Housing prices in the European Union fell by 1.5% in the fourth quarter of 2022, writes the Financial Times citing the EU statistical service Eurostat.
Housing became cheaper during the quarter for the first time since 2015. Prices fell in 15 of the 27 EU countries amid tightening standards and rising lending costs.
Denmark (6.5 percent) and Germany (5 percent) recorded the largest price declines.
“In the coming quarters, we expect further deterioration in the price dynamics in the housing market,” the newspaper quotes the words of economist Ani Heimann of S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Over time, a lack of investment by construction companies will limit supply and stabilize prices, Heimann believes.
Data on the state of the market in some countries suggest that in early 2023, housing continues to get cheaper, said FT. For example, in the Netherlands, its value decreased by 1.5% in January-February.
The decline in the real gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the same period last year will slow down to 19% from 35% and 30.8%, respectively, in the fourth and third quarters of 2022, such is the forecast of the National Bank Ukraine has published the Inflation Report on its website.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has downgraded its forecast for the growth of the Ukrainian economy in 2023 to 1% from 8%, which it expected in September last year, according to the updated Regional Economic Prospects published on Thursday.
Losses in annual GDP growth in 2023 will amount to 1.9 percentage points (p.p.), taking into account the positive effect of 0.5 p.p. due to the use of generators by businesses, and in 2024 losses will decrease to 0.6 p.p. thanks to the gradual recovery of the system, according to the baseline scenario of the macroeconomic forecast of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
The negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in 2022 increased by 2.3 times compared to 2021 – to $11.125 billion from $4.771 billion, the State Statistics Service reported on Tuesday.
The growth of consumer prices in Ukraine in January 2022 accelerated to 0.8% from 0.7% in December and November, which, however, is significantly lower than 2.5% in October and 1.9% in September. According to it, in January last year, inflation was 1.3%, so in annual terms, in January 2023, it decreased to 26% from 26.6%.
As of February 15, foreign aid accounted for 68.8% of the sources of financing the state budget deficit since the beginning of this year, Head of the Verkhovna Rada budget committee Roksolana Pidlasa told Interfax-Ukraine.
The majority of members of the monetary policy committee of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) at a meeting on January 25 noted that they consider the base key policy rate forecast to be realistic with it remaining at the level of up to 25% until at least the first quarter of 2024, the NBU website reported.
In January, Ukraine exported 25% less agricultural products through the grain corridor than in December due to the deliberate actions of Russian inspectors to delay vessels in the Bosphorus.
The volume of construction work performed in Ukraine in January-September 2022 decreased by 56.5% compared to the same period in 2021, to UAH 66.3 billion, according to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine.
Economic Monitoring’s Project Manager – PhD in Economics, Maksim Urakin
JSC Ukrgasvydobuvannya plans to start drilling two horizontal wells in 2023, the company’s CEO Oleh Tolmachov said.
“We will start drilling the first two wells this year. We will see the results in 2024. We are working on the technological design of such wells,” he said in an interview with NV.
According to him, horizontal drilling will require additional pumps and other specific points, as well as the import of certain technological solutions. “But 85-90% of the equipment that will be used in this process is already in operation at Ukrgasvydobuvannya,” Tolmachov said.
The UGV CEO estimates the cost of drilling a vertical well with a depth of 4000 meters at about $5 million, while a horizontal well costs more than $25 million.
“But the latter allow us to get high gas flow rates even from tight reservoirs. Ukraine is now in the same situation as the US and Canada were in the late 90s. Our fields are depleted by more than 80%. That’s why we have to drill such unconventional wells, which are more expensive and technologically more complicated. But they produce much more gas,” he said.
Tolmachev believes that investing in gas production in Ukraine is an attractive story, as the price of gas in Europe is 5-6 times higher than in the United States.
“At the same time, Ukrainian projects are similar to those that investors in the United States, Canada, and Saudi Arabia work with. But in terms of economic indicators, they should look much stronger here. So I think foreign partners will be interested in joining Ukrainian gas production,” he said.
According to him, the company has signed protocols of intent with two North American companies, with whom consultations will be held on how to adapt American technologies to Ukrainian realities and technical issues.
