Concorde Capital investment company expects the Ukrainian economy to grow by 4.1% in 2021 with inflation of 8% and an average annual rate of UAH 27.60/$1, according to the company’s updated macroeconomic forecast publon Tuesday.
According to the forecast, at the end of the year the exchange rate will be about UAH 28.20/$1, the current account balance will remain positive – $0.5 billion and reserves will grow to $30.5 billion.
Concorde Capital estimates that GDP fell by 2.7% in the first quarter.
The company also said that the revaluation of the hryvnia stopped due to the increased risk of renewed military aggression, and the same risk led to a further weakening of nonresidents’ interest in the Ukrainian debt market.
Concorde Capital estimates the total need of the state budget for financing at $11.8 billion, of which $4.4 billion will be raised in the domestic market via government bonds, $1.8-4.6 billion from international financial institutions, which forces the country to look for another $5.5-2.8 billion elsewhere.
The company said that as of April 19, net attraction in the government bond market amounted to only UAH 6 billion, although last year the result was even worse – minus UAH 3 billion.
Concorde Capital expects growth to slow down to 3.5% next year, while inflation will drop to 5.5%.
JKX Oil & Gas with assets in Ukraine and Russia in the first quarter of 2021 reduced the average daily production of hydrocarbons by 17% compared to the first quarter of 2020, to 9,177 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), the company said on the London Stock Exchange website on Wednesday.
Production in Ukraine fell by 28%, to 3,843 boepd, including gas production by 28%, to 517,000 cubic meters per day (Mcmd), while oil and condensate by 31%, to 799,000 boepd.
Production of hydrocarbons in the Russian Federation decreased by 5% and amounted to 5,334 boepd, including gas production by 5%, to 869,000 cubic meters per day, and condensate by 11%, to 61 boepd.
JKX indicates that compared to the previous quarter, production decreased by 7%, including in Ukraine by 12% and in Russia by 3%. In particular, gas production in Ukraine decreased by 13%, oil and condensate by 8%.
The company explained the reduction in production in Ukraine due to no drilling activity taking place in the first quarter of 2021 and the loss of IG142 will which produced an average of 321 boepd before it stopped producing in the middle of February. JKX clarified that the drilling rig has remained on free of charge standby with the drilling of IG149 commencing on April 9.
The company also indicated that compared to the first quarter of 2020, the average gas price in Ukraine jumped by 43%, to $214 per 1,000 cubic meters (compared to the fourth quarter, the growth was 27%), for oil and condensate by 22%, to $60 per barrel (an increase of 22% compared to the fourth quarter).
The situation was worse in Russia, where the price of gas fell by 7% year-on-year to $52 per 1,000 cubic meters (although by the fourth quarter it grew by 4%).
The company’s cash and cash equivalents were $28.4 million at the end of March, compared with $24.3 million a quarter earlier. In addition, JKX possessed oil and gas reserves of the Ukrainian subsidiary Poltava Petroleum Company (PPC) in the amount of $2.9 million (a quarter earlier – $2.2 million), which is 1.6 million cubic meters and 38,400 barrels of oil and condensate.
JKX Oil & Gas is engaged in the exploration and production of hydrocarbons in Ukraine and the Russian Federation. Poltava Petroleum Company, owned by JKX, is one of the largest non-state oil and gas companies in Ukraine. It holds five production licenses and one for geological exploration, including pilot production.
Ratio of fertility and mortality by region in jan 2021
Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of North Macedonia Bujar Osmani during a telephone conversation with Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmytro Kuleba on Tuesday expressed North Macedonia’s solidarity with Ukraine amid the Russian escalation.
According to the MFA website, the head of the North Macedonian Foreign Ministry confirmed strong support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine within internationally recognized borders, including Crimea as an integral part of Ukrainian territory.
Bujar Osmani confirmed his readiness to visit Ukraine in the second half of 2021 at the invitation of Kuleba.
The interlocutors also paid attention to the preparation of celebrations on the occasion of the 30th anniversary of Ukraine’s independence.
Ukraine has passed the peak of the third coronavirus (COVID-19) wave, Health Minister Maksym Stepanov said.
“The height of infections is now over. We saw nearly 13,500 fewer cases over the past week than we did the week before. The same happened to hospitalizations, which reduced by 3,500,” Stepanov said at a press briefing in Kyiv on Tuesday.
There are 12 regions in the red zone, the minister said, adding that the situation had been the most difficult in Kyiv (about 75% of hospital beds with oxygen supply are occupied), as well as Kyiv region (70%), Odesa region (73%), Sumy region (69.5%), Mykolaiv and Kharkiv regions.
The United States announced that it will provide $155 million in additional development funding to Ukraine through the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) to improve the lives of the Ukrainian people, the U.S. Embassy in Ukraine said on Tuesday.
“The additional resources will be used to address key development challenges in Ukraine, including: support economic growth and improve health of Ukrainians some $34 million; enhance anti-corruption efforts some $14 million; counter Russian aggression some $63 million; strengthen democracy and governance some $44 million,” the embassy said in the statement.
The first article provides support of Ukraine’s recovery from coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic by improving essential health services; improvement of transparency and expansion of economic opportunities in energy, agriculture and finance to increase investor confidence, attract investment and improve economic investment in the agrarian sector.
Enhancing anti-corruption measures includes strengthening reforms and safeguard anti-corruption institutions to counter entrenched interests and ensure all of Ukraine’s resources benefit the Ukrainian people; reducing corrupt practices in the health sector and facilitate Ukraine’s purchases of vital medicines to reduce informal payments by patients and provide access to less expensive, quality medicines; supporting the continued development of online e-government platforms that simplify access to services and streamline how Ukrainians receive their pensions, unemployment benefits, and more.
Countering Russian aggression are planned to be used to human rights and ensure access to justice for the Ukrainians affected by Kremlin-backed aggression in the Crimea and Donbas; reduce Ukraine’s energy and economic dependence on Russia by advancing connections to Europe’s energy grid and strengthening businesses in the East; expand citizen access to high-quality, unbiased information to counter malign influence and disinformation, support European integration, and strengthen democratic processes.
Strengthening democracy and governance involves expanding judicial reform; strengthening consolidated communities and expand quality service provision to their residents to advance Ukraine’s decentralization reform efforts; encouraging youth leadership and innovation.
