The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) increased the forecast for the harvest of grain and oilseeds in Ukraine in 2022 by 4.4% compared to the May forecast – up to 69.4 million tons from 66.5 million tons, according to the UGA website on Wednesday.
At the same time, the assessment by the association of sown areas under these crops increased by 1.6% compared to forecasts in May – up to 19.1 million hectares from 18.8 million hectares.
“Ukrainian farmers, despite the difficult wartime conditions, minefields and hostilities due to the aggressive war of the Russian Federation, continue to courageously fight for the harvest so that Ukraine has enough grain and can export part of the crop to the world market. This year, Ukraine can get 69 .4 million tons of grain and oilseeds from an area of about 19.1 million hectares,” the UGA said in a statement.
At the same time, the export of grain and oilseeds from Ukraine in the 2022/2023 marketing year (MY, July-June) can reach 31.5 million tons, subject to a significant increase in the throughput capacity of border crossings on the western borders of Ukraine. Given the current throughput capacity, Ukraine can count on the export of about 25-30 million tons of crops in the 2022/2023 marketing year that has begun.
According to the results of 2021/2022 MY, it is expected that the transitional crop balances in the country will amount to about 25.9 million tons (+0.9 million tons compared to UGA forecasts in May). In 2022/2023 MY, this figure may increase to 36.6-48 million tons due to the inability to export agricultural products at the usual pace for Ukraine. In May, the association predicted transitional balances for 2022/2023 MY at the level of 31-43 million tons.
According to UGA forecasts, in 2022, a wheat harvest is expected at the level of 20.8 million tons (+8.3% compared to the organization’s May forecast); 27.3 million tons of corn (+4.6%); 6.6 million tons of barley (forecast kept); 9 million tons of sunflower (forecast kept); 2.2 million tons of soybeans (+4.7%); 1.5 million tons of rapeseed (+13.3%).
UGA also predicts the export of wheat in 2022/2023 MY at the level of 10 million tons, corn – 10 million tons, barley – 2 million tons, sunflower – 6 million tons, soybeans – 1.8 million tons, rapeseed – 1.45 million tons.
“In general, the export of grains and oilseeds in 2022/2023 MY can be expected at the indicated level, if Ukraine, under the blockade of the Black Sea ports, can double the throughput of other logistics directions, including railway crossings at the borders with the EU countries,” the association explained in message.
At the same time, the unblocking of the Black Sea ports will greatly simplify the logistics and cost of transporting grain for export, and producers will be able to make a big profit for the grown crop in accordance with the high prices for agricultural crops that are currently prevailing on the world market. “Unblocking Ukrainian ports and ensuring the safety of navigation in the Black Sea is the only way to quickly and effectively resume Ukrainian grain exports to countries in dire need. The lack and high cost of food can cause, according to UN estimates, famine in many poor countries of the world, mass protests and riots, and as a result mass migration of people from Africa and the Middle East to the EU,” the UGA summed up in the message.
As reported with reference to the data of the State Statistics Service, in 2021 Ukraine harvested a record harvest of grain and leguminous crops in the amount of 85.7 million tons, which is 32% more than in 2020. In total, 32.07 million tons of wheat (+28.9%), 41.87 million tons of corn (+38.2%) and 9.42 million tons of barley (+23.3%) were harvested.
Ukraine in 2021 also harvested 16.38 million tons of sunflower (+25% compared to 2020), 10.8 million tons of sugar beet (+18.1%), 3.5 million tons of soybeans (+24.4%), 2.92 million tons of rapeseed and 42 thousand tons of oilseed flax (an increase of 3.7 times).
The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) is an association of producers, processors and large grain exporters who annually export about 90% of Ukrainian grain products.