“We are also working to gain access to various grants and funds in the US and EU that they allocate for Ukraine. The goal is to present a ready-made story, a financial model with a clear mechanism for field development immediately after the victory, so that foreign companies can invest in Ukrainian gas production,” Tolmachov explained.
As reported, Ukrgasvydobuvannya aims to increase its own natural gas production by one billion cubic meters in 2023 – up to 13.5 billion cubic meters.
“In 2022, Ukrgasvydobuvannya, 100% owned by Naftogaz of Ukraine, produced 12.5 bcm of natural gas (commercial), which is 3% less than in 2021. In 2023, the company plans to increase drilling by 1.5 times compared to last year – up to 300 thousand meters.
The global art market will grow 3% in 2022, according to the annual Art Basel and UBS Global Art Market Report. Last year, art sales totaled $67.8 billion, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 figure ($64.4 billion) and coming close to the 2014 record level ($68.2 billion).
Sales in open trades fell 1% to $26.8 billion, including due to the cancellation of a number of auctions in China. In the dealer business, the figure rose 7% to $37.2 billion, thanks in particular to fairs, whose share of sales rose to 35% from 27% a year earlier.
Once again, the U.S. led the way in regional sales (45%), followed by the U.K. (18%) and China (17%).
MarketWatch’s Claire McAndrew pointed to “a big positive factor in the U.S. and a big negative factor in China,” which generally offset each other. The U.S. art market is recovering from a significant decline during the pandemic coronavirus and in 2022 renewed its high, increasing by 8% – to $ 30.2 billion.
Prime Minister Denis Shmygal discussed with Robert Gabek, Vice Chancellor, Minister of Economy and Climate Protection of Germany and representatives of German companies the necessary mechanisms to expand production and presence at the Ukrainian market.
“First of all, we are talking about the insurance of military risks for business, which will help to activate economic activity in Ukraine. We already have a pilot project with MIGA and the first projects with the American company DFC. We are working on finding a similar instrument with Germany, “- wrote Shmygal in his Telegram-channel.
Prime Minister stressed that Ukraine has potential in the areas of critical raw materials, processing and military-tech, which can bring many advantages and prospects for business.
“We also count on the support, the participation of Germany and German companies in the post-war reconstruction of our state,” summed up Shmygal.
The U.S. dollar is strengthening against the euro, yen and pound sterling in trading on Tuesday on expectations that an unexpected decision by several OPEC+ states to cut production will prolong a period of high inflation in the world and delay the end of the cycle of monetary tightening by global central banks.
Such a decision could make it “a little more difficult” for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to deal with high inflation, said James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) of St. Louis.
“This decision by oil-producing countries was unexpected, but whether it will have long-term consequences is an open question,” Bullard said in an interview with Bloomberg on Monday. – Oil prices fluctuate all the time, and it’s hard to track them accurately. Their rise will affect the rate of inflation and make our job a little more difficult.”
According to Bullard, the Fed’s benchmark interest rate, currently at 4.75-5%, should be raised to 5.5-5.75%.
The ICE-calculated index, which shows the dollar’s performance against six currencies (euro, Swiss franc, yen, Canadian dollar, pound sterling and Swedish krona), added 0.11% during Tuesday’s trading, while the broader WSJ Dollar Index added 0.15%.
The euro/dollar pair is trading at $1.0893 as of 9:20 a.m., up from $1.0905 at Monday’s market close.
The pound/dollar exchange rate is at $1.2407, compared to $1.2417 the day before.
The value of the U.S. currency in a pair with the yen increased to 132.76 yen against 132.42 yen at the end of the previous session.
The Australian dollar weakened to $0.6755 from $0.6786 a day earlier following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision to halt the key interest rate hike.
The RBA kept Tuesday’s rate at 3.6 percent a year, its lowest since May 2012. The rate has been cumulatively raised by 350 bps since last May.
RBA governor Philip Lowe, however, warned that the central bank is ready to resume raising the rate if necessary.
“The RBA Board of Governors believes that further monetary policy tightening may be necessary to return inflation to the central bank’s target,” Lowe said in a statement posted on the RBA website. – Today’s decision to maintain the same rate level gives us time to assess the health of the economy and its prospects amid serious uncertainty.”
