMF decided to create an administrative account for crediting funds as part of the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) from donor countries in favor of Ukraine. All funds raised using this account should be used to maintain the financial stability of Ukraine in the form of grants or credits (loans).
Germany became the second country to use this tool, after Canada, which provided a concessional loan of 1 billion Canadian dollars (the equivalent of $773 million) in the first half of June.
The government estimates the budget’s monthly deficit financing needs at $5 billion. Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko previously predicted that international financial support for Ukraine would increase to $4.8 billion in June from $1.5 billion in May, and thanks to funds received at the end of the month, it was close to this amount. According to the head of the Ministry of Finance, in July the government expects to maintain the same significant volumes of external financing as in June. In particular, the second tranche of a US grant of approximately $1.3 billion and an EU loan of EUR1 billion are expected to arrive.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky called the conference in Lugano, which will begin on Monday, “a significant step towards the restoration of Ukraine.”
“We are actively preparing for the start of a special conference in Lugano, Switzerland. Her first day is Monday. A large-scale international event dedicated to the restoration of our country. Recovery in the broadest sense of the word. It is necessary not only to restore everything that the invaders destroyed, but to create a new foundation for our life, for Ukraine – safe, modern, convenient, barrier-free,” he said in a traditional video message on Saturday evening.
“This requires huge investments – billions, new technologies, best practices, new institutions and, of course, reforms. And now, on Monday, Ukraine will present in Lugano a national view on how to implement all this,” he also said.
In fact, he noted, “this is the biggest economic project in Europe of our time and an opportunity to show itself for every state, for every company that we invite to work in Ukraine.”
Zelensky recalled that the territories of 10 regions suffered from the hostilities. During this time, 1027 cities and towns were liberated, another 2610 are still under Russian occupation. And most of them need restoration.
“Therefore, the Conference in Lugano can be a significant step towards the restoration of Ukraine. And when we implement this project – and I’m sure it will be – it will be counted, perhaps from this event,” Zelensky stressed.
The WHO considers urgent coordinated action necessary in connection with a sharp increase in the number of cases of human infection with monkeypox in Europe, reports the Associated Press.
“Urgent and coordinated action is needed if we are to get out of this situation safely,” said Hans Kluge, WHO Regional Director for Europe.
He noted that monkeypox cases in the European region had tripled in the past two weeks.
Kluge added that 99% of the detected cases are men who have sex with other men. However, he said there are “small numbers” of cases among other people.
Monkeypox is a rare infectious disease most prevalent in remote areas of Central and West Africa. Its symptoms are nausea, fever, rash, itching, and muscle pain.
Earlier, Ukrainian experts analyzed this disease and considered the risks of a pandemic to be extremely low. For more details, watch the program about this on the YouTube channel Club of Experts
Ukrainian exports in January-June 2022 decreased by 23.7% compared to the first half of 2021 and amounted to $22.8 billion, Deputy Economy Minister – Trade Representative of Ukraine Taras Kachka said.
“Over the first half of this year, exports from Ukraine decreased by 23.7% compared to the first half of 2021 and amounted to $22.8 billion. At the same time, export volumes in the second quarter amounted to $8.782 billion, which is 37.4% less than in first quarter of 2022,” Kachka wrote on Facebook.
Compared to the second quarter of last year, the reduction in exports in the second quarter of this year was even more than 45.8% (-$7.42 billion), he noted.
At the same time, in physical volumes, the decrease in quarterly exports was even more significant – 55.6%, that is, by 20.8 million tons. In the second quarter, we exported 16.6 million tons of cargo,” Taras Kachka said.
He added that the main reason for the fall in exports is the blocking of Ukraine’s seaports by Russia.
“The reduction in shipping by sea in the second quarter compared to the first amounted to 86.5% (minus 21.6 million tons). At the same time, it is important to note that the situation with exports has stabilized and even improved by months,” the trade representative emphasized.
Exports resumed growth in May and June after a sharp fall in March. At the same time, exports grew both in terms of value and volume, according to data from the Ministry of Economy. So, in June, Ukraine exported 5.8 million tons of cargo worth $3.177 billion.
“At the same time, one should pay attention to the fact that in June there was a significant decrease in the export of iron ore – 1.75 million tons against 2.27 million tons in May. At the same time, exports of sunflower seeds increased significantly to 537 thousand tons in June. At the same time, oil remains the most profitable export item – $437 million,” Kachka said.
According to him, the top 10 export commodity positions of Ukraine in June included: oil, corn, sunflower seeds, ore, steel (semi-finished products), wires, poultry meat, pipes, cast iron, soybeans.
“Trade remains diversified. Exports of 223 items at the four-digit level exceeded $1 million during the month. Geographically, exports are fully focused on the EU. 78% of our exports in the second quarter of 2022 were to the EU. The total value of exports to the EU in the second quarter is $6 .86 billion, up 6.4% from the second quarter of last year,” the sales representative wrote.
However, he noted that trade with other countries of the world decreased in April-June compared to the second quarter of 2021 by 80%.
