Oil prices could soar into the stratosphere and reach $380 per barrel in a worst-case scenario in which Russia cuts fuel supplies in response to Western sanctions, J.P. analysts predict. Morgan Chase & Co.
The Russian Federation can afford to cut production by 5 million barrels per day without causing excessive harm to the economy, Bloomberg quoted bank analysts as saying. Moscow may take such a measure due to various possible measures by the West, including imposing a ceiling on the price buyers pay for Russian oil.
At the same time, the consequences of such actions for the rest of the world will be catastrophic. A 3 million bpd production cut would push Brent oil prices up to $190 per barrel, while in a worst-case scenario, if production falls by 5 million bpd, prices will soar to $380 per barrel, experts say.
“The most obvious and likely risk associated with imposing a price cap is that Russia may decide not to participate in this scheme and instead retaliate by cutting exports,” the analysts wrote. “It is likely that the government may retaliate by cutting production to harm the West. The lack of supply in the world oil market is playing into the hands of Russia.”
September futures for Brent crude on the London ICE Futures exchange by 10:23 Moscow time are trading at around $111.8 per barrel, futures for WTI oil for August on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) by this time are about $108.6 per barrel. barrel.
Dynamics of changes in discount rate of NBU
NBU
Ukraine proposes to create recovery offices in partner countries with a head office in Kyiv, Prime Minister Denys Shmygal said.
“The key principle that the President of Ukraine proposed when considering a future recovery plan is the principle of regional responsibility of our partners for the regions, cities in Ukraine. There are already some countries that have chosen recovery priorities for themselves. We urge others to join the process,” Shmygalya quoted press service of the government on the results of a video conference with the ambassadors of the Great Semka (G7), Switzerland and heads of international organizations.
The prime minister noted that, in addition to the regional approach, a parametric approach to the country’s restoration will be considered.
Among other things, the key principles of the recovery plan, according to him, should be the principle of security, the rule of law, transparency, fair transformation, green recovery, digitalization, inclusiveness, barrier-free, favorable investment climate, business development in Ukraine.
“The restoration of Ukraine is a process that requires a lot of effort. Not only financial, but also the efforts of many companies. Therefore, we expect large projects in the field of public-private partnership. We expect that foreign companies will come to Ukraine, create jobs here and pay taxes. We will offer the best conditions for companies to stay and continue their work in Ukraine even after the resumption,” Shmyhal stressed.
The prime minister noted that the key source of renewal of Ukraine should be the confiscated assets of Russia and Russian oligarchs.
“In addition, it can be preferential loans from partners, international financial organizations, banks. Another source, according to him, can be grant support and individual contributions. For this, the United24 platform was created,” the message says.
In addition, according to Shmyhal, Ukraine proposes to create recovery offices in partner countries with a head office in Kyiv.
The UK authorities are considering the possibility of confiscating frozen Russian assets in the kingdom for transfer to Ukraine, reports The Guardian.
According to the newspaper, British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said that the UK intends to follow the example of Canada and seize the assets of Russians in the United Kingdom in order to transfer them to Ukraine.
“I support this concept. We are following it very closely. Canadians have actually just passed a law that we are working on with the Home Office and the Treasury, but I certainly agree with this idea. We just need to work out all the details of this issue “, – quotes Truss edition.
She noted that the British Parliament “most likely” will need to pass a new law that allows this to happen. However, the minister added, perhaps it will be possible to do without it.
The newspaper notes that the seized funds can be transferred either to private individuals in the form of damages, or to the Ukrainian authorities.
Transit of natural gas through the GTS of Ukraine in June 2022 amounted to 1.25 billion cubic meters. m, which is the minimum monthly volume since 1991.
According to the GTS Operator of Ukraine, the volume of transit for the last month is three times less than in June 2021 (3.72 billion cubic meters), and a quarter lower than in May 2022.
At the same time, Gazprom in June used only 38% of the booked capacity (3.29 billion cubic meters) under a long-term contract. “Combined with the restriction of transit through the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline, this leads to a “drainage” of the EU gas market and an increase in prices. As a result of the manipulative actions of Gazprom, gas prices in Europe have increased by almost 42% since the beginning of June,” noted in OGTSU.
“Obviously, Russia continues to blackmail Europe with a reduction in gas supplies, which is why its exchange price today already exceeds $1,600. “with the redirection of flows through Ukraine and Poland,” added the head of the operator Sergei Makogon.
As reported, the transit of natural gas through the GTS of Ukraine in 2021 amounted to 41.6 billion cubic meters. m, which is 25.4% less than in 2020 (55.8 billion cubic meters). In general, the transit capacities of the Ukrainian GTS in 2021 were used by less than 30%.
On the Ukrainian gas transport corridor in 2021-2024. there is a mandatory “reservation” for “Gazprom” – 40 billion cubic meters. m (109.6 million cubic meters per day) after 65 billion cubic meters. m (178 million cubic meters/day) in 2020.
Australian Prime Minister Entino Albenizi announced that Ukraine will be provided with additional military-technical assistance worth $100 million.
“Today we are announcing an additional $100 million in military-technical assistance. In total, we have already provided $390 million,” he said Sunday at a briefing in Kyiv after meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
“We also provide an additional 14 armored personnel carriers and 20 Bushmaster armored vehicles. Thus, the total number of Bushmasters is 60 units,” he said.
According to the prime minister, Australia will also provide additional military equipment, drones.
“We will also provide additional assistance to the border troops of Ukraine,” he said.
According to the prime minister, “we will also reduce duties on Ukrainian goods. We will join the work of the International Court of Justice, announce additional sanctions and travel bans against 16 Russian ministers and big businessmen.”
Australia, according to the prime minister, will also ban the import of Russian gold.
