The gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine after a decrease in the first quarter of 2023 by 10.5% against the first quarter of 2022 in the second and third quarters switched to growth, is indicated in the explanatory note to the government’s draft state budget for 2024.
“According to estimates of the Ministry of Economy, at the end of eight months, growth is 3%,” the document says.
According to it, “certain types of economic activities” managed to quickly adapt to the consequences of the destruction of the dam of the Kakhovskaya HPP.
“Better than expected results of economic activity are due to the rapid adaptation of enterprises to the new conditions of activity together with the recovery of domestic demand, which was the traditional driver of growth of the Ukrainian economy in previous years,” – noted in the explanatory note.
First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy Yulia Sviridenko announced last week that the forecast for GDP growth in 2023 had been raised to 4%, but the explanatory note still says that the economy will grow by 2.8% this year with inflation at 14.7%, although it fell to 8.6% in August.
According to the explanatory note, the Ministry of Economy as of mid-June this year predicted GDP growth next year by 5% with inflation falling to 10.8% at the end of the year.
The National Bank of Ukraine in late July raised its forecast for Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2023 from 2% to 2.9%, but lowered it for 2024 from 4.3% to 3.5%. In addition, the NBU improved its inflation estimate this year from 14.8% to 10.6%, and next year – to 8.5%.
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