Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter of 2021 grew by 5.4% compared to the second quarter of 2020, while falling by 2.2% in the first quarter of this year.
Alfa-Bank (Kyiv) has downgraded the forecast for real GDP growth in Ukraine in 2021 to 3.7% instead of 4.3% in the April forecast and the average annual inflation in 2021 to 9.4% instead of the previously predicted 8.5%.
Oxford Economics has downgraded the forecast for Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2021 to 4% from 4.4% in the July forecast, and the risks of further lockdowns and expectations of tightening fiscal and monetary policy led to a deterioration in the forecast for economic growth in 2022 from 4.2% to 3.5%.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley have downgraded the estimate of Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2021 to 3.4% compared to 4.5%, as previously expected, and predict a 4.2% GDP growth in 2022.
The Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) has worsened its 2021 GDP growth expectations to 3.6% from 4.7% in its April forecast and improved its 2022 GDP growth forecast – 4.4% from 2. 7%, Head of the KSE Center of Macroeconomic Modeling Yuriy Sholomytsky has said.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-June 2021 narrowed by 12.7% compared to January-June 2020, to $1.327 billion from $1.519 billion, the State Statistics Service reported.
The surplus of Ukraine’s balance of foreign trade in the first half of 2021 fell by 46.3% compared to the first half of last year, to $0.41 billion.
The growth of consumer prices in Ukraine in annual terms in July 2021 accelerated to 10.2% from 9.5% in June, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The deficit of the state budget for 2022 in the bill for the first reading is provided at the level of 3.5% of GDP in accordance with the Budget Declaration for three years, while there is no possibility to revise this indicator for the second reading, Finance Minister of Ukraine Serhiy Marchenko said in interview.
The total public debt of Ukraine in July 2021 increased by 0.48% in U.S. dollars and amounted to $ 92.96 billion, while it decreased by 0.6% in hryvnias, to UAH 2.499 trillion, according to data on the website of the Ministry of Finance.
Industrial production in Ukraine in July 2021 increased by 0.2% compared to July 2020, while in June the growth was 1.1%, in March – 5.4%, and in April – 13%.
Exports of products of the agro-industrial complex of Ukraine decreased by 8.8 p.p., from 44% in January-July 2020 to 35.2% in January-July 2021, while the share of these products in the total imports into the country over the same period – by 0.9 percentage points, to 11.3%, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food reported.
Retail goods turnover in Ukraine in June 2021 year-over-year grew by 13% year-over-year in comparable prices, while in May the figure was 22.7%.
Publisher of “Open4Business”, PhD in Economics, Maksim Urakin
On Tuesday, September 21, at 11.00, the press center of the Interfax-Ukraine news agency will host a roundtable talk entitled “Implementation of customs procedures in accordance with EU practice: what changes may Ukrainian business expect? Practical aspects.” Participants include President of the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry Hennadiy Chyzhykov; President of the Ukrainian Exporters Club Yevhenia Lytvynova; international expert of the EU Public Finance Management Support Programe for Ukraine (EU4PFM) on customs issues, former Deputy Chairman of the Customs of the Republic of Lithuania Vytenis Alisauskas; Director of the Department of Customs Policy of the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine Oleksandr Moskalenko; Director of the Department of Implementation of the International Transit System of State Customs Service of Ukraine Serhiy Demchenko; Director of the Department of Customs Audit and Person Registration of the State Customs Service of Ukraine Svitlana Anishchenko; Head of the Directorate for Support of Authorized Economic Operators of the Department for Organization of Customs Control and Customs Clearance of the State Customs Service of Ukraine Andriy Teply; representatives of business associations, media, experts of the Reform Support Team of the Ministry of Finance and State Customs Service. Moderator of the event is its organizer Maksim Urakin. Working languages of the roundtable talk: Ukrainian, Russian, English (8/5a Reitarska Street). The broadcast will be available on the YouTube channel of Interfax-Ukraine. Due to quarantine restrictions, the number of seats in the press center is limited. Admission of journalists requires registration on the spot. Details by phone: (068) 099 1709.
As of Saturday morning, 6,234 new cases of COVID-19 were recorded in Ukraine, 1,763 people recovered, 79 died, the press service of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine said.
“For the day on September 17, 2021, some 6,234 new confirmed cases of coronavirus disease COVID-19 were recorded in Ukraine (of which children – 689, health workers – 89). Also over the past day hospitalized people amounted to 1,719, deaths – 79, recovered – 1,763 persons,” the ministry said on Telegram.
In Ukraine, residents of Severodonetsk (Luhansk region), Mariupol (Donetsk region), Kharkiv and Odesa the best treat Russia, according to the results of a study conducted by the Rating sociological group on behalf of the Center for Analysis and Sociological Research of the International Republican Institute.
According to the survey, 17% of residents in Severodonetsk assessed the attitude towards the Russian Federation as very warm, 30% – as warm, 34% – neutral. In Mariupol, 14% have a very warm attitude, 38% – warm, 25% – neutral.
In Kharkiv, the figures are 12%, 27% and 30%, respectively, in Odesa – 9%, 31%, 34%.
The attitude towards the Russian Federation among the residents of Zaporizhia is slightly worse: very warm – 8%, warm – 24%, neutral – 35%. In Mykolaiv, respectively, 8%, 19%, 32%, in Dnipro – 6%, 23%, 36%.
The worst attitude towards Russia is in Lviv. There, only 1% has a very warm and 3% warm attitude, 18% – neutral. Some 58% of residents are very cold and 17% are cold.
A similar situation is in Ivano-Frankivsk and Ternopil, where 50% are very cold towards Russia.
The survey was conducted in 24 regional centers of Ukraine, in non-occupied territories, including Mariupol and Severodonetsk in Donbas. The survey was conducted on the basis of a sample that included 19,196 respondents.
The study was conducted from May 12 to June 3, 2021 using face-to-face interviews at home with respondents.
The statistical error for each city does not exceed ± 3.5%. The attainability of the respondents averaged 65%.
On Monday, September 20, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky will leave for the United States, where he will take part in the General Assembly of the United Nations, press secretary of the head of the Ukrainian state Serhiy Nykyforov said.
“It is already official statement that on Monday, the visit of the President of Ukraine to the United States will start. Volodymyr Zelensky will take part in the UN General Assembly, make a speech there, and he will also have a number of bilateral meetings with leaders of other states, with representatives of international organizations, in particular with the UN Secretary General, business representatives, investors and the Ukrainian community in the United States,” Nykyforov said at a briefing on Friday.
The President’s Office estimates the growth of Ukraine’s GDP in 2021 at 3.8%, Deputy Head of the President’s Office Yulia Svyrydenko has said.
“We expect that a full-fledged economic recovery will take place during this and subsequent years. This year we forecast the growth [of GDP] at the level of 3.8%,” she told Interfax-Ukraine.
Svyrydenko said that currently there is a recovery in private consumption and external demand.
“Farmers are harvesting record harvests, which will also help the economy grow. At the same time, the growth potential today depends on the rate of vaccination, and the spread of new strains of coronavirus may be a risk,” she said.
As reported, the Ministry of Economy confirmed its growth forecast in 2021 at 4.1%, and the National Bank expects the GDP growth this year at 3.8%.
