Ukraine’s gross domestic product growth will slow to 3% this year from 5.3% last year, but will accelerate to 6% next year, according to the EBRD’s updated regional economic report released on Wednesday.
“Despite Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2023, supported by a record harvest, damage to electricity infrastructure from recent shelling is one of the factors likely to limit further growth in 2024,” the bank said, also highlighting the risks of damage to port infrastructure.
He noted that the forecast for Ukraine coincides with the overall forecast for 2024 for the regions in which the EBRD operates (Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean).
“Regional growth accelerated this year, up from 2.5% in 2023, despite challenges posed by global geopolitical tensions, including increased trade restrictions. In 2025, the EBRD regions are projected to grow further at 3.6%,” the report says.
The Bank notes that the growth of the Ukrainian economy in 2023 was driven not only by record harvests, but also by increased defense spending, which supported domestic demand, but net exports continued to decline. Among other positive factors, he pointed to the successful restoration of electricity supply after Russian shelling of civilian infrastructure last winter, as well as the resilience and adaptability of Ukrainian business.
As stated in the document, an additional stabilizing factor in 2023 was the timely receipt of external financing, which made it possible to keep inflation at the target level of about 5%. Thanks to these inflows, the country’s official international reserves increased to a record level, but the level of public debt also rose to almost 90% of GDP.
“However, in 2024, new challenges emerged, in particular, due to the prospect of a protracted war of attrition and uncertainty in obtaining external financing, which lasted for several months. Limited domestic demand, labor shortages and insufficient investment are also factors that negatively affect the growth rate,” the EBRD stated.
At the same time, it points out that a significant positive factor was the opening of a new coastal Black Sea export corridor. This has partially reduced uncertainty about the security of using the Black Sea for exports of not only grain, but also metals and mining products, which have suffered the most over the past two years.
The report also highlights a sharp increase in foreign direct investment (FDI) from Ukraine to emerging Europe in 2022 from low levels before, driven by the arrival of skilled workers from Ukraine to neighboring countries, with software and IT services driving FDI.
In general, the EBRD report, subtitled “Taming Inflation,” says that inflationary pressures in the bank’s regions of operation have eased compared to last year, which saw an economic downturn due to higher energy prices as a result of the war in Ukraine and the post-war recovery.
The report describes how geopolitical tensions are affecting the EBRD’s countries of operation, leading to rapid trade fragmentation and increased defense spending, and thus a reduction in the so-called “peace dividend” – the economic benefits of reduced defense spending and reinvestment of the resulting savings in the civilian economy. Although growth is projected to continue in the bank’s regions, the updated forecast is 0.2 percentage points (p.p.) lower than last year’s September forecast.
Due to lower energy and food prices after a sharp rise in 2022, inflation in the EBRD regions fell to an average of 6.3% in March 2024 from a peak of 17.5% in October 2022. Although this fall was faster than expected a year ago, inflation is still 2 percentage points above pre-crisis levels. This is in line with trends in developed economies, where inflation has also declined but still exceeds central bank targets. The forecast also emphasizes the slower pace of inflation decline in EBRD countries with higher budget deficits and weaker macroeconomic frameworks.
In the report, the bank improved its estimate of Russia’s GDP growth in 2024 from 1% to 2.5%, but expects it to slow to 1.5% next year.
For Poland, the forecast for this year has been improved by 0.2 percentage points to 2.9% with an acceleration to 3.5% next year, while for Turkey it has been lowered by 0.3 percentage points this year to 2.7% with an acceleration to 3% next year.
On Wednesday, tobacco manufacturer Philip Morris International officially opened a new factory in Lviv region, in which it has invested $30 million.
“The first line is already in operation. The second line is almost completed and will start operating in June… In total, five lines will be installed, 10 billion cigarettes will be produced, which will fully meet the needs of the local market of Ukraine,” said Philip Morris Ukraine (PMU) CEO Maxim Barabash at the opening of the factory.
He emphasized that the focus of the production is to cover the market demand for cigarettes.
According to Barabash, there are no plans to expand production for export or manufacture other products.
According to PMU, 250 jobs will be created at the factory. By now, the company already employs about 100 people relocated from the Kharkiv factory, which was “mothballed” on February 24, 2024, the day of the Russian invasion, and another 150 people are planned to be relocated by the end of the year.
