YouGov poll shows that ending the war with Russia through negotiations is the preferred option in four out of seven countries
Willingness to support Ukraine “until victory” has fallen sharply in Western Europe at a critical time, according to a poll, as Donald Trump’s impending return to the White House raises questions about the future of US military aid to Kyiv.
A December YouGov poll in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden, Denmark and the UK found that public willingness to support Ukraine to victory – even if it means prolonging the war – has declined sharply in all seven countries over the past 12 months.
Support for an alternative solution to the conflict – a negotiated end to hostilities, even if it would leave Russia in control of parts of Ukraine – has increased in every country, the poll found, and in four of them this option is the most desirable.
There was some dissatisfaction with the idea of an imposed settlement that would involve Ukraine ceding part of its territory to Russia, as well as a widespread belief that the new US president would leave Ukraine after his inauguration on January 20.
Trump boasted, without providing details, that he could end the war “in 24 hours,” and his ambassador to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, is scheduled to visit European capitals in early January. Analysts express doubts that Russian President Vladimir Putin will negotiate on terms acceptable to Kyiv.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy welcomed Trump’s victory amid frustration with the outgoing Biden administration’s gradualist policies and ‘escalation management’ strategy.
The news comes almost three years after Putin’s full-scale invasion and at a critical time for Ukraine. This year, Russia has advanced at its fastest pace since the spring of 2022, when its columns made an unsuccessful attempt to seize Kyiv.
Russian troops have seized several towns in eastern Donbas, and Ukraine’s armed forces are struggling to defend populated areas in the face of a lack of forward forces and Russia’s continued military superiority.
Kyiv acknowledges that the Kremlin’s tactics have been effective, including the use of aircraft to strike defensive positions with glider bombs, followed by artillery shelling and small infantry groups. Russia is also adept at identifying weak Ukrainian brigades.
The poll showed that the willingness to support Ukraine until it defeats Russia remains high in Sweden (50%) and Denmark (40%), and in the UK (36%), but these levels are down 14 points from January’s 57%, 51% and 50%.
During the same period, the percentage of those who prefer a negotiated peace increased to 55% from 45% in Italy, 46% (38%) in Spain, 43% (35%) in France, and 45% (38%) in Germany, accompanied by a corresponding drop in willingness to support Ukraine until it wins.
It was unclear whether this change reflected a decline in interest or growing fatigue. In France, Germany, and Sweden, the share of those who want Ukraine to win – and are rooting for it to win – has remained stable since early 2023, although it has declined in other countries.
Less than a month before Trump’s return, a majority or near-majority in all but one country considered it likely that the newly elected US president would stop supporting Ukraine: 62% of Germans, 60% of Spaniards, 56% of Britons, 52% of French, and 48% of Italians.
They were less confident that Trump would withdraw the United States from the NATO defense alliance: Danes, Germans, Italians, Spaniards, and Swedes were more likely to believe that this would not happen, while the British and French were evenly divided.
People are also split on how they feel about a peaceful settlement that would leave Russia in control of at least some of the parts of Ukraine it illegally seized after invading in February 2022, as Trump reportedly may be planning.
Majorities in Sweden (57%), Denmark (53%), and the United Kingdom (51%), as well as a significant minority (43%) in Spain, said they would have a very or somewhat negative attitude toward such a deal, compared to only 37% in France and 31% in Germany and Italy.
It is unclear how any deal on Ukraine could be concluded. Last week, Putin reaffirmed his maximalist goals, including Russian control of Crimea and the four “annexed” Ukrainian regions, as well as the demilitarization of Ukraine and a veto on its NATO membership.
Zelenskyy is unwilling to hand over the occupied territories to Russia. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte criticized Western talk of a peace process as premature, saying that Ukraine must get what it needs to stop Putin’s victory.
The poll showed that most Westerners believe that Ukraine’s allies are not doing enough, both in terms of economic sanctions against Moscow and military and other assistance to Kyiv, to prevent Russia from winning the war.
