Dragon Capital has downgraded the forecast for Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2021 from 5.3% in the February forecast to 4.6%, while it expects the rate of UAH 27.5/$1 at the end of this year and UAH 28/$1 – next year, head of the company Tomas Fiala has said.
The decline in the gross domestic product of Ukraine (GDP) in January-June 2021 due to lockdown restrictions amounted to 0.6 percentage points (p.p.), Deputy Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Yuriy Heletiy has said.
The Ministry of Economy has estimated the growth of Ukraine’s GDP in April-June 2021 at 6%, for January-May – at 0.7%, according to the materials on the ministry’s website.
The National Bank of Ukraine improved its forecast for the current account deficit from 0.8% of GDP to 0.4% of GDP in 2021 and left unchanged the forecast for real GDP growth in 2021 at 3.8%, the regulator said on the website.
The National Bank of Ukraine in the updated Inflation Report published on the website again worsened the estimate of the growth of Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter of 2021 (hereinafter compared to the same period in 2020), to 7.5% from 8.7% in April and from 11.3% in the January report.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-May 2021 increased by 25.5% compared to January-May 2020, to $ 1.078 billion from $ 859 million.
The negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-June 2021 decreased by 8.36%, to $1.25 billion with an increase in exports of almost 30.3%, to $29.97 billion, imports – by 28.4%, to $31.22 billion, according to data from the State Customs Service.
The growth of consumer prices in Ukraine at the end of June 2021 decreased to 0.2% from 1.3% at the end of May. In annual terms, inflation remained at 9.5%.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) expects inflation to rise to 11% in 2021, according to a chart released by the central bank.
Revenues of the state budget of Ukraine in June 2021 amounted to UAH 106.7 billion, which is 15.9% more than the planned figure and 18.7% less than in June 2020, according to data from the State Treasury Service.
The deficit of the general fund of the state budget of Ukraine in June 2021 increased to UAH 18.5 billion, and since the beginning of the year – to UAH 49.8 billion, the Ministry of Finance has said.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) on July 22 will keep the refinancing rate at 7.5% per annum, predict the majority of the bankers surveyed by the Interfax-Ukraine agency.
The total public debt of Ukraine in June 2021 grew by 1.09% in U.S. dollars and amounted to $92.52 billion, while it fell by 0.09% in hryvnias, to UAH 2.514 trillion, according to data on the website of the Ministry of Finance. Industrial production in Ukraine in June 2021 increased by 1.1% compared to June 2020, while in May the growth was 5.4%, and in April – 13%, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The volume of construction work performed in Ukraine in January-June 2021 increased by 0.2% compared to the same period in 2020.
Retail goods turnover in Ukraine in June 2021 year-over-year grew by 13% year-over-year in comparable prices, while in May the figure was 22.7%, the State Statistics Service has reported.
Publisher of “Open4Business”, PhD in Economics, Maksim Urakin