“My dream for the future after the victory is that we have two factories. One would produce cigarettes, and the other would be in Kharkiv, working on new products that would be relevant and relevant at the time when this comes true,” Barabash summarized.
According to him, this year Philip Morris celebrates 30 years of operation in Ukraine. During this time, the company has invested about $750 million in the Ukrainian economy and is one of the largest taxpayers.
Philip Morris was spun off from Altria in 2008 and is one of the world’s largest tobacco manufacturers. The company’s revenue for 2023 increased by 10.7% compared to 2022 to $35.2 billion, and for the first quarter of 2024 – by 9.7% to $8.79 billion. The report states that Ukraine accounts for approximately 2% of total sales in physical terms and 1% in monetary terms.
In 2022, PMI reduced shipments to the Ukrainian market by 30.1% to 11.07 billion cigarettes and tobacco sticks due to the war, but in 2023 it managed to increase shipments of finished products by 8.4%, including 14.9% in the fourth quarter. Last October, the company announced that it had recovered its share of the Ukrainian market to 24% after it fell to 14% from 28.5% in the first months after Russia’s invasion.
Prior to the launch of the new factory, PMU was forced to import products from eight PMI factories outside the country and a temporary partnership with another international manufacturer in Ukraine.
In addition to cigarettes, PMI develops and manufactures smokeless products, such as systems for electrically heating tobacco, POD systems containing nicotine, and nicotine products for oral administration. Sales of smokeless products accounted for 39% of PMI’s total net revenue in the first quarter of 2024.
The Cabinet of Ministers has ordered an internal investigation into Deputy Minister of Education and Science Mykhailo Vinnytsky at the request of the National Agency for the Prevention of Corruption (NAPC).
According to Decree No. 428 of May 14, the government, in accordance with the Law on Prevention of Corruption and at the request of the NAPC, has ordered an internal investigation into Deputy Minister of Education and Science Mykhailo Vinnytsky.
It is noted that the Ministry of Education and Science has been designated as the body responsible for organizing the official investigation.
According to the decision, the internal investigation should be conducted within two months.
Population forecast for Ukraine in 2030-2100
Source: Open4Business.com.ua and experts.news
In the first nine months of the 2023-2024 marketing year (MY), Kernel Agro Holding exported 1 million tons of sunflower oil in bulk to almost 30 countries, the company’s press service reported on Facebook.
“We remain the largest agricultural exporter of sunflower oil and are among the TOP-3 total exports of Ukraine,” the statement said.
According to the agroholding, about 50% of the total volume of sunflower oil was supplied to India, 8% to the UAE, 7% to China and Spain, 5% to Italy, and 2% to Iraq, Singapore, Switzerland, Turkey, and Hong Kong.
“To expand the export opportunities of the entire industry, last year we started offering our infrastructure capacities to other agricultural producers in the market. At the company’s terminals in Odesa region, we provide transshipment services for grain crops and vegetable oil,” Kernel said.
In addition, the agricultural holding is completing the construction of one of the largest oil extraction plants in Europe in Starokonstantinov, Khmelnytsky region. Its processing capacity will be 1 million tons of seeds per year.
“This will allow us to increase the export of vegetable oil, a value-added product, and support agricultural producers in the region by providing them with opportunities to sell their products,” the agricultural holding explained.
As reported, Kernel processed 816 thsd tonnes of sunflower seeds in the third quarter of fiscal year (FY) 2024, up 10% year-on-year.
At the same time, sales of sunflower oil in January-March 2024 increased by 44% year-on-year to 394 thsd tonnes, totaling 1,103 thsd tonnes in the first nine months of 2024.
Before the war, Kernel Agro Holding was the world’s leading producer of sunflower oil (approximately 7% of global production) and its exports (approximately 12%). It is one of the largest producers and sellers of bottled oil in Ukraine. In addition, it is engaged in the cultivation and sale of agricultural products.
Kernel’s net profit for FY2023 amounted to $299 million, while the company ended the previous year with a net loss of $41 million. The agricultural holding’s revenue for FY2023 decreased by 35% to $3.455 billion, but EBITDA increased 2.5 times to $544 million.