About 66% of Danes, 63% of Swedes and Spaniards, 59% of Britons, 53% of Germans and Italians, and 52% of French said that overall assistance to Ukraine was either insufficient or almost insufficient. However, few believe that their country should increase support.
A minority – ranging from 29% in Sweden to 21% in the UK and Germany, to 14% in France and only 11% in Italy – believed that their government should increase aid to Ukraine, with a larger share of respondents in each country saying it should either be maintained or reduced.
When it came to specific measures, such as strengthening sanctions, supplying more weapons, sending more troops to support NATO members in Eastern Europe, or coordinating airstrikes against Russian targets in Ukraine, support was stable or lower than before.
When asked what they thought the situation would be like in a year’s time, few Western Europeans believed that either Russia or Ukraine would win, with most believing that both countries would either continue to fight or reach a peaceful settlement.
A settlement was seen as more likely in Denmark (47%), Germany (40%), the United Kingdom and France (38%), and Italy (36%), while continued fighting was seen as a slightly more likely scenario in Spain (36%) and Sweden (35%).
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/26/support-for-ukraine-russia-war-yougov-poll-survey
Pope Francis has called for negotiations between Ukraine and Russia to end the war caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
In his traditional Christmas address, the Pope said that “courage is needed to open the door” to dialogue “in order to achieve a just and lasting peace” between the two sides.
His call came after a large-scale Russian attack on Ukrainian energy facilities on the same day, which Ukraine said involved at least 184 missiles and drones.
Earlier this year, Ukraine strongly rejected the pontiff’s call for Kyiv to negotiate an end to the war and “have the courage to raise the white flag.”
His message Urbi et Orbi (To the City and the World) also addressed other conflicts.
Addressing thousands of people gathered in St. Peter’s Square, the 88-year-old Pope said: “Let the sound of weapons be silenced in war-torn Ukraine and beyond.”
“I invite every person and all people of all nations… to become pilgrims of hope, to silence the sound of weapons and to overcome division,” he said.
Repeating his Christmas message from last year, Pope Francis also called for a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages held by Hamas.
“I am thinking of the Christian communities in Israel and Palestine, especially in Gaza, where the humanitarian situation is extremely difficult,” he said.
He asked that “the door of dialogue and peace be open.”
The war in Gaza began after the Hamas group attacked Israel on October 7, 2023. The militants killed about 1200 people and took 251 more hostages in Gaza. According to the Gaza Ministry of Health, which is run by Hamas, more than 45,000 Palestinians have been killed as a result of Israel’s offensive.
Earlier this week, the Pope twice referred to Israel’s attacks as “cruelty,” which drew a sharp rebuke from Israel, which called the remarks “particularly disappointing.”
Pope Francis also said that his thoughts are with the Christian communities in Lebanon and Syria, where rebels recently overthrew Syrian President Bashar al-Assad after 24 years in power. The Christian population in Syria has declined since the start of the war in 2011, and according to some reports, it is now only a fraction of the pre-war number of 1.5 million.
Syria’s minorities have expressed fears about their future in the country after Islamist rebels came to power – although the leading rebel group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, has said that all faiths will be protected.
Experts expect domestic violence to increase during the holidays
2,777 criminal proceedings on domestic violence were recorded in 11 months of 2024, according to the Prosecutor General’s Office. The number of cases has been growing every year since the start of the great war. About 80% of cases go to court. In 76% of cases, women seek help. However, recently, there has been an increase in reports of domestic violence against the elderly: now it is every third call for help.
The level of domestic violence dropped sharply in 2022, probably due to the beginning of the full-scale invasion: 1,500 cases were opened under Article 126-1 “Domestic Violence” throughout the year. Since then, the number of cases has only increased. Thus, 2.7 thousand cases have been recorded this year, while last year there were 5% fewer cases. The number of appeals is 17% higher than in 2021.
