The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reduced its currency sales on the interbank market by $53 million, or 8.4%, to $585.8 million last week, with almost no currency purchases, according to statistics on the regulator’s website. As noted by the NBU, it purchased $0.50 million worth of currency for the first time in two weeks.
Data published by the regulator during this period show that the balance was negative throughout last week, fluctuating from $11.3 million on Monday to $11.6 million on Tuesday, $13.2 million on Wednesday, and $8.5 million on Thursday.
The official hryvnia exchange rate fluctuated from 41.4018 UAH/$1 at the beginning of the week, on Wednesday the hryvnia devalued to 41.5566/$1, and by the end of the week the rate was 41.4466 UAH/$1.
On the cash market, the hryvnia exchange rate remained virtually unchanged at the end of the week: the buying rate was approximately 41.40 UAH/$1, and the selling rate was around 41.45 UAH/$1.
“The end of May 2025 is characterized by moderate stability in Ukraine’s currency market in the absence of shock changes, despite external turbulence and a complex geopolitical background. The national currency maintains a controlled exchange rate against the US dollar, while the euro/hryvnia pair continues to show increased volatility, which is associated with both global trends and internal structural shifts in the currency preferences of businesses and the population,” experts from KYT Group, a major player in the cash currency exchange market, described the situation.
In their opinion, in the medium term of 2-4 months, the dollar-hryvnia exchange rate will return to the range of 41.80-42.50 UAH/USD, provided that imports grow, domestic inflation rises, or significant signals regarding external financing are received.
In the long term, over 6+ months, KYT Group expects a likely movement towards 43.00-45.00 UAH/$1 or even higher.
The review is available at the link – https://interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1080324.html