In the first half of FY2024, Kernel’s net profit fell 3.6 times compared to the first half of FY2023, to $102 million, and EBITDA halved to $223 million, with revenue down 16% to $1.59 billion.
The Tchaikovsky National Music Academy of Ukraine has topped the nationwide ranking of artistic higher education institutions presented by the Institute of Sociological Research of the Kyiv National Economic University named after V. Hetman and the research company Active Group.
According to Oleksandr Poznyi, the coordinator of the project to create the rating, director of the Active Group research company, artistic higher education institutions are a very complex and important social institution that requires a specific methodology for studying.
“That’s why we combine the efforts of researchers, scholars and the best practices of the international community to improve our ranking of artistic higher education institutions,” he said at a press conference at Interfax-Ukraine on Tuesday.
Pozniy emphasized that the main mission of the rating is to evaluate artistic institutions, as the existing ratings are designed for classical universities and do not take into account the unique aspects of art education and the specifics of evaluating art institutions. This, in turn, affects the objectivity and significance of these rankings in the context of art education, resulting in the underrepresentation of artistic institutions in the rankings.
“This is an important step in creating a transparent and objective system for evaluating artistic educational institutions, which allows us to adequately assess their contribution to the cultural development of the country. The ranking is designed to reflect the uniqueness of each artistic institution. We have applied comprehensive criteria that include teaching, research, international activity and financial stability,” said Yulia Gorbova, Director of the Institute of Sociological Research at the Kyiv National Economic University named after V. Hetman.
According to her, the methodology of this year’s ranking was improved as part of the joint research work of Active Group, the Institute of Higher Education and the Institute of Sociological Research of the Kyiv National Economic University named after V. Hetman. The study searched, systematized, and analyzed international and local general and subject (industry) rankings, with a special focus on the rankings of art education institutions and/or educational programs.
Art higher education institutions were analyzed by 45 parameters grouped into six blocks: “Teaching and Learning”, “Science and Research”, “Impact of Higher Education Institutions on Society Development”, “Internationalization”, “Institutional Reputation”, and “Financial Sustainability”. The share of each group of indicators and the weight of each individual criterion was determined based on the analysis of international experience and adjusted based on the results of an expert survey of representatives of the field of art education.
The authors of the ranking also used multi-criteria approaches to evaluating the activities of higher education institutions based on the processing of data that can be obtained from open sources and whose validity can be verified.
The sources of data for the ranking of artistic HEIs were: EDEBO, NAQA, Rector’s Report, Report on Scientific Activities, Estimates, Financial Statements of HEIs, HEI Website, Scopus, Web of Science, OpenAlex, Ukrainian National H-index Ranking, Google Scholar, Transparent Ranking, QS, UniRank, services for measuring brand reputation on the Internet and social networks.
As a result, the all-Ukrainian ranking of art universities for the 2023-2024 academic year was as follows:
| Place in the ranking | Result | |
| Tchaikovsky National Music Academy of Ukraine | 1 | 68,6 |
| Kharkiv State Academy of Design and Arts | 2 | 47,7 |
| Kharkiv State Academy of Culture | 3 | 43,8 |
| Lviv National Academy of Arts | 4 | 43,5 |
| National Academy of Fine Arts and Architecture | 5 | 41,7 |
| Kharkiv National University of Arts named after I.P. Kotlyarevsky | 6 | 39,6 |
| Kyiv National University of Theater, Cinema and Television named after I.K. Karpenko-Kary | 7 | 38 |
| A.V. Nezhdanova Odesa National Music Academy | 8 | 32,2 |
| Mykola Lysenko Lviv National Music Academy | 9 | 32,1 |
| Mykhailo Boichuk Kyiv State Academy of Decorative and Applied Arts and Design | 10 | 27,2 |
| National Academy of Management Personnel of Culture and Arts | 11 | 27,1 |
| Transcarpathian Academy of Arts | 12 | 14,5 |
| Luhansk State Academy of Culture and Arts | 13 | 12,3 |
The researchers plan to continue this assessment of artistic institutions in order to track the dynamics of the development of Ukrainian art education institutions. The project team invites everyone to join the work on the development of the ranking, in particular, to improve the criteria for evaluating art institutions.