It is worth noting that the detection rate in such cases is quite high: 85% of all cases opened this year have already been served with a notice of suspicion, and 80% of proceedings have been referred to court.
According to Alyona Kryvuliak, director of the National Hotlines and Social Assistance Department at La Strada-Ukraine, the most common causes of domestic violence include an increase in the level of aggression among Ukrainians due to the war, excessive alcohol consumption, and a deteriorating financial situation.
In 2024, the highest number of appeals was in January: 435 criminal cases were opened. For comparison, on average, 250 cases were opened per month. Alyona Kryvuliak notes that the winter holidays are the peak period for reports of domestic violence, and alcohol is the most common provoking factor. Usually, such an aggravation is observed in families where violence is a common practice.
This is not to say that alcohol is the root cause of domestic violence. At the same time, there is a problem that Ukrainians are not trained to relieve stress in a safe way, and many people reduce it with the help of various substances. Human aggression, even without a state of altered consciousness, takes on serious dimensions against the backdrop of war, and under the influence of alcohol and drugs, the level of aggression becomes more threatening.
Understanding the practice of previous years, this problem, unfortunately, will not go away. That is why it is very likely that on the night of December 31 to January 1 at one in the morning or at half past two, we will already receive calls about domestic violence.
76% of all victims of domestic violence this year are women. However, since the beginning of the full-scale war, there have been more cases where men seek help. For example, before the start of the full-scale war, 80% of appeals were from women and 20% were from men.
Among men, the most frequent callers are elderly people who face violence from their adult children and grandchildren, mainly for financial reasons.
Overall, the level of domestic violence against older Ukrainians has been gradually increasing since 2021. The hotline received 9.8 thousand calls from people aged 60 and older in the first 9 months of this year. Every third appeal comes from people of respectable age. This is already more than in the whole of 2021, when there were 9.3 thousand calls.
If you or someone you know is suffering from domestic violence, call the special hotlines: 0 800 500 335 or 116 123.
https://opendatabot.ua/analytics/domestic-violence-elders
The Cayman Islands (aka Cayman) has captured about 10% of the US offshore life reinsurance market, according to an estimate in US regulatory filings, Gallagher Re reports on its website. It stresses that the Cayman Islands is well known as a major offshore financial center, but is looking to enter new sectors.
Assets linked to international insurance companies in the Cayman Islands have more than doubled from $71.2 billion at the end of the first half of 2023 to $154 billion at the end of the third quarter of 2024, according to the islands’ regulator, the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority (CIMA).
According to Moody’s, Bermuda remains the unchallenged leader, accounting for about 81% of cross-border reinsurance transactions from the US. However, Cayman’s growing importance has caught the eye. Mark Rowan, CEO of private equity group Apollo, which owns the Athene life insurance business, said in November that he wants to add a “caveat word” regarding the islands.
While the jurisdiction may not be as strict as Bermuda, it has its own risk-based solvency calculations that determine capital levels. Some Cayman-based companies have a customized approach to risk-based capital (RBC), while others apply the standard model. When considering any counterparty, it is important to assess how that entity measures and maintains adequate capital, the report stresses.
Jewish observers begin celebrating the Festival of Lights Hanukkah on Wednesday at sunset.
Tradition connects Hanukkah with the Jewish uprising in 167 B.C. against the Syrian king Antiochus IV, who wanted to force the Jews to join the ancient Greek polytheism. After the invaders were expelled from Israel and Jerusalem was taken, the Jews rebuilt their desecrated and partially destroyed temple. On the day of its consecration, the main temple lamp, the menorah, was to be lit, and its fire was to be kept burning constantly. But there was very little oil for the lamp, and according to Jewish tradition, it took eight days to make a new one. When the menorah was lit with the oil they found, the fire burned without interruption for eight days while the new oil was being prepared.
To commemorate this, Hanukkah is celebrated for eight days, with one new candle lit every night in a special eight-candle candlestick.
Hanukkah celebrations will last eight days and end at nightfall on January 2.
